Malik Nabers is coming off one of the best fantasy football rookie seasons of all time from a wide receiver. His 109 receptions set a new single-season rookie record among wideouts, and his 1,204 yards and 273.6 fantasy points are both the eighth-most all-time for a first-year receiver.
What makes his statistical accomplishments even more impressive is that he posted these totals with a quartet of quarterbacks that included Daniel Jones (10 starts), Drew Lock (five starts), Tommy DeVito (two starts) and Tim Boyle. Jones was actually cut during the season, but it didn’t matter … Nabers averaged 17.4 points with Jones under center, 19.5 points with Lock at the helm, and 18.3 points in games with DeVito and Boyle leading the offense.
Based on his success as a rookie, Nabers is projected to be a first-round pick in 2025 fantasy drafts with an average draft position of 10.07 on the NFFC website. Ja’Marr Chase (1.14), Justin Jefferson (4.98), CeeDee Lamb (7.07) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (9.24) are the lone receivers being selected ahead of him, which makes sense based on their respective resumes.
However, what if I told you Nabers will finish as the overall WR1 in fantasy football in 2025? You can easily make that argument for a number of reasons, and I’m going to do that for you right now. We’ll start off with what the Giants did to improve the quarterback spot.
The Giants selected Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft.
The Giants selected Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. / John Jones-Imagn Images
The 2024 quartet of Jones, Lock, DeVito and Boyle was anything but exciting … and that’s an understatement. Combined, these four field generals had a Passing Expected Points Added of -110.6! Jones was the lone player to average more than 153 passing yards per game, and he averaged just 207. Only DeVito had a completion percentage higher than 63.3 and he played just two games. They also combined to throw for just 15 touchdown passes.
Based on those totals, it’s a small miracle that Nabers was as good as he was as a rookie.
In 2025, however, he’ll be catching passes from an upgraded group of quarterbacks. The G-Men signed projected starter Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston and selected Jaxson Dart in the first round of the NFL Draft. Wilson might not be what he used to be, but he’s still a more effective quarterback than the Giants’ 2024 quarterbacks.
The same goes for Winston, who almost single-handedly turned Jerry Jeudy into a fantasy star in Cleveland last season.
As for Dart, he brings an attractive resume coming out of Ole Miss. He started a combined 39 games for the Rebels, culminating in a 2024 season that saw him finish fourth in passing yards in FBS with a 68.4 completion percentage. Dart was also the second-best quarterback based on PFF grading in 2024, behind only Miami’s Cam Ward.
All of this is obviously good news for Nabers.
There’s an interesting trend among wide receivers who finished first in fantasy points over the last five years. In that time, no wideout has gone back-to-back as the overall WR1. The last player to do it was Antonio Brown, who finished first in fantasy points in four straight years from 2014-2017. If we go back 14 more years to 2000, only three wideouts (Marvin Harrison, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson) went back-to-back as fantasy’s top receiver.
If this trend continues, Chase, coming off a “magical season,” will be unseated as the top receiver in fantasy football. And, if you look at the historical data, he’s also likely to see at least some regression. One of only three receivers to score 400 fantasy points in a single season in the Super Bowl era, Chase has a tough hill to climb to repeat that sort of success.
In 2023, Lamb scored 403.2 points as the league’s top fantasy wideout. That total dipped to 263.4 points last season. After Cooper Kupp scored 439.5 points in 2021, he scored just 201.4 points in 2022. Even the great Jerry Rice, who scored 414 points in 1995, experienced a drop to 295.1 points in 1996.
Chase also scored 17 touchdowns last year. Historically (see the table below), receivers who have hit that mark in a single season have experienced a decline in fantasy points the following season. So, predicting a fall from the top spot among wideouts in 2025 isn’t absurd.
Player Year TDs Points Year TDs Points Points Diff.
Davante Adams 2020 18 358.4 2021 11 344.3 -14.1
Randy Moss 2007 22 385.3 2008 11 231.8 -153.5
Randy Moss 2003 17 376 2004 13 201.2 -174.8
Randy Moss 1998 21 306.7 1999 11 296.7 -10
Carl Pickens 1995 17 325 1996 12 293.7 -31.3
Cris Carter 1995 17 361.1 1996 10 270.3 -90.8
Sterling Sharpe 1994 18 315.4 1995 0 0 -315.4
Jerry Rice 1989 17 335.6 1990 13 328.2 -7.40000000000003
Jerry Rice 1987 22 313.9 1988 9 263.9 -50
Mark Clayton 1984 18 319.4 1985 4 194.6 -124.8
Maybe Nabers takes over that top spot? Well, take a look at my final trend and well, you might agree.
LSU has become famous for its wide receivers coming out of college and making a major fantasy impact in the pros. Chase, an LSU alum, finished first in points last season. Heck, Brian Thomas Jr. was fourth among wideouts as a rookie, and Nabers finished sixth.
That’s three former Tigers in the top six just last season!
In 2022, Justin Jefferson finished first in fantasy points at wideout. He also, of course, went to LSU. Both he and Chase ranked in the top five among fantasy wideouts in the previous season, and Jefferson was sixth in points as a rookie in 2020. So, two of the last three WR1 finishers went to LSU, and former Tigers have been in the top 10 seven times since 2020.
While the Giants improved at quarterback, the team didn’t do much else to change the passing game personnel in the offseason. Nabers is still the alpha, and Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson remain behind him on the depth chart. Jaylin Hyatt is also still on the roster. Theo Johnson will be the team’s top tight end, with Daniel Bellinger behind him.
With no new threats to his target share, better signal-callers throwing him the ball and the trends I’ve listed, a Nabers leap to the top of the wide receiver points list isn’t farfetched. In fact, at the age of just 21 (he’ll be 22 in July), you can make the argument that Nabers will not only be the top wideout in fantasy football redrafts, but he should also be the top wide receiver in dynasty startups, too, ahead of his LSU brethren Chase and Jefferson.