(Photo: Jacob Morley, 247Sports)
We are right in the midst of the dreaded NFL dead zone, and I'm desperately trying to find any sort of football content to keep me going. We got some fun clips out of Packers minicamp, but now that is over, and we have about a month until training camp begins. So close yet so far.
As much as I dislike this time of year, I do like the fact that it gives me a little more freedom in what I want to talk about regarding the Packers. An exercise I like to do every summer is look at the roster and pinpoint a few players that could be the difference for this team between another solid season and being true Super Bowl contenders.
The roster is in a pretty good spot right now, but there are definitely a few areas that give me varying levels of concern. What stood out to me most were the wide receivers, cornerbacks, and edge rushers. I think there is one player in each of those groups that could determine how we see the group as a whole.
Let's start with an obvious one – Lukas Van Ness. Since being selected 13th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, Van Ness has been a disappointment. I wish I didn't have to sound so harsh, but the numbers don't lie.
Through two seasons in the NFL, Van Ness has 65 tackles, 42 pressures, 7 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, and 16 QB hits. That simply isn't going to cut it.
Aidan Hutchinson played in five games last year and recorded 45 pressures. Yes, Hutchinson is incredible, but he had more pressures in five games than Van Ness has in two full seasons!
The most frustrating part for me is that if you just looked at him standing on the sidelines and saw how massive he is, you'd have to assume the guy is unblockable. There is a reason why his nickname is Hercules. Size is absolutely not the issue. It's how he uses that size that seems to be the problem. He must add to his pass rush bag in a major way, and I think that is going to come down to coaching.
The Packers hired former Patriots defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington as their new defensive line coach and have extremely high expectations. While the team obviously hasn't come straight out and said this, it seems like the former defensive line coach (Jason Rebrovich) just simply wasn't getting the job done. All indications are that Covington is coming in with a completely different approach, and the hope is that we see Van Ness playing a new (and better) style of football in 2025.
Last year, the Packers finished with the 8th most sacks in the NFL, which sounds great, but when you dig a little deeper, you see some serious underlying issues. Including the playoffs, the Packers played 18 games last year. They recorded only four games with four or more sacks. Out of their 45 sacks, 20 came in only three games. They weren't nearly consistent enough, and that's because there is nobody opposite Rashan Gary creating consistent pressure. Lukas Van Ness has to become that guy. If he doesn't do it this year, it may be time to accept that we missed big with the 13th overall pick.
Moving on to the offensive side of the ball, let's talk about everyone's favorite hypothetical WR1, Dontayvion Wicks.
After a very promising rookie season, everything seemed to fall off the tracks a bit for Wicks in his sophomore campaign. There were a few flashes, but for the most part, the 2024 season will be remembered for the passes he didn't catch more than the ones he did.
Wicks had an 18% drop percentage last year, which was dead last in the NFL (amongst players who had 34 or more targets). He finished the year with nine total drops, which was tied for the 3rd most in football. This can't continue.
Much like Van Ness, Wicks has all the tools to be a phenomenal NFL wide receiver. When it comes to route running and creating separation, almost nobody is more elite than him. According to Sleeper, not a single wide receiver was better at creating separation against zone defense than Wicks, and only two players were better against man coverage. Defenses can't cover him. If he simply catches the football, I truly believe he can be a Pro Bowl caliber player, and that may be modest.
Looking at the wide receiver group as a whole, there still is no clear-cut WR1, and you can say that we don't need one as much as you want. The bottom line is you're lying to yourself if you think we wouldn't be better if we had one. All you have to do is look at all the years with Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, and even Greg Jennings (sigh).
I'd be happy to see any of the wide receivers step up and take over, but I don't think any of them have the upside that Wicks possesses. He has all the details of the position down. If he can just start catching the ball, I think he can legitimately be a star.
Let's jump back to the defense for one more fan favorite – Carrington Valentine. If football were only about vibes, Valentine would already be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He has the exact kind of energy and F you attitude you want your starting cornerback to have.
Like Wicks, Valentine had a very impressive rookie season and then took a bit of a step back in year two. I wouldn't say it was as drastic a step back as Wicks took, but I was still hoping to see more out of Valentine in his second season.
The strangest part for me wasn't even his play on the field. It was that he wasn't playing nearly as much as I thought he would, especially with Jaire Alexander missing so much time. Valentine played on only 50.2% of the defensive snaps last year. He played over 62% as a rookie. I was shocked to see that even Eric Stokes played more than him last year. I understand that Stokes is a former 1st round pick, but at this point, I think Valentine is clearly the better player.
This year, it doesn't look like the Packers are going to have any other choice but to rely on Valentine as a day one starter, and for the record, I have very little issue with that. He has great size and length for a corner and knows how to get his hands on the football. As a rookie, he broke up nine passes. I think he can be that player again if he's given the opportunity to play all of the snaps. It's very difficult to play corner when you're constantly going in and out of the game. That position is all about instincts, and that comes from being out there on the field.
With Jaire no longer on the team, all eyes are going to be on the new cornerback group, and I believe Valentine is the X-factor of the bunch. If he struggles, it will send a ripple effect across the whole secondary that could be catastrophic. It looks like we're already relying on Keisean Nixon, generally a slot guy, to play on the outside. If we then also have to kick Nate Hobbs, another slot guy, outside as well, it could get ugly.
On the flip side, if Valentine can take advantage of this opportunity and become a reliable every-down player, this entire secondary all of a sudden feels a lot better. I trust Hobbs in the slot, and Nixon showed enough last year on the outside that I believe he'll, at the very least, hold up there. It's going to come down to Valentine and whether or not he, a former 7th-round pick, can prove everybody wrong and be a difference maker in the NFL.
Eli Berkovits is in his 6th season covering the Green Bay Packers for Packer Report. Follow him on Twitter @bookofeli_nfl or contact him via email at berkelliot@yahoo.com