Matheus Cunha officially became a Manchester United player after the Red Devils paid the £62.5m release clause thatWolverhampton Wanderers had set.
Reports also suggest that United are interested in adding Bryan Mbeumo as their second new attacker this summer, and that the player is willing to move to Manchester.
Last season, Cunha and Mbeumo were two of the top scorers in the Premier League.
The former scored 15 goals, while the latter scored 20 for Brentford.
United are about to sign two players who have scored a combined 35 goals—thats massive.
Both players have proven themselves to be attackers who can carry their teams attack.
Cunha was arguably Wolves most important attacking player, while Mbeumo led his teams goal contributions last season.
From a tactical standpoint, they appear to be the players that United are looking for to play in the double-ten positions, or as nines when needed, in Ruben Amorim’s 3-4-3 system.
They have both proven themselves to be good Premier League-calibre players.
However, there are some concerns about them, due to their respective costs.
The concern about signing these players for large sums of money (Mbeumo is reported to have cost around £55m) is not about their quality.
Rather, it is the idea that Manchester United are paying a premium price for their contributions last season, despite underlying numbers showing that they are not 35-goal producers and that this pattern is unsustainable.
So, the concern is not whether they are good enough for United, but whether they are really worth the money United are paying.
Thats what this player analysis article is here to explore.
Overperforming NPxG Is Not Sustainable
In short, unless you are a player of the calibre of Lionel Messi, Harry Kane or Kylian Mbappé, it is very unlikely that you will consistently overperform your expected goals.
Do you think Cunha and Mbeumo will reach that level?
I would assume not.
From 2021/2022 to last season, there were 51 cases in which a player outperformed their non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) by more than +3.
This includes Cunha, who had +5.4, and Mbeumo, who had +7.5 last season.
However, of those 51 cases, only six players had more than two such instances.
These were Phil Foden, Son Heung-min, Jarrod Bowen, James Ward-Prowse, James Maddison and Rodri (yes, the Ballon dOr winner).
78% of cases, or 39 players, only had one season in which they overperformed by more than +3 NPxG.
If we narrow the numbers again to players who overperformed their NPxG while scoring more than 10 goals on multiple occasions, the list is reduced to just Son, Foden and Bowen.
The case is interesting.
After overperforming his NPxG by +7.1 in the 2021/2022 season, Sons numbers dropped to -0.1.
They rocketed again to +4.6 in the 2023/2024 season before decreasing to +0.4 last season—a rollercoaster ride.
Foden and Bowen had different cases.
The former collected +5.1 NPxG, overperformed, and scored 11 non-penalty goals in the 2022/2023 season.
The following season, when he was named the best player in the league, he scored 19 non-penalty goals with +8.7 overperformance numbers.
However, his numbers dropped to +1.7 last season, when he scored just seven goals.
Bowen is an interesting case.
In the 2023/2024 season, he scored 16 non-penalty goals, overperforming his NPxG by +4.4.
Last season, this figure fell slightly to +4.2, and his non-penalty goals dropped to just 12.
Based on these examples, United fans will be hoping that Cunha and Mbeumo will follow in Fodens footsteps.
Of course, context matters: Foden played in the powerful Manchester City attack during those seasons and became a centrepiece in the last one.
Cunha and Mbeumo were also the centrepieces of their teams attack last season.
Will they have the same privilege in Uniteds inconsistent attack under Amorim?
Well see.
One thing is for sure: the chance of repeating and increasing your overperforming numbers and maintaining double-digit goals is very small; history tells us it is highly unlikely.
If you dont think this research is enough, Conor ONeills research in The Athletic estimated that Mbeumo has only an 0.4% chance of producing 15 goals or more, while Cunha has a 1.7% chance of achieving his tally or more.
From Opta analyst, Matt Furniss also wrote that it is unlikely Cunha will consistently outperform his xG.
Research by Spencer Mossman concluded that there is no reason to expect this pattern to continue.
I also agree that many factors influence finishing and that xG is just a model, which may be inadequate for measuring it.
So Ive tried to analyse Cunha and Mbeumos shooting patterns to see if they have the potential to become exceptional finishers, or at least reach Sons level.
Matheus Cunha & Bryan Mbeumo Shooting Pattern
Last season, Cunha scored five goals from outside the box.
Make that six if you count the goal he scored from a corner against his new club.
His tally is indeed the highest in the Premier League.
But can you guess who is second?
His new teammate, Bruno Fernandes.
Cunha & Mbeumo Analysis
Not only are they both topping the goal ranking, but they are also in the top four for shooting outside the penalty box.
It is interesting to consider whether Amorim thinks having two players who love shooting from outside the box is a good idea.
Because it‘s not rocket science to know that the decision to shoot from outside the box is not s
Try TFA Risk Free For 14 Days
Full Access To TFA Articles
New Content 7 Days
Expert Insights
TFA Podcast Access
14 Day Free Trial
Money Back Guarantee