The Las Vegas Raiders believe Ashton Jeanty is a special player, as taking running backs inside the top 10 of the draft is an NFL trend that has mostly disappeared in recent years -- save for a player here or there who potentially possesses generational talent.
Pro Football Focus predicted on Wednesday, June 25, that the Raiders' decision to use the No. 6 overall selection on Jeanty in April is going to pay off in a big way, as the analytics-centric website projects him to finish inside the top five in the battle for the NFL rushing title during his rookie campaign.
PFF predicted Jeanty will finish the season with 1,227.9 rushing yards, good enough for fifth place. That total puts him just 0.8 yards behind the projected output of Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson in fourth.
Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty.
Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty.
Candice Ward-Imagn Images
Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles is projected to rush for 1,373.4 yards, while the Indianapolis Colts' Jonathan Taylor and Baltimore Ravens' Derrick Henry are predicted to tally 1,311.7 yards and 1,306.9 yards, respectively.
Listed alongside PFF's predictions are odds from DraftKings Sportsbook that give Jeanty a plus-1800 chance of leading the NFL in rushing yards. Those odds, coupled with PFF's yardage projection, afford Jeanty the most value of any running back with regards to a bet on the rushing title in the upcoming season.
The Raiders traded for quarterback Geno Smith and have perhaps the best tight end in football already in Brock Bowers. But the running game is going to be central to what Las Vegas does on offense in its first season under new head coach Pete Carroll. Jeanty nearly broke Barry Sanders' all-time collegiate rushing record last season with 2,601 rushing yards and is elite both before and after contact.
Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley
Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley
=Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
Barkley is probably the most likely to win the rushing title in 2025, though his odds are plus-275, which pulls his betting value considerably south. Meanwhile, Taylor has missed 16 games over the past three seasons, so health is a huge concern.
PFF projects Robinson to produce less than one rushing yard more than Jeanty, though Robinson's betting odds to lead the league in that category are plus-1100 -- far less lucrative than those belonging to Jeanty.
PFF predicts Henry will record 1,306.9 yards on the ground, and DraftKings lists his odds to be the 2025 rushing champ at plus-400.