CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Whether **[Drake Powell](https://247sports.com/Player/Drake-Powell-46116213)** breaks North Carolina's dry spell in the first round of the NBA Draft, his professional basketball future likely depends on landing with a team that's willing to invest in development, while his offensive game catches up to his capacity as a superior defender.
The stretchy wing forward, coming off his freshman season with the Tar Heels, is expected by most analysts to be selected during the latter stages of the first round on Wednesday night, or early in the second round on Thursday night.
Either way, wherever he's drafted, it figures to become a process for Powell and his new team, an NBA scout told _Inside Carolina_. The scout, who works for a Western Conference team, used "a project as an offensive player" on Tuesday as he assessed Powell's current stock and growth prospects.
"The vision in terms of potential is a '3-and-D' player," the scout told IC. "But that's later on down the road, though. What you hope for Drake Powell is that he ends up with the right organization, the right team structure. And he can be able to gain some experience to where he's capable of adding value to your team in a couple of years."
Powell, who's out of nearby Northwood High School in Pittsboro, N.C., turns 20 years old in September. UNC has produced 54 first-round picks through the years, which ranks third in NBA Draft history behind only Kentucky (60) and Duke (56). But across the last three drafts, Duke (seven) and Kentucky (five) have combined for 12 first-round choices, while Carolina has been shut out.
Duke is positioned to dominate the upper reaches of this 2025 draft, with Cooper Flagg the certain No. 1 overall pick to the Dallas Mavericks, and teammates Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach rated to be taken in the top 10.
Since the 2019 NBA Draft, when UNC's Coby White, Cameron Johnson and Nassir Little were among the first 25 selections off the board, the Tar Heels have had two first-round picks over the last five drafts — Cole Anthony in 2020 and Day'Ron Sharpe in 2021. Powell could snap the drought on Wednesday night.
"I thought he fared better against Cooper Flagg than anyone else," the scout said of Powell's defensive prowess. "On-ball defense is the strong suit of his game, without question.
"He's a project as an offensive player right now. You'd really like to see him turn his defense into offense more. But again, this is a young guy. He was getting out of high school at this time a year ago. Not everyone is on the Cooper Flagg trajectory as a prospect."
Last month, Powell wowed at the NBA Draft Combine. He tested as arguably the best athlete during the event in Chicago, with the best no-step vertical leap (37½ inches) and max (or running) vertical leap (43 inches). He also finished fourth in the three-quarter-court sprint (3.07 seconds), seventh in the shuttle run (2.79 seconds), and seventh in the pro lane drill (10.71 seconds).
He earned the UNC team's Defensive Player of the Year award last season. He was listed at 6-foot-6 and 195 pounds with the Tar Heels. At the draft combine, he measured 6-5¼ barefoot and 200.4 pounds, with a huge 7-foot wingspan and 8-foot-7 standing reach. That's the type of exceptional length that has had draft analysts such as Jonathan Givony of ESPN comparing Powell favorably to New Orleans Pelicans defensive stopper Herb Jones.
Powell's decision to skip the 5-on-5 scrimmage portions of the combine suggested confidence from his camp about his draft status. But as NBA analyst Sam Vecenie of The Athletic has noted, Powell's usage rate checked in as the lowest among Carolina's rotation players last season at just 13.8. And according to Vecenie, no wing player ever with a usage rate that low from their prior season of college basketball has become an NBA Draft choice.
Usage rate determines the percentage of a team's plays that a player uses on the court, focusing on plays that a player initiates or finishes, not the overall number of times they touch the ball or pass it. Effectively, usage rate measures how involved a player is during their team's possessions on offense.
Since 2008, Virginia's Ryan Dunn (2024 first-rounder), Kansas's Johnny Furphy (2024 second-rounder), Connecticut's Andre Jackson Jr. (2023 second-rounder), Kentucky's Chris Livingstone (2023 second-rounder), Duke's AJ Griffin (2022 first-rounder), Arizona's Dalen Terry (2022 first-rounder), Michigan's Caleb Houston (2022 second-rounder), Alabama's Joshua Primo (2021 first-rounder), Ohio State's Jon Diebler (2011 second-rounder) and Kentucky's DeAndre Liggins (2011 second-rounder) are the only college prospects to be drafted with a usage rate below 17, per Vecenie.
Powell made 24 starts across 37 games in college last season, averaging 7.4 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game as a freshman. He shot 48.3 percent from the field, 37.9 percent from 3-point range and 64.8 percent on free throws. He ranked third among the Tar Heels in 3-point percentage, behind teammates Jae'Lyn Withers and Ian Jackson.
He led Carolina in plus/minus rating 10 times, four more than any other UNC player. Powell scored in double digits in 10 games on an economical number of attempts from the field. He took seven or more shots in 11 games, and connected on 51.5-percent shooting from the field (34-for-66) across the last 10 games of the season.
He delivered a season-best 18 points against Michigan State at the Maui Invitational in November, while his ACC scoring highs were 17 points against SMU in a January victory and 16 points against Miami in a March rout. Powell sank at least one 3-pointer during 23 games, and suppled 4-for-6 efforts beyond the 3-point arc against Michigan State and SMU.