Duke forward Cooper Flagg, shown at the NBA draft combine last month, is expected to be the top pick Wednesday. The rest of the night will be a lot less certain. (Nam Y. Huh/AP)
NEW YORK — Let’s count the ways this year’s NBA draft will be defined by unexpected twists and turns.
One: Cooper Flagg, the consensus favorite to be the No. 1 pick, is only draft-eligible because he opted to graduate high school in three seasons. The 18-year-old do-everything forward, who led Duke to the Final Four this spring as a freshman, is on track to become the youngest top overall pick since LeBron James in 2003.
Two: The Dallas Mavericks earned the right to select Flagg even though they were slotted 11th in the draft lottery order and had just a 1.8 percent chance to receive the top pick. Instead of spending the summer angrily chanting “Fire Nico” at the front office that traded Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers in February, Mavericks fans will welcome a teenage prodigy with the potential to become a franchise player.
Three: Two years after winning the right to select French phenom Victor Wembanyama, the San Antonio Spurs jumped up in the draft order to nab the No. 2 pick. The Spurs’ good fortune should fuel trade speculation in the buildup to Wednesday night.
Four: The Philadelphia 76ers nearly had to send their draft pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder after a dreadful season, but they instead jumped up to the No. 3 pick on lottery night, allowing them to keep the selection, according to the terms of a 2020 trade. With Joel Embiid battling injuries and Paul George appearing to be past his prime, Philadelphia could add high-quality young talent or move the piece in a trade that could help remold its roster.
Five: Ace Bailey, a one-and-done scoring forward out of Rutgers who has been regarded as one of the draft class’s top talents, has declined and canceled team workouts in recent weeks. That cryptic strategy has fueled rumors that he is trying to steer his way to a team that will treat him as a priority during his rookie campaign.
Six: The Phoenix Suns’ overhauled front office agreed this weekend to acquire the No. 10 pick in a trade that sent Kevin Durant to the Houston Rockets.
Somehow, that’s only a short list of the moving parts to consider before the first-round festivities begin Wednesday at 8 p.m. Eastern. Here’s a mock draft of the lottery picks to help prepare for what could be an unpredictable evening:
Flagg and his family have said since his high school days that they want him to land in a winning environment once he reaches the NBA. Dallas, which has reached the playoffs or play-in tournament in five of the past six seasons, fits that bill despite its baffling Doncic trade.
Thanks to his excellent motor and sharp instincts, the 6-foot-9 Flagg looks like a strong defensive fit alongside franchise big man Anthony Davis. The Maine native should also get the chance to explore his offensive potential as a rookie with Kyrie Irving sidelined indefinitely after knee surgery. Despite his youth, Flagg will be a strong rookie of the year candidate given his polished all-around game and the high likelihood Dallas will be playing meaningful basketball next season.
The Spurs must confront a possible backcourt logjam if they draft the 19-year-old Harper, a skilled, 6-foot-6 scoring point guard, given they drafted Stephon Castle in 2024 and traded for De’Aaron Fox in February. While having “too many” quality guards is far better than having too few, Harper’s development will almost certainly be delayed if he is cast as Fox’s backup or moved off the ball.
San Antonio’s dream scenario should be to build a trade package around the No. 2 pick to acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo from the Milwaukee Bucks. Pairing Wembanyama with Antetokounmpo would give the Spurs an elite frontcourt duo, and it would alleviate the backcourt overlap, too. Of course, executing a landscape-altering blockbuster is far easier said than done.
The 76ers must acknowledge they are operating with an outdated roster model: Building a deep and athletic team capable of playoff success has become increasingly difficult with “Big Three” salary commitments to Embiid, George and Tyrese Maxey. What’s more, Embiid’s deliberate style and lack of defensive mobility would have been easily exploited by teams such as the Indiana Pacers in this year’s postseason.
Embiid and George are so expensive that it could take years for Philadelphia to fully pivot, but drafting the 19-year-old Edgecombe, an explosive athlete with good defensive bona fides at 6-foot-5, would be a positive first step. Maxey, Edgecombe and 2024 first-round pick Jared McCain have complementary games and would form an intriguing core capable of carrying the franchise’s next era.
Charlotte is back in the lottery because LaMelo Ball endured his third consecutive injury-plagued season. At this point, it’s clear the Hornets can’t trust Ball to be a reliable franchise player and should seriously explore trade possibilities so they can reorient their roster around forward Brandon Miller.
Johnson, a 6-6 shooting guard who averaged 19.9 points per game and made nearly 40 percent of his three-pointers at Texas, would work whether or not Charlotte is ready to trade Ball. Charles Lee oversaw a three-point-heavy offense in his first season as Hornets coach, and he could afford to give Johnson, 19, a green light as a rookie in hopes of cultivating a dynamic partnership with Miller.
Duke offered an easy pitch for NBA scouts: Come for Flagg, stay for Knueppel. The 19-year-old Wisconsin native thrived on and off the ball for the Blue Devils and exhibited a tough-minded, high-intelligence game during his freshman season.
The Jazz’s deep rebuilding effort has yet to pay dividends years after it traded Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, and it finds itself needing bankable talent. Knueppel should be able to contribute as a rookie given his 6-foot-7 size, and there’s a chance he blossoms into an all-star given his impressive skill package.
If Bailey is indeed trying to force his way to a specific destination, he could do a lot worse than the Wizards. Though Washington finished in the Eastern Conference’s basement last season, its multiyear rebuilding effort is starting to take shape around several recent lottery picks.
Missing from the Wizards’ core of the future is an alpha wing scorer. The 18-year-old Bailey faces questions about his maturity, shot selection and distribution skills, but he projects as a high-usage scorer and theoretically has star potential. Learning on the job is the best path for the 6-foot-10 Bailey to reach his ceiling, and Washington has lots of minutes to offer a player such as him as it enters another developmental season.
Joe Dumars, the Pelicans’ new president, has inherited an absolute mess: Zion Williamson’s injury issues have continued, Brandon Ingram was shipped to the Toronto Raptors at the trade deadline, Dejounte Murray missed almost all of last season because of injury, and there’s an enormous hole in the frontcourt.
The good news: Maluach, 18, is perfectly equipped to file an enormous hole thanks to his 7-foot height and 7-foot-6 wingspan. With the size and length to be an all-defensive center, Maluach is a high-character prospect whose game has improved rapidly in recent years. The South Sudan native is mostly a dunker on the offensive end, but he would bring a level of back-line stability to New Orleans that has been greatly lacking.
The Nets have traded away Durant, Irving, James Harden and Mikal Bridges in recent years, leaving them without anyone who remotely resembles a franchise player. Fears, 18, might not last until Brooklyn picks, but he represents the type of high-upside swing it should be eager to take. The 6-foot-4 guard was a productive freshman at Oklahoma, and he really hit his stride as a scorer down the stretch of the season.
During Masai Ujiri’s tenure as team president, the Raptors have often targeted mold-breaking prospects in the draft. Demin, 19, fits that bill as a 6-foot-9 lead guard who is naturally wired as a distributor. While Demin’s poor outside shooting makes him a somewhat polarizing player, Toronto’s backcourt could benefit from his size and versatility.
The swap can’t be officially completed until the NBA’s calendar resets in July, but the Rockets agreed to trade this pick to the Suns in Sunday’s deal for Durant.
Phoenix’s new leadership regime finds itself with an illogical roster composition that includes countless scoring guards and little else. With such a clear need for frontcourt help and a long runway to retool after cutting their losses with Durant, the Suns could target the 6-foot-9 Essengue, an 18-year-old French forward who is playing professionally in Germany, thanks to his versatility and defensive potential.
The Blazers made progress after multiple tanking seasons thanks in part to Toumani Camara and Deni Avdija, who brought much-needed competitiveness to a roster in transition. Joe Cronin, Portland’s general manager, doubled down on a hard-playing culture by agreeing to acquire Jrue Holiday from the Boston Celtics in a Monday trade. Holiday is set to join a fairly crowded guard rotation in Portland, but there is still room for the showy, 6-foot-6 Jakucionis because the 19-year-old’s savvy on-ball playmaking would complement the Blazers’ other backcourt options.
The Bulls made the right call by trading away veterans Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan in favor of collecting young and intriguing perimeter talent. Now, Chicago finds itself weighing center Nikola Vucevic’s future and needing additional paint presence. The 20-year-old Queen, an undersized big man at 6-foot-10 who can score in a variety of ways, would plug a clear need.
The Hawks opened minutes for a forward such as the 6-foot-8 Bryant by sending De’Andre Hunter to the Cleveland Cavaliers at the trade deadline. With Atlanta’s scoring hierarchy mostly set, Bryant, 19, would plug in as a low-usage shooter on offense whose size and length could translate into high-impact defense down the road.
Murray-Boyles, an undersized big man at 6-foot-7, has landed the coveted “analytics darling” tag this year thanks to his excellent defensive productivity and impact on winning. San Antonio should be targeting role players with this pick — especially if it keeps the No. 2 selection — and the 20-year-old Murray projects as a valuable grinder who will embrace the dirty work necessary to make life easier for Wembanyama.