Wizards six pick photo illustration with Stephen Curry, Marcus Smart, Buddy Hield, Mo Bamba and Obi Toppin
Wizards six pick photo illustration with Stephen Curry, Marcus Smart, Buddy Hield, Mo Bamba and Obi Toppin
What should the Washington Wizards expect from their first pick — No. 6 overall — in this year’s NBA draft?
It is difficult to project, given the unpredictable development curves of 19-, 20- and 21-year-olds. But looking backward can offer a better idea of the range of outcomes for whom Washington selects.
The Washington Post examined the career outcomes for players selected from No. 6 through 10 (the range of prospects the Wizards will choose from Wednesday night) from 2006 to 2020. The last four drafts were omitted to avoid analyzing players whose roles remain unclear.
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The result: a group of 75 players that were then grouped based on their NBA tenures.
Just four of the 75 players — about 5 percent — were stars.
Twelve players were high-level starters.
Thirteen became regular starters.
Twenty-three were mere contributors.
And 23 players, about 30 percent, fizzled out into busts.
Let’s start with the stars, rare talents that can be the best players for contenders. Just four players make this group, led by two-time MVP and four-time NBA champion Stephen Curry. A not-so-fun fact for Wizards fans: Curry was drafted seventh in 2009, two picks after what would have been Washington’s pick (the Wizards traded it as part of a deal for Randy Foye and Mike Miller).
The next group is high-level starters, who are usually the second or third-best players on their teams. Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray is far behind teammate Nikola Jokic, but Murray’s contributions were integral to the team’s 2023 title.
Starters are usually somewhere between the fourth and sixth-best players on their teams, pieces that impact winning but can’t drive a team to success. Look at Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who started every playoff game for two title teams, the 2020 Los Angeles Lakers and 2023 Nuggets.
Caldwell-Pope has never averaged more than 15 points per game in a season but offers valuable ancillary abilities such as three-point shooting and perimeter defense.
Contributors usually come off the bench for good teams but have long — often profitable — careers as role players. Al-Farouq Aminu, drafted eighth in 2010, averaged under 10 points per game in 10 of his 11 seasons but played 711 regular season games and made more than $70 million across his career, per Spotrac.
Busts do not carve out long-term NBA careers. This group features another painful reminder for Wizards fans. Washington last had the No. 6 pick in 2011. It took Jan Vesely, who played just three seasons in the NBA before going overseas.
This year’s Wizards are run by a different front office than the one that took Vesely. The new group, led by President Michael Winger and General Manager Will Dawkins, has explicitly stated that they primarily hope to build this team through the draft. There’s merit to the strategy but heavy risk, especially for a team that still needs a blue-chip star.
Players were grouped based on career achievements and advanced metrics. Because these metrics are imperfect, the opinions of Post reporters and editors were introduced to give the best historical representation.
Stars: Players who had at least five all-star selections.
High-level starters: Players who made at least one all-star team. Marcus Smart, Jamal Murray, Mikal Bridges and CJ McCollum were moved up into this group because of their career accomplishments.
Starters: Players who recorded at least 0.04 win shares per game (as measured by Basketball Reference) and started at least 50 percent of their career games. Buddy Hield was moved up into this group.
Contributors: Players who recorded at least 0.03 win shares per game and played at least 300 career games. Willie Cauley-Stein, Corey Brewer, Austin Rivers, Elfrid Payton, Brandon Knight, Justice Winslow, Jonathan Isaac and Dennis Smith Jr. were moved up into this group.
Busts: The remaining players. Mo Bamba was moved down into this group.