This week, all week long, we're taking a negative look at each of the teams in the NFC East, in detail. Today we'll roast the Washington Commanders.
To note, we will not be talking about the positives of any of the Eagles' NFC East rivals, because, well, that's no fun. This will be 100 percent vitriolic. And yes, we'll get to the Eagles as well at the end of the series.
The Commanders won four games in 2023. In 2024, they won 12. That was the biggest win total improvement in the NFL last season. It tied for the 9th best improvement since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978. Here's a look at all the teams since 1978 that have had improvements of eight or more wins in a season, and then what those teams did the year after their big improvements:
Only the 1996-1998 Jets had an improvement once again after their initial breakout season. On average, the above teams experienced a decrease of 3.9 wins the following season.
And let's be real about those 12 regular season wins last season, Commanders fans. A lot of those were lucky. I mean, we can all admit that, right?
• Week 2 vs. Giants: The Giants lost their kicker on the opening kickoff, forcing them to go for two after all three of their touchdowns. They failed on all three attempts, because, you know, they're the Giants. The Giants were also forced to go for it on 4th and 4 at the Commanders' 22 yard line with two minutes to go and the score tied 18-18, a very clear field goal situation. They didn't get it, again, because they're the Giants. The Commanders then kicked a game winning field goal, winning 21-18, on seven field goals.
• Week 8 vs. Bears: The Commanders were about to take an embarrassing home loss to a bad Bears team, but Bears CB Tyrique Stevenson was busy taunting fans, and the guy he was supposed to be covering caught a Hail Mary for a TD.
• Week 15 at Saints: In the games Derek Carr did not play in, the Saints were 0-7 with a point differential of -123, or an average margin of defeat of 17.6 (!) points. The team they came closest to beating without Carr was the Commanders, but a two-point try at the end of regulation failed.
• Week 16 vs. Eagles: On the Eagles' second drive of the game, Frankie Luvu speared Jalen Hurts, knocking him out with a concussion. The Commanders still almost lost to Kenny Pickett, but they were kept alive by a dropped pass by the usually reliable DeVonta Smith.
If Smith makes that catch, it's pretty much game over.
• Week 17 vs. Falcons: The Falcons missed a field goal (with a replacement kicker) at the end of regulation, and the Commanders won in OT.
They even got a lot of lucky breaks in the playoffs.
• Wildcard Round at Buccaneers: They got a favorable doink off the upright for the win.
• Divisional Round at Lions: The Lions were missing their two best defensive players in Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill. In fact, here were their Week 1 starters, with guys who could not play against the Commanders crossed out:
Aidan Hutchinson, DL
Alim McNeill, DL
Levi Onwuzurike, DL
Kyle Peko, DL
Jack Campbell LB
Derrick Barnes, LB
Alex Anzalone, LB
Carlton Davis, CB
Terrion Arnold, CB
Kerby Joseph, S
Brian Branch, DB
And then they were also missing key backups like Marcus Davenport, John Cominsky, Malcolm Rodriguez, and Khalil Dorsey. That was just on defense!
Every team has some luck go its way during the course of a season, but that's like a decade's worth of lucky wins in one season.
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Oh, and they were also the fifth-healthiest team in the NFL in 2024.
The Commanders' win total over-under this season is 9.5. Pound the under.
2) What are these stupid trades that this team made? 🤝
The Commanders have made three trades since the 2024 trade deadline, for Marshon Lattimore, Deebo Samuel, and Laremy Tunsil. All three trades were widely hailed as wins for the Commanders when they were made, probably because they're just recognizable names. If you mash all the trades together, it looks like this:
Commanders got... Commanders gave up...
CB Marshon Lattimore 2nd round pick (2026)
WR Deebo Samuel 3rd round pick (2025)
LT Laremy Tunsil 3rd round pick (2025)
4th round pick (2025) 4th round pick (2025)
5th round pick (2025) 4th round pick (2026)
5th round pick (2025)
6th round pick (2025)
7th round pick (2025)
So, they're essentially down six draft picks. They had the second lowest draft capital in the NFL this year, and they only have five picks in 2026 (with no compensatory picks incoming).
But also, they're paying two of those guys a lot more money than they're worth.
• Marshon Lattimore: Lattimore missed the first four games with a hamstring injury after the Commanders traded for him. He then played in two games, missed two more, and then returned to the field for the playoffs.
Maybe Lattimore was dealing with the effects of his hamstring injury and he'll be better in 2025, but holy hell he looked cooked in the playoffs. He couldn't cover without hanging onto receivers for dear life, and he had a bunch of missed tackles.
The Commanders will pay Lattimore $18 million in 2025.
• Deebo Samuel: Samuel was a legitimate star player in 2021. He had 77 catches for 1,405 yards (a lofty 18.2 YPC), and six TDs as a receiver, and added 365 yards and eight TDs on 59 carries (6.2 YPC) on the ground as a runner. He was named First-Team All-Pro, and he asked to be traded the following offseason, but instead signed a contract extension to stay in San Francisco.
In 2022 and 2023, Samuel was still an effective runner out of the backfield, averaging 5.8 yards per carry over those two seasons, but his numbers as a receiver were way down.
Year (GP) Rec Yards YPC TD
2019 (15) 57 802 14.1 3
2020 (7) 33 391 11.8 1
2021 (16) 77 1,405 18.2 6
2022 (13) 56 632 11.3 2
2023 (15) 60 892 14.9 7
2024 (15) 51 670 13.1 3
TOTAL 334 4,792 14.3 22
In 2024, Samuel had perhaps the worst season of his career, with just 670 receiving yards (45 yards per game), and a yards per carry average of 3.2. He also yelled at kicker Jake Moody and took a swing at long snapper Taybor Pepper after Moody missed three field goals in a game. (Video via @OllieConnolly).
Lol, what an a**hole.
But the low point for the season for Samuel was the 49ers' Week 15 matchup against the Rams. Leading up to that game, Samuel complained to the media about getting more targets, and when Brock Purdy obliged...
Mmmmmmmm drrrrrrrrrrrrop!
That was a huge play in a game the Niners lost, all but eliminating them from playoff contention.
It wasn't the first time Samuel came up small in the 49ers' most important games. In the last three games that sealed the Niners' fate for the season — the NFC Championship Game vs. the Eagles in 2022, the Super Bowl vs. the Chiefs in 2023, and the aforementioned Week 15 game vs. the Rams in 2024 — Samuel had a combined 9 catches on 24 targets for 72 yards (3.0 yards per target), and 11 carries for two yards (0.18 YPC), and a fumble.
Samuel has not been a difference-maker over the last three seasons, and the Commanders are going to pay him $17.5 million in 2025. For some reason, the Commanders' trade of a fifth-round pick for Samuel was widely lauded as a steal, but the reality is that the Niners were thrilled to be able to offload that bad contract, and getting anything at all for him in return was a win for them.
I'd be curious to see what kind of 40 time this guy would run these days. (Video via @Scott7news)
I'd set the over-under at like 4.71.
• Laremy Tunsil: Tunsil will count for $21,350,000 on the Commanders' cap each of the next two seasons, which isn't bad, but the Commanders gave up a 2, a 3, and a 7 (with 4th round picks going each way) to get him.
Is Tunsil better than guys like Brandon Coleman and Cornelius Lucas, who both started games at LT for Washington last season? Sure. But he will also turn 31 before Week 1, and he led the NFL in penalties last season. Also, isn't it at least a little bit of a red flag that the Texans were willing to deal Tunsil when they have a third-year franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud who had a down year in 2024 partly because he did not get good protection from his offensive line?
3) What are these stupid signings this team made?
The Commanders entered free agency loaded with cap space and limitless possibilities. Their big free agency signing was Javon Kinlaw, who somehow scored a three-year deal worth $45 million. Kinlaw spent his first four years with the 49ers, and last year with the Jets. He has 9.5 career sacks in five seasons.
Kinlaw has a hulking frame, but has been an atrocious run defender throughout his five-year career. For example, the Eagles tossed him around like a ragdoll in the NFC Championship Game, as shown here:
And here:
And there's more where that 👆 came from in that game.
Kinlaw got overpaid on a one-year "prove it" deal worth $8 million with the Jets last offseason, he proved nothing, and the Commanders were like, "Hey, why don't you come play here for $45 million?"
That was the oddest signing of free agency, league-wide.
Otherwise, by my count the Commanders signed, traded for, or re-signed 12 (!) players who are 30+ years of age, plus another seven players who will turn 30 by the time the Super Bowl is played in February of 2026. Speaking of which...
4) Good Lord, this team is old AF 👴
I think that the perception of the Commanders, from a national perspective, is that they are a young, up-and-coming team, because they had a stellar rookie quarterback last season. They are not. In fact, they have 30 (!) players who are 29 years of age already, or older. Here's how that compares with the rest of the NFL:
• 30: Commanders
• 19: Falcons, Lions, Texans
• 18: Browns, Steelers
• 16: 49ers, Titans
• 15: Giants
• 14: Panthers, Raiders, Patriots, Saints
• 13: Ravens, Bengals, Colts, Vikings, Buccaneers
• 12: Cowboys, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers, Rams, Dolphins
• 11: Bills
• 10: Bears, Broncos
• 9: Cardinals, Seahawks
• 8: Eagles
• 7: Jets
• 4: Packers
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The Commanders had a chance to continue to surround their young star quarterback with long-term pieces with whom he could grow. Instead, they'll field what will almost certainly be the oldest team in the NFL, and very likely by a wide margin.
That dumbass approach this offseason kind of reminds me of some other team in Philly that is owned by Josh Harris.
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5) Their pass defense will probably suck
To begin, who is getting after the quarterback in this defense? None of their projected starting front four of Dorance Armstrong, Deatrich Wise, Daron Payne, or Javon Kinlaw had more than five sacks in 2024.
And then at corner, Mike Sainristil looks like a good player in the slot, but the the two outside spots will be manned by a combination of a maybe-cooked Marshon Lattimore, a soon-to-be 32-year-old Jonathan Jones, and a rookie in Trey Amos.
6) Their run defense will almost certainly suck... again
During the regular season, the Commanders had the third-worst run defense in the NFL, in terms of rushing yards allowed per game:
Team Opposing rush yards Record
Panthers 179.8 5-12
Saints 141.4 5-12
Commanders 137.5 12-5
Cowboys 137.1 7-10
Bears 136.3 5-12
Giants 136.2 3-14
Titans 133.9 3-14
Jaguars 132.6 4-13
Colts 131.8 8-9
Patriots 131.4 4-13
Among the above group of teams, the Commanders were the outlier, in that they had a 12-5 record, while the rest of the above teams had a combined record of 44-109 (0.288).
In the playoffs, the Commanders gave up 177.0 rushing yards per game, and 11 rushing TDs. So, you know, if they can't fix that, it's yet another reason to expect significant win total regression this season.
So what did they do to fix that this offseason? They signed Kinlaw, who as noted above has been a terrible run defender his entire NFL career.
While we're on this topic, we should also maybe point out that LB Frankie Luvu is one of the most overrated players in the NFL. He was named second-team All-Pro in 2024, mainly because he had eight sacks. Certainly, he's one of the best blitzing linebackers in the NFL and "he plays with energy," I guess, but man is there some crappy tape of him against the run in the NFC Championship Game. The following clips are in chronological order:
Of course, Luvu was the player who kept trying to jump over the pile while the Eagles were running goal line Tush Pushes late in the game, and I think some Commanders fans saw his hijinx as sort of a silver lining from that day, in that maybe he would help the play get banned this offseason. But (a) it didn't, and (b) the reality is that by the time that game was over, he was avoiding blocks because he didn't want any smoke.
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The "fake tough guy" approach kind of extends to the coaching staff.
During the week leading up to the NFC Championship Game, Commanders defensive coordinator Joe Whitt gave a tough guy interview about how his players were going to hit Jalen Hurts all day.
And then Whitt's defense gave up seven rushing TDs.
7) Their rushing offense is carried by their quarterback
On the other side of the ball, the Commanders finished third in rushing, with 154.1 rushing yards per game. That's great and all, but my concern if I'm a Commanders fan is that Jayden Daniels led the team in rushing:
Commanders rushing Rush Yards YPC TD
Jayden Daniels 148 891 6.0 6
Brian Robinson 187 799 4.3 8
Austin Ekeler 77 367 4.8 4
Jeremy McNichols 55 261 4.7 4
Chris Rodriguez 35 173 4.9 2
Marcus Mariota 18 92 5.1 1
Dyami Brown 3 26 8.7 0
Olamide Zacceaus 1 8 8.0 0
Terry McLaurin 2 2 1.0 0
The biggest fear for any Commanders season going forward is Daniels going down at some point. I mean, I suppose that's true of most teams and their quarterbacks, but it's really true for Washington. Other quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, etc. all run the ball their fair share, but none of them have to carry their teams' rushing attacks like Daniels will.
Daniels took a lot of shots his rookie season. Like this:
Or this:
Daniels and the Commanders are going to have to figure out how to allow Daniels to make plays with his feet while also staying out of harm's way. That's a really difficult needle to thread.
8) The idea that "Jayden Daniels will only continue to get better" is not a given 📉
Jayden Daniels was a star player as a rookie. It would be stupid to suggest otherwise. A common sentiment surrounding the Commanders is that he "is only going to get better."
Mehhhh. The following is a list of quarterbacks who recently won Rookie of the Year honors, showing their QBR in their rookie seasons, and their QBR in their follow-up seasons. Disclaimer: Yes, QBR is a rudimentary measure of a quarterback, but we'll use it here for snapshot purposes. (Sample size, last 20 seasons).
Player RoY QBR Next year QBR
Vince Young 56.1 46.9 📉
Matt Ryan 68.8 67.7 📉
Sam Bradford 46.9 31.4 📉
Cam Newton 56.6 58.3 📈
Robert Griffin III 69.4 50.4 📉
Dak Prescott 77.6 70.0 📉
Kyler Murray 57.7 61.9 📈
Justin Herbert 62.6 70.9 📈
C.J. Stroud 57.5 49.8 📉
Jayden Daniels 70.6 ???
Three of those quarterbacks had upticks in QBR, six had downticks.
Daniels could very well improve. However, teams around the league are going to have a year's worth of tape to scrutinize his strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies.
9) The Commanders converted on an unsustainable percentage of 4th down conversions in 2024
The Commanders converted 20 of 23 fourth down conversions during the regular season in 2024, for a conversion rate of 87 percent. That was the best rate of any team in the SB era (minimum 15 attempts, h/t r/nfl).
A big part of that was because Daniels is awesome. But also, they're not matching that in 2025.
10) Dan Quinn turtled up in the Commanders' biggest moment 🐢
Speaking of 4th down conversions, on the opening drive of the NFC Championship Game, the Commanders came out in no-huddle and put a little bit of a scare into Eagles fans. They converted a 3rd and 6 from their own 34, another 3rd and 6 from their own 45, a 4th and 5 from the Eagles' 43, and a 4th and 2 from the Eagles' 28.
On a 4th and 3 from the Eagles' 16, Quinn — of "28-3" infamy — decided on the 18th play of the drive, "That's enough risk for me even though we keep converting. Let's kick the field goal."
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Lol. You know who was happy with that decision? Literally every Eagles fan, and the Eagles' sideline itself.
Luvu is shown on the sideline, correctly wishing they'd have gone for it on 4th down, pointing out that the Commanders were the best 4th down team in the league. While talking to his players after that drive, Eagles defensive line coach Clint Hurtt said, "17-play drive and 3 points ain't gonna f****** beat us."
The Commanders were lucky to be in the NFC Championship Game in the first place, and Quinn tried to play it like they weren't the obviously inferior team. And then the Eagles proceeded put a 55-burger on them.