The Endowment Effect is an important thing to understand when you’re a die-hard Celtics fan.
In psychology, the Endowment Effect has demonstrated that people will usually value an item that they already have higher than an item they do not, totally independent of objective value. Give some people a pen and others a mug and ask if they want to trade; the pen group generally kept their pens, while the mug group kept their mugs. Which was more valuable? Apparently, it didn’t matter.
In sports fandom, the same can be true. We are situated so close to our beloved teams that it can become impossible to objectively analyze the value of players relative to their cost. In the case of Jaylen Brown — longest tenured Celtic, Finals MVP, hero of Boston and community stalwart — it’s almost impossible to break this desire to hang onto him.
There has been a lot of smoke rising over Brown’s name in the last 36 hours, and with the Celtics rapidly moving on from Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, it’s only natural to wonder if something even bigger might be coming. But I’m not here to ask if Jaylen Brown will be traded; I’m here to ask if he should be.
Full disclosure: I love Brown. He was drafted when I was in 7th grade, and literally the first thing I ever wrote on the internet was an analysis of the Celtics picking him (I thought we should have selected Kris Dunn... so I have to live with that for the rest of my life). He’s been a player that’s given everything to me, a person that has fascinated me, and when asked last year in a parlor game, “who or what would you write a book about if you could,” I answered immediately, “Jaylen Brown.”
But the Celtics do not live in my world. They cannot view Brown as someone who deserves to be the last man ever to wear number 7, and keep him purely for posterity. Maybe they would have been able to do that in the 1990s, but Adam Silver and the Players Association have shown with their new collective bargaining agreement and second apron that keeping whole superstructures together is not their priority. Brown’s contract — all $300 million of it — is going to make keeping both him and Jayson Tatum extremely difficult going forward.
Reasons against trading Brown are obvious, but marks for trading him boil down to two main categories: the aforementioned financial reality and a sheer statement of value versus return. The CBA doesn’t mean we will have to trade Brown eventually, but it will force Brad Stevens & Co. to continue having meetings about it. And at those meetings, they will always have to ask the same questions: is there something spectacular we can get for Brown now, and will he ever be more valuable than he is today?
New York Knicks v Boston Celtics Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images
On that final charge, I think the answer is definitely no. Brown’s production was down this year. He regressed in all major categories and didn’t look as complete a player as he did the year before either. A three percent drop in three-point percentage is alarming, and his defensive alertness seemed off the entire season. But he’s still perceived as a star or even a superstar in some circles. Boston would certainly get the most for him now.
So what would they get? It’s hard to know, since constructing fake trades in the NBA with all the aprons these days is like trying to paint Starry Night with ketchup and two tortilla chips. But Stevens has always managed to squeeze impossible returns out of assets, even when he isn’t negotiating from a position of strength. He acquired first-round picks when trading Marcus Smart for Porzingis. He got the Celtics under the second apron in 24 hours and got a legitimate asset back in Anfernee Simons. There is no indication that Stevens would not get an almost-shocking return for Brown.
That does not mean they should trade him. If there are no elite-tier assets on the table — think Trey Murphy III, Stephon Castle, maybe even Amen Thompson (but that’s a reach) type guys — then we hang up the phone. But Boston’s incentive to trade him is reasonable: Tatum is out, the gap year is on, and shouldn’t they capitalize on all of Brown’s value before he gets even more expensive and even older?
In most universes, the Celtics should keep him. But if Stevens can charge 140 cents on the dollar for Brown, I think I’m in. I never got there before they won the title, but this is a new world, one whose financial realities don’t care about my feelings. With guys like Mookie Betts and Brad Marchand, I was angry because the return was slim and the insult was huge. But if there’s a great offer there, I won’t be angry simply on principle.