History has shown that, on average, about a quarter of the head coaches working in the NFL in any given year can expect to be replaced.
Such is life in the high-stakes world of professional football – the “not for long” moniker applies to both players and coaches.
Last season, there were seven coaching changes made by teams, three in season (Dennis Allen with the Saints, Robert Saleh with the Jets and Matt Eberflus with the Bears) and four after the year concluded (Antonio Pierce with the Raiders, Mike McCarthy with the Cowboys, Doug Pederson with the Jaguars and Jerod Mayo with the Patriots).
Since 2015, at least five head coaches have lost their jobs at the end of each season.
So who might be on the chopping block as we enter 2025? Here is a look at the coaches most at risk, from the mildly warm seat to the scorching hottest:
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10. Raheem Morris, Falcons
Atlanta went 8-9 last season in Morris’ first full year on the job, so it’s probably premature to be considering a change, especially with second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. entering his first full year on the job. Still, Atlanta plays in a weak division, so a step forward should be the expectation. The Falcons traded their 2026 first-round pick in a move up for pass rusher James Pearce Jr. in April’s draft, pairing him with another edge rusher chosen earlier in the first round, Jalon Walker. That’s a major investment by a team feeling some pressure to win now. Atlanta’s defense, which finished 27th in success rate allowed, according to analytics website Pro Football Focus, needs to take a significant step forward in Morris’ second season.
9. Jonathan Gannon, Cardinals
Gannon, the former Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator, has seen his defenses in Arizona finish 32nd and 27th in defensive expected points added in his first two years on the job. That’s led to a 12-22 record. The Cardinals added a good deal of resources to their defense this offseason, signing Josh Sweat away from the Eagles in free agency and drafting defensive tackle Walter Nolen in the first round. It will be on Gannon to get that unit turned around.
8. DeMeco Ryans, Texans
Houston was one of the more disappointing teams in the league last season, as second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud did not progress the way many had hoped he would after a promising rookie season. In response, Ryans fired offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. When a head coach starts doing that, it’s usually a sign trouble might not be far away for him, either. Ryans is a defensive-minded head coach, but if the Texans can’t find the right offensive coordinator, they might look for a head coach with a background on that side of the ball to get Stroud going in the right direction again.
7. Brian Callahan, Titans
The Titans went 3-14 in Callahan’s first season, “earning” them the No. 1 overall draft pick. Callahan is an offensive-minded coach, but Tennessee finished 27th in points per game last season. There will be pressure early in 2025 to show improvement, even if No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward wins the starting quarterback job out of training camp in a weak AFC South.
6. Shane Steichen, Colts
The old saying about quarterbacks – when you have two of them, you really don’t have any – applies to the Colts, with Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones. Steichen made a mess of benching Richardson last season for Joe Flacco, only to go back to Richardson, who surely lost the respect of his teammates when he checked himself out of a game. Indianapolis is 17-17 in Steichen’s two seasons on the job, so his record isn’t horrible.
5. Zac Taylor, Bengals
A team with as much talent as the Bengals shouldn’t miss the playoffs, but they have done exactly that the past two seasons. That’s why Taylor is on this list, despite taking Cincinnati to a Super Bowl and two AFC title games in his time on the job, going 46-52-1 in six seasons. The Bengals are notoriously slow starters, going 4-7 over the past three seasons in September. If that happens again in 2025, the calls for Taylor’s job will grow louder.
Mike Tomlin Steelers coach
Though Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has never finished below .500 in 18 seasons, his team has lost six straight postseason games. Matt Durisko, Associated Press file photo
4. Mike Tomlin, Steelers
You know the history – the Steelers have had three head coaches since 1969: Chuck Noll, Bill Cowher and Tomlin. All three have a Super Bowl championship on their resume. In Tomlin’s case, he’s never finished below .500 in 18 seasons. That’s impressive. But the Steelers have lost six straight postseason games, with their last win coming in 2016. Pittsburgh is 3-9 in the playoffs since going to Super Bowl XLV. The Steelers have been a good, but never great, team for most of that time. Now, they are depending on what’s left of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, which is not a position any franchise should want to find itself in. It feels like Tomlin and the Steelers could both use a fresh start at this point.
3. Mike McDaniel, Dolphins
The Dolphins are 28-23 in McDaniel’s three years on the job, but 0-2 in the playoffs. Beyond his record, McDaniel’s teams have developed the label of being soft, which is tough to shake. The culture in Miami has consistently been called into question. The Dolphins have been bad late in the season (7-13 record from Week 13 on under McDaniel) and continue to be unable to play in cold temperatures. McDaniel is a skilled play caller, but his absolute inability to have a functioning NFL offense when starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been out of the lineup is damning.
2. Kevin Stefanski, Browns
Stefanski has two 11-win seasons, and he won Coach of the Year after both those, in 2020 and 2023. The Browns, however, haven’t won a playoff game since the 2020 season. The Deshaun Watson trade has been a disaster, and Stefanski has to take some blame in that. Cleveland’s situation at quarterback – Kenny Pickett might be the Week 1 starter – is as bad as it gets in the league, which is a terrible look for an offensive-minded head coach.
Old home days (copy)
Giants coach Brian Daboll is under big pressure to win entering his fourth season in New York. Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
1. Brian Daboll, Giants
The St. Francis High School graduate won NFL Coach of the Year in his first season with the Giants in 2022, taking New York to the divisional round of the playoffs. It’s been a struggle since that point, though, as New York has gone 9-25 the past two seasons. The Giants opted to keep Daniel Jones at quarterback last year, which proved to be a big mistake. General manager Joe Schoen rebuilt the quarterback room this offseason, signing Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston and moving up in the first round of the draft to pick Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart. Now, it’s on Daboll to get the most out of all of them. He will have to save his job.
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