The Miami Heat knows roster changes need to be made. After all, the Heat has been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, has needed to qualify for the playoffs through the NBA’s play-in tournament in each of the last three seasons and finished this past regular season with a losing record for the first time since the 2018-19 season and just the sixth time in team president Pat Riley’s 30 seasons with the organization.
“Well, I think we do have to make changes,” Riley said during his season-ending news conference in May. “There’s no doubt. There has to be some change.”
But it remains to be seen what those changes will be for the Heat this offseason after coming up empty in another pursuit of 15-time All-Star forward Kevin Durant in recent days. The Phoenix Suns are trading Durant to the Houston Rockets, choosing the Rockets’ offer over the Heat’s proposed trade package.
The Heat now moves on to the NBA Draft, which will take place this week at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
The first round of the draft will be held Wednesday (8 p.m., ABC and ESPN). The Heat holds the 20th overall pick in the first round of this year’s two-round draft (acquired from the Golden State Warriors in the February Jimmy Butler trade), with that selection expected to come between 9:40 p.m. and 10:10 p.m. on Wednesday with five minutes between picks in the first round.
The second round of the draft will come on Thursday (8 ET, ESPN). The Heat does not currently hold a pick in the second round of this year’s draft but there remains the possibility of the Heat buying or trading for a second-round selection (any team that purchases a second-round pick becomes hard-capped at the second apron for the entirety of that upcoming season because any team that sends out cash in a deal faces that limitation under the current CBA).
With plenty of questions still to answer this offseason, the first big question the Heat needs to address is whether it will take advantage of its first-round pick to add a cost-friendly player on a rookie-scale contract on Wednesday or instead trade it after making a first-round selection in each of the last three drafts (Nikola Jovic in 2022, Jaime Jaquez Jr. in 2023 and Kel’el Ware in 2024). The last time the Heat came out of four consecutive drafts with a first-round pick was the stretch that included Caron Butler in 2002, Dwyane Wade in 2003, Dorell Wright in 2004 and Wayne Simien in 2005.
While NBA rules prevent teams from being without first-round selections in two consecutive years, the Heat is permitted to trade the 20th pick ahead of this week’s draft because it owns its first-round pick in next year’s draft.
One reason the Heat could choose to deal this year’s pick is to free up additional tradeable future first-round selections, according to a league source.
Among the reasons the Heat did not land Durant is because it didn’t want to include additional draft capital in a deal beyond this year’s 20th overall pick. Why? Because trading future draft picks would have tied up other draft selections it could throw in a potential trade down the road, as the Heat chose to preserve this draft capital flexibility by drawing a line at not offering multiple first-round picks in a trade for Durant.
With NBA teams only allowed to trade picks up to seven drafts into the future, the only unprotected first-round selections that the Heat currently has available to deal away is this year’s selection at No. 20 and its 2030 or 2031 pick — not both because of league rules prohibiting teams from being without future first-round picks in back-to-back years.
The Heat’s 2032 first-round selection will become eligible to be included in a trade following this week’s draft since it will then be within the seven-draft window required to be deemed tradeable. This would give the Heat up to two unprotected first-round selections it could throw in a deal following this year’s draft — 2030 and 2032.
The Heat’s 2026, 2027, 2028 and 2029 first-round picks are currently not eligible to be traded because of the deal it made to acquire guard Terry Rozier from the Charlotte Hornets in January 2024. To add Rozier, the Heat traded Kyle Lowry and a lottery-protected 2027 first-round pick to the Hornets that would turn into an unprotected 2028 first-round selection if it’s not conveyed in 2027.
With the Heat owing a first-round selection to the Hornets as early as in 2027 and as late as in 2028, that prohibits Miami from trading an unprotected pick from 2026 through 2029 because NBA teams are not allowed to be without first-round selections in two consecutive years.
A hypothetical trade that has the Heat sending this year’s 20th overall pick for a first-round selection in the 2027 draft would allow the Heat to put a 2028, 2030 and 2032 first-round selection in a trade following this year’s draft. But such a deal would likely come with some protections that would complicate things.
The Heat could also use this year’s pick to try to get the Hornets to amend the protections on the selection sent out in the Rozier trade, which could create some draft capital flexibility for Miami.
If the Heat makes the 20th pick on Wednesday and keeps the player, he’s slotted to make as much as $3.7 million this upcoming season.
During the past few years, the No. 20 pick in the NBA Draft has produced mixed results. The past 10 players who have been taken at No. 20 are Jaylon Tyson last year, Cam Whitmore in 2023, Malaki Branham in 2022, Jalen Johnson in 2021, Precious Achiuwa in 2020, Matisse Thybulle in 2019, Josh Okogie in 2018, Harry Giles III in 2017, Caris LeVert in 2016 and Delon Wright in 2015.
Among the prospects projected to be drafted in the Heat’s range in the first round this year are French big Joan Beringer, Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr., Colorado State wing Nique Clifford, Washington State wing Cedric Coward, BYU guard Egor Demin, French big Noa Essengue, Saint Joseph big Rasheer Fleming, Spanish wing Hugo Gonzalez, Illinois guard Kasparas Jakucionis, Creighton big Ryan Kalkbrenner, UConn wing Liam McNeeley, South Carolina big Collin Murray-Boyles, Georgia big Asa Newell, French wing Noah Penda, North Carolina wing Drake Powell, Stanford big Maxime Raynaud, Michigan State guard Jase Richardson, Illinois wing Will Riley, Israeli guard Ben Saraf, Georgetown big Thomas Sorber, Arkansas wing Adou Thiero, French guard Nolan Traore and Michigan big Danny Wolf.
Whatever happens in the draft this week, the Heat’s offseason work is just beginning.
Following the draft, most contract options around the NBA need to be decided on by Sunday and free agency opens around the league on Monday. The Heat then opens summer league action on July 5 in San Francisco before taking part in Las Vegas Summer League in mid-July.
HEAT DRAFT WATCH PARTY
The Heat is hosting an NBA Draft party at Kaseya Center for Wednesday’s first round. The event begins at 7 p.m.
“The free event will be hosted in the arena bowl and will feature immersive activities, including free throws and competitions on the Pat Riley Court, caricature drawings, a pop-up Heat Store, special giveaways, exclusive photo opportunities, and more,” the Heat said in a press release.
Former Heat center and current Heat executive Alonzo Mourning and Ware are among those expected to be in attendance for Wednesday’s draft party. Fans must RSVP to attend the event. More details can be found at Heat.com/DraftParty.