The 2024-25 NBA season is in the books, and all eyes now turn to the 2025 NBA Draft on Wednesday and Thursday. The Utah Jazz hold the fifth overall pick– their highest in over a decade. With speculation swirling since the lottery, the time is finally here.
This is not my prediction of what I think will happen; it's simply what I believe is the best-case scenario for the Jazz and what I'm hoping for.
With the fifth pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, the Utah Jazz select… Ace Bailey.
Ace Bailey flexes
Jan 29, 2025; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard Ace Bailey (4) reacts after dunking the ball against the Northwestern Wildcats during the first half at Welsh-Ryan Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images / David Banks-Imagn Images
It is no secret that I’m extremely bullish on Bailey, the 6-foot-8 eighteen-year-old from Rutgers. He has been a polarizing topic of conversation for much of the cycle, which has boiled over with his agent Omar Cooper, former Atlanta Hawk Sharife Cooper’s dad, rebuffing teams’ attempts to get him into their buildings for a workout.
This has seemingly upset some and drawn Bailey’s character into question. I do not know Bailey, nor do I know how he is wired, but what I can say is that every report about Bailey the individual and the basketball player has allayed any concerns I had.
By all accounts, including his college head coach, Bailey is a great kid who loves to play basketball, works extremely hard, and has an infectiously positive attitude. Maybe I’m wrong on this, but this to me feels like a case of an eighteen-year-old getting bad advice and representation.
Now that that’s out of the way, let’s talk about Bailey the basketball player. Flat out, he is one of the most talented and natural shot makers you will ever find. He has a picturesque shooting form, a feathery soft touch with either hand, and an almost uncontestably high release point, which allows him to shoot over defenders. He has advanced footwork getting into his shots and is an explosive athlete, especially in the open floor.
To demonstrate Bailey's crazy shotmaking, he shot 39% on catch-and-shoot threes, 46% on long twos, and 61% at the rim. He had some inconsistencies, particularly off the dribble and at the free throw line, but his shotmaking talent is elite and something that can't be taught.
Ace Bailey vs Northwestern [01/29/25]
37 PTS (13-20 FG, 5-8 3P), 6 REB & 3 BLK.
*10 total dribbles* pic.twitter.com/Cza2eoXsi8
— Mohamed (@mcfNBA) June 21, 2025
Equally exciting is Bailey's defense. He's a terrific shot blocker who uses his 7-foot wingspan and twitchy athleticism to make an impact on that end. Despite poor advanced metrics on the surface, Bailey was crucial to keeping Rutgers’ defense even somewhat afloat. With him off the floor, their defense cratered to the tune of 9 points worse per 40 minutes, a swing that put Bailey in the 91st percentile in college basketball.
I’m not saying the defense is perfect. Bailey had some lapses and too many moments where he was out of position. I was always impressed with Bailey’s effort, though, and I never questioned if he was playing hard. This is evidenced by Rutgers’ rebound, steal, and block numbers all being better with Bailey on the court.
Two and a half minutes of Ace Bailey defensive highlights for your morning.
4.1 BLK% (4.6% in B1G play)
1.7 STL%
-8.8 point defensive rating swing (91st percentile in CBB) pic.twitter.com/wTgBiZKbir
— AJ (@AJ3Jazz) May 25, 2025
Offensively, Bailey needs to turn many of his long twos into threes. This simple adjustment would significantly boost his shot diet from an analytical perspective. He needs to improve his handle. Doing so will unlock a lot for him offensively and make him less reliant on difficult shots.
He’s also a prime candidate to thrive in NBA spacing. Last and most important to his ceiling as a player, Bailey needs to become a quicker and better decision-maker. This is something many young wings struggle with, though, and with the right coaching and development, it’s something Bailey can improve on.
As for why this is the best-case scenario for the Jazz, Bailey has been viewed as one of the top three players in this draft class for years. He's a guy teams get excited about years in advance because of his skill set as an elite shot maker, confident competitor, smooth athlete, and disruptive defender, while being one of the youngest players in this class.
For a Jazz team that desperately needs a player who can develop into a star, that desperately needs someone with marketability to get the fanbase excited, that desperately needs some defensive upside following two consecutive seasons of finishing dead last in the league in total defense, and that has a strong foundation in place to get the most out of its young players, Ace Bailey would be a grand slam selection, if he’s on the board, for the Utah Jazz.
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