NBA talent evaluators and former front office executives have long said there are often only 20-25 players in any given draft they think are actually worth drafting. One fun thing about the draft: the array of opinions these people have about who exactly falls into that 20-25 player grouping.
Another fun thing: how much variation there is in how those players are ordered.
With my stat-based draft evaluation process, I have a more expansive view. Generally, my scoring system produces a list of 20-25 players with a first-round grade. But I’ve seen too many good players come from outside that group — often from outside anyone’s group of 20-25 draft-worthy prospects to think that’s where the list should end.
I view the evals on a probability basis — Which of these young players are more or less likely to achieve success at the NBA level? A kid showing up outside of the first round grade list in Ye Olde Draft Analyzer’s doesn’t mean that player can’t succeed in the NBA. It means success is somewhat less probable. If that prospect puts in the work, gets the right coaching and teammates, and gets the in-game opportunity to performer, he can still turn out to be good.
For example, Alex Caruso was undrafted when he finished his NCAA career at Texas A&M. He was so unheralded as a prospect, I didn’t even run him through the eval process. When I analyzed him retroactively (using information known only at the time), he finished with a late second to undrafted grade. That was the view nearly everyone had of him at the time — he went undrafted and spent most of three seasons apprenticing in the G League before becoming a full-time NBA player.
And yet, he’s eight years into an NBA career that includes two championships (so far), two times on the All-Defense team (including first-team honors in 2022-23), and guaranteed contracts that will pay him a minimum of $124.5 million in career earnings through 2029.
Looking back, he’s an intriguing prospect — good shooter on low volume, decent rebounding, above average playmaking, lots of steals. Given his age and overall production, he didn’t warrant a first round bet, but there’s enough production in his numbers to think...maybe...if he puts in the work and hits his maximum potential. I bring up Caruso because there’s a guy in this year’s draft who reminds me of him. We’ll get there.
The basic message from YODA is that the Wizards have a solid likelihood of getting a prospect with the sixth pick who’s just as good as a prospect they might have selected with the third, fourth or fifth picks. Or seventh or eighth for that matter.
It might even be the same guy at six who they would have taken at three. I mean, I could make an argument for Kon Knueppel at three, and he might be available when the Wizards are on the clock at six. And they might pass on him. And they might be right to do so.
I apologize for the hot takes.
For newcomers and those who haven’t committed my approach to memory, my draft analysis is based on stats. The system started as an academic exercise on a message board — I was curious to see if maybe I could use publicly available information and a standard issue spreadsheet and do a better job identifying which prospects would become good NBA players.
I don’t know that I’ve satisfied that curiosity, though I keep tinkering with the system to try and make the results better. Turns out, predicting the futures of 18-21 year olds is hard to do whatever your approach.
As mentioned, the process has evolved a bit since those first days posting work-in-progress results on the RealGM Wizards board. The system, which I took to calling “Ye Olde Draft Analyzer” got shortened to YODA by someone, and the name stuck. It begins with an approximation of my PPA metric and includes scoring, rebounding, playmaking, turnovers, steals, blocks, and fouls.
Over the years, I’ve progressively added refinements to how I account for age, level of competition, and physical tools — length, agility, and verticality.
This year, for the first time, I’m including an adjustment based on consensus draft position. This is something other stat-based draft analysts incorporate, and it’s what I would do if I was working with a team and had access to the evaluations of staff experts. My approach gives a modest bump to players who land in the top 10 of a consensus of mock drafts. The goal is to nudge upwards players like Jaylen Brown or Andre Drummond who weren’t productive in college for one reason or another but are likely to be good pros.
The “consensus” category largely replaces the “intangibles” factor of previous years. I say “largely” because there are a few exceptions, such as Kobe Johnson, who was a three-time all-conference defender — in two different major conferences.
In general, the numbers provide a lot of information about prospects, even if you don’t want to use a linear production metric like PPA. Look for high two-point percentage (over 50% for guards, over 55% for wings and forwards, and over 60% for bigs. For centers, assists per 40 are often a good indicator of a good defender (higher is better). If you’re looking for indicators of applied athleticism, look for offensive rebounds, steals and blocks, and for smaller players, two-point percentage.
Turnovers are generally a negative, but aren’t as big a concern among prospects as they are in actual NBA play. Prospects with high turnovers in pre-NBA leagues who do the work often learn to reduce the miscues. Not always (not even usually), though, so it’s still worth raising a caution flag.
NOTE: I use four positions — guards (think Bub Carrington or Jordan Poole), wings (Bilal Coulibaly, Kyshawn George, Corey Kispert), forwards (Kyle Kuzma, Justin Champagnie), centers (Richaun Holmes, Jonas Valanciunas, Tristan Vukcevic).
With that, here are the rankings...
The 2025 NBA Draft According to YODA
Cooper Flagg, F, Duke — Best player in college basketball at age 18. Impressive production after an inefficient start to the season. He does a lot of just about everything, which is a great sign. It’s fair to be somewhat concerned about the low two-point percentage (51.7%), but he’s a more than deserving first pick and an outstanding prospect.
Dylan Harper, G, Rutgers — A big guard with good production across the board and above-average (though not elite) athleticism. A few concerns: meh three-point shooting, decent but unexceptional free throw shooting, high turnovers.
Kon Knueppel, W, Duke — Great shooter but a bit more than a shooting specialist. The ball goes in when he lets it fly (twos, threes, and free throws) — and he also does some rebounding, playmaking and defending. In other words, there’s more dimension to his game than some other “shooters” who have entered the league recently.
Collin Murray-Boyles, F, South Carolina — Shot just 26.5% on threes, but was still efficient on offense. Rebounds, defends, even has some playmaking. Plus athleticism to go with plus length. His ranking isn’t as much a reach as it felt earlier in the draft eval process — he’s currently ninth in the Rookie Scale consensus mock draft.
VJ Edgecome, G, Baylor — The numbers that pop for me — superb rebounding for a guard, good assists, outstanding steals. The offensive efficiency was unimpressive, but the shooting is just good enough to think he might improve with NBA coaching and development.
Asa Newell, F, Georgia — My first big disagreement with consensus, which has Newell 16th. What’s to like: 62.7% on twos, the most offensive boards per minute for a non-center in the draft, and good steals and blocks numbers without excessive fouling. At minimum, he’ll have a role as a defensive-minded forward and small-ball center. If he learns to shoot? Well, his top comp, according to YODA, Kawhi Leonard.
Khaman Maluach, C, Duke — YODA has him seventh. Consensus mocks have him eighth. Inject me with truth serum, and I don’t want to pick him until later in the draft. The production is good — 75.4% on twos, solid free throw shooting, good rebounding. There’s no playmaking (no surprise) or steals. His 2.5 blocks per 40 are surprisingly light for a guy his size and may speak to poor agility.
Jase Richardson, G, Michigan State — On three draft podcasts, Matt Modderno issued the requisite cautions on Richardson. He’s small and not a hyper athlete. But...54.5% on twos, 41.2% on threes, and 83.6% on free throws, plus some rebounding (5.2 per 40 minutes from a small guard), some playmaking (3.0 assists per 40), and some steals. Consensus has him 21st, and I’d rather pick someone else high and try to get him later.
Tre Johnson, G, Texas — Good size and three-point shooting but just 44.9% on twos and not much non-scoring production.
Noa Essengue, F, Ulm — Good size and athletic tools (though not enough to boost his YODA score) with good production in a solid international league. Good two-point conversion (64.2%), terrible three-point shooting (25.5%), decent steals and blocks.
Ace Bailey, W, Rutgers — The idea of Bailey as a player was better than the reality last season, but his production and physical tools are good enough to think he could become a good NBA player if given time to work and improve. The Wizards have time. Scouts still like him — consensus has him in the top five.
Jeremiah Fears, G, Oklahoma — Quick, bouncy, small, competitive, young. Fears reclassified to enter the NCAA a year early and will still be just 18 years old on draft day. What pops in the numbers: playmaking, steals, 8.4 free throw attempts per 40 (very high), 85.1% free throw percentage. Also: 28.4% on threes. Eyeball scouts rave about his ball-handling, and I wouldn’t be upset if Washington takes him sixth.
Carter Bryant, F, Arizona — Solid overall production, decent size, great hops. The only player in this year’s draft to average 2+ steals and 2+ blocks per 40 minutes. Others to do that in my non-comprehensive database: Jalen Johnson, Nerlens Noel (f-ing knee injuries), Robert Covington, Kenneth Faried, Danny Green.
Johni Broome, C, Auburn — I know, he’s old for a prospect and a bit undersized for an NBA center. He’s also crazy quick for his size, rebounds well, and does a lot of the big man stuff NBA teams need. Consensus has him 40th. I’d use that information to pick him later in the draft. I suspect a contending team who needs a backup big will draft him in the late first or early second and be happy with him.
Rasheer Fleming, F, Saint Joseph’s — Outstanding production against weaker competition with excellent size and agility. He’s a forward with a “length” score above average for a center. He made 64.6% on twos, 39.0% from deep, plus he crashed the boards, generated steals and blocks. Only one player in this draft had a longer wingspan relative to his height.
Adou Theiro, F, Arkansas — Strong all-around production with good size. Lousy three-point shooting dragged down his overall efficiency.
Cedric Coward, W, Washington State — A shoulder injury sidelined him most of the season, but his production in a small sample was a) very good, and b) consistent with the rest of his NCAA career. Big wing who can definitely shoot. The Wizards could do a lot worse than Coward if he’s available at 18. Mocks have him 15th.
Ryan Kalkbrenner, C, Creighton — Another BIG center I wouldn’t want to pick as high as YODA grades him. The collegiate production is outstanding. The agility score at the combine is subpar but not far enough below average to earn a ding. His vertical measurement was actually pretty good. Consensus has him 31, which feels about right.
Drake Powell, W, North Carolina — I’m intrigued by his outstanding size and athleticism. His agility scores were almost two standard deviations above average for wings. His combined vertical measures were 15 inches above average for his position. Tools like that have me wondering why his production was so meh. I’m not the only one wondering — consensus has him 32nd.
Walter Clayton Jr., G, Florida — Small, freaky quick, mature, and competitive. Also productive. Interesting prospect who probably slots in as a backup guard for a good team.
Kasparas Jakucionis, G, Illinois — Good size, playmaking, and rebounding for a guard. Also poor three-point shooting. Consensus has him 12th. That ends the list of players with a first round grade in YODA this year.
Here’s the list of other intriguing players, according to the numbers with less comment:
Thomas Sorber, C, Georgetown
Nique Clifford, G, Colorado State
Clifford Omoruyi, C, Alabama
Caleb Grill, G, Missouri — Won’t get drafted. He’s already 25 but holy crap he can shoot — 69.1% on twos, 39.6% on threes, 86.4% on free throws. I just want to see him get a shot somewhere.
Bogoljub Markovic, F, Mega Basket — Good production but subpar athleticism scores at the combine.
Joan Beringer, C, Cedevita Olimpija — 18th in consensus mocks.
Derik Queen, C, Maryland — Ranks 10th in consensus mocks and 29th in YODA. Scouts like the apparent skills. YODA notes that he measured small, slow and ground-bound at the combine, that he didn’t shoot well in college, he produced few assists, and he didn’t block many shots or get many steals. He did turn it over, though.
Chaz Lanier, W, Tennessee — Good athlete and three-point shooter.
Javon Small, G, West Virginia
Will Riley, F, Illinois
Alijah Martin, G, Florida
John Tonje, W, Wisconsin — Another old guy (24) who can shoot.
Rocco Zikarsky, C, Brisbane
Alex Toohey, W, Sydney — Solid non-scoring production for his position in a strong professional league.
Will Richard, F, Florida
Ben Saraf, G, Ulm — Consensus mocks have him 10 spots higher.
Kobe Johnson, G, UCLA — This is the guy who makes me think of Caruso. Low usage but his shot goes in. Strong non-scoring production. Three-time conference All-Defense honors in the Pac-12 and Big 10. The second round was made for guys like this. Probably goes undrafted.
Curtis Jones, W, Iowa State
Sion James, G, Duke
Malique Lewis, F, South East Melbourne
Liam McNeeley, W, Connecticut — Consensus has him 20th, not 43rd.
Izan Almansa, C, Perth
Max Shulga, G, VCU
Yanic Konan Niederhauser, C, Penn State — Number one in the name draft. Also number one in the profile most like JaVale McGee.
Tamar Bates, W, Iowa State
Chucky Hepburn, G, Louisville
Noah Penda, F, Le Mans — Consensus has him 30th.
Egor Demin, G, BYU — YODA has him 50th. Consensus: 14th. What’s weird is I still kinda like him as a prospect and would be willing to pick him higher. Solid two-point percentage (55.3%), good rebounding, assists and steals per 40. Definite concerns about three-point shooting, turnovers, and the lack of trips to the free throw line.
Amari Williams, C, Kentucky
RJ Luis Jr., W, St. John’s
Grant Nelson, F, Alabama
Igor Milicic, F, Tennessee
Danny Wolf, F, Michigan — Consensus has him 23rd
Sean Pedulla, G, Ole Miss
Vladislav Goldin, C, Michigan
Tyrese Proctor, G, Duke — Consensus says: 37th
Lachlan Olbrich, C, Illawarra
Brice Williams, W, Nebraska
That’s 60 players ranked for a 59 pick draft. Yes, that means Nolan Traore, the Saint-Quentin guard who’s 24th in consensus mocks, rates outside the top 60 in YODA. Same for Maxime Raynaud, who’s 28th in mocks, Hansen Yang (34th), and Hugo Gonzalez (27th).
Let me know in the comments if you have questions about someone specific. And tune in to the live stream of the first round with Matt Modderno.