For the final time before the 2025 NBA Draft comes and goes, let's get into your latest Sixers questions in another weekly mailbag, talking draft trade possibilities and whether or not the Sixers can count on a lottery pick to help them win games. Time to dive in:
*From @Palpably_Unfair:*What is the history of top-five picks for teams with playoff aspirations? I'd be interested in an average minute count for the rookies on those teams, how many games those players started, and how they contributed in the playoffs.
This is an excellent question, and so I looked back at the first five picks of each of the last five drafts. I found five players that ended up on teams which ended up vaguely playoff competitive or better. I will go in reverse chronological order:
• Zaccharie Risacher, picked No. 1 by the Atlanta Hawks in 2024, averaged 24.6 minutes per game and started in 73 of his 75 appearances. His role and production grew as the season went on; in the final 15 games of the season Risacher averaged 16.1 points for a team that secured a Play-In Tournament spot with a 40-42 record despite losing burgeoning star Jalen Johnson to a season-ending injury.
• Reed Sheppard, picked No. 4 overall by the Houston Rockets in 2024, averaged 12.6 minutes per game and started in three of his 52 appearances. With Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green among the heavy-minute players in Houston's guard rotation, it never seemed like Sheppard would go wire to wire in their rotation. But it was a surprise that he never became much of a factor, even spending some time in the G League. Sheppard is expected to step into an important bench role behind VanVleet after Green and Dillon Brooks were traded for Kevin Durant.
• Chet Holmgren, picked No. 2 overall by the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2022, missed his first full NBA season due to an injury. But the following year, he averaged 29.4 minutes per game while making 82 starts for a 57-win Thunder team which earned the top seed in the Western Conference. Holmgren averaged 16.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 2.3 blocks per game, anchoring an elite defense. However, Holmgren's efficiency went from stellar in the regular season to subpar in the playoffs, as Oklahoma City lost in the second round with home-court advantage.
The following season, however...
• Keegan Murray, picked No. 4 overall by the Sacramento Kings in 2022, averaged 29.8 minutes per game and started in 78 of his 80 appearances. Murray had an advantage over most rookies, as he was drafted as a 22-year-old. But he routinely took on the most challenging perimeter assignments for the Kings on defense and was a terrific three-point shooter. The Kings lost in Game 7 in the first round of the playoffs at the hands of a Stephen Curry heater.
• Scottie Barnes, picked No. 4 overall by the Toronto Raptors in 2021, averaged 35.4 minutes per game and started in all 74 of his appearances. Barnes' per-game averages of 15.3 points, 7.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists while guarding multiple positions for a 48-34 Raptors team were enough to win the Rookie of the Year Award. The fifth-seeded Raptors lost to the Sixers in six games in the first round of the playoffs; Barnes struggled offensively in those contests.
Of course, the sample size is inherently small because top-five picks are very rarely made by teams that are even postseason contenders at all in the following season. If a team hits on a pick this high, there is no reason the prospect they choose cannot be a meaningful contributor in April and May. But before the Sixers make their own decision with the No. 3 overall pick, they should keep in mind that it is really hard to find a 19- or 20-year-old capable of contributing at that sort of scale in their first season.
MORE: Predicting Sixers' upcoming player/team option decisions
*From @ready4warG1:*Do you think the Sixers are being too obvious with VJ Edgecombe or do they genuinely want him? I just remember Daryl Morey's comments last year about not tipping their hand at all and keeping it a mystery and wonder if they just abandoned that strategy for this pick.
Morey has expressed a desire to keep the team's draft-related intentions under wraps, but that is easier said than done in the spot they are in now. Keeping workouts secret and successfully preventing any leaks about prospects of choice is far easier when the Sixers are picking in the mid-to-late portion of the first round, when well over a dozen players could conceivably be options depending on how the earlier picks go, than when you have the first pick of the draft without a consensus option. Everyone knows Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper will be the first two names off the board; it is natural for the vast majority of draft reporters to begin investigating what the Sixers plan to do in a draft that starts at their No. 3 pick.
So, I do not think Edgecombe being the clear favorite according to reports over the last few weeks is inherently a red flag. There was no way the Sixers were going to take this down to the wire without anybody knowing which of Edgecombe, Ace Bailey, Tre Johnson or Kon Knueppel had the inside track on being the pick.
I believe the Sixers' interest in Edgecombe is genuine. However, if the Sixers were running an elaborate scheme to drum up interest from other teams to trade up to make sure they can get a player of their choosing, Edgecombe would be the right player to fake interest in. The Charlotte Hornets, right behind the Sixers at No. 4 overall, are reportedly blown away by Edgecombe. The Washington Wizards are owners of the No. 6 overall and No. 18 overall picks; if they moved up it would likely be for Edgecombe as well.
Maybe the truth is something in the middle: Edgecombe is the Sixers' preferred pick at No. 3 overall, and if a good trade offer does not present itself they will happily pick him, but he does not have such an overwhelming lead over Bailey, Johnson and/or Knueppel on their board that the team would resist an appetizing offer to slide down a few spots, collect an additional asset or two and pick one of the other prospects.
As I have been reiterating since the lottery results were determined six weeks ago, sticking and picking is always the most likely outcome for a team, even if there are clear reasons to move down. The clock is ticking.
MORE: Ranking Sixers' most likely draft day trade partners
From @DrNick513: Lots of trade talk with the No. 3 pick, but what are some trade options with No. 35?
This is sometimes a challenge to predict before the draft, as it depends on whether or not certain prospects fall on the board relative to their expected outcomes. But the NBA moving its draft to a two-day format will facilitate more significant trade conversations surrounding picks early in the second round, which will benefit the Sixers should they want to move out.
I struggle to envision the Sixers moving down from No. 35 -- trading the pick for a lesser second-rounder in this draft and another one in a future draft, for example -- given the shallow nature of the class after many high-profile players on the bubble of entering the pros opted to instead be collegiate returners. The fact that the Sixers are in a very good place when it comes to future second-round picks, even extending beyond the No. 35 overall pick, plays a major role in that as well.
At that point, there are two options outside of making a pick. The first would be moving up, likely into the back end of the first round. The Sixers have enough ammunition to do it with a very strong collection of high-upside second-rounders in future years:
Year Second-round picks
2025 -Own (No. 35)
2026 None
2027 -Own-More favorable of PHX/GSW
2028 -Own-GSW-DET (top-55 protected)
2029 -Own
2030 -WAS-More favorable of PHX/POR
2031 -Own
2032 -Own
If the Sixers need to part with a premium second-rounder and an additional one with lesser upside to move up from No. 35 into the mid-20s, they have the capacity to do it. Among the possible landing spots, depending on how the board has shaken out to that point: Oklahoma City at No. 24, Orlando at No. 25, Phoenix at No. 29 and the Los Angeles Clippers at No. 30.
The other option would be to trade out entirely. Even in a draft class that had its depth decimated, odds are at least some teams will have a player they covet on the board this early in the second round. If the Sixers are not one of them, they could look to flip this pick for future second-rounders. The goal should be to get one in 2026, as they are currently slated to not have any picks in either round of next year's proceedings. I previously identified the Sacramento Kings as a possible trade partner here, but there would likely be other teams with interest as well. But that will depend on the board.
MORE: How to craft realistic Sixers trades & why Quentin Grimes is at the center of it all
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