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ESPN’s Joe Lunardi projects Florida as No. 1 overall seed in way-too-early bracketology

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ESPN’s Joe Lunardi is putting more stock in Florida‘s bid to repeat as college basketball national champions after a splash transfer portal addition and key returns from the NBA Draft.

On April 30, Lunardi shared his initial way-too-early bracketology projections. At that time, he had Todd Golden‘s Gators as a projected No. 3 seed in the South. On Tuesday, Lunardi shared updated way-too-early projections. UF is now the projected No. 1 overall seed and top team in the East Region. As an added bonus, the Gators could be looking at playing opening-round games in Tampa if they snag a high seed again.

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Lunardi wrote about why Florida received a significant bump:

No one would question the significant personnel losses incurred by defending NCAA champion Florida. Replacing a backcourt of Walter Clayton Jr., Will Richard and Alijah Martin is no easy task: The trio combined for better than 46 points per game, and Clayton made numerous clutch shots in the Gators’ title-winning season. ESPN 100 freshmen Alexander Lloyd and Cornelius Ingram Jr. will help fill the void, but it’s two stellar transfer portal additions — Xaivian Lee (Princeton) and the surprising entry Boogie Fland (Arkansas) — who make the Gators a legitimate threat to repeat. Add returning big man Alex Condon to an already loaded frontcourt, and it’s no wonder Florida jumps up to the top line. This team has all the pieces to make a Final Four return and win the title again. The Gators won’t be overwhelming favorites like Billy Donovan’s repeat champions in 2007, but the 2026 Gators will be in the mix next March.

Lee committed on April 16, ahead of Lunardi’s April 30 projections. The Fland commitment, however, did not come until May 20. A week later, Alex Condon announced he was withdrawing from the NBA Draft and returning to Florida for the 2025-26 season. In addition to Condon, the Gators return talented bigs Rueben Chinyelu, Thomas Haugh and Micah Handlogten, who were all part of last year’s rotation.

Bracketology projections are appropriately labeled “way-too-early” as we’re still months out from 2025-26 college basketball being played, but it’s safe to say UF will enter the year with expectations to contend for another championship.

Men's Bracketology: 2026 NCAA Tournament https://t.co/vW0tBZwWH5. No one would question the significant personnel losses incurred by defending NCAA champion Florida.

Replacing a backcourt of Walter Clayton Jr., Will Richard and Alijah Martin is no easy task: The trio…

— Joe Lunardi (@ESPNLunardi) June 24, 2025

Andrew Olson

Andrew writes about sports to fund his love of live music and collection of concert posters. He strongly endorses the Hall of Fame campaigns of Fred Taylor and Andruw Jones.