The **Deshaun Watson** era, if you can call what this was that, looks to be officially over in Cleveland. He’ll be rehabbing a twice-torn Achilles for the majority of the season, there are four quarterbacks on the roster with a legitimate chance to make the team, and after the season the Browns can cut Watson with a post-June 1 designation and take zero cap hit in 2026. He started 19 games in three years and went 9-10 while throwing 12 interceptions and taking 70 sacks. His legacy in Cleveland remains for the near-future, with the Browns struggling to find not only a signal-caller they can dream of, but also to keep the current state of their win-now roster together due to the amount of money they owe Watson.
But at least we no longer have to write: “Ah, but this is the year he’ll be healthy and right.”
**Cleveland Browns 2024 Stats (RANK)**
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**Points per game:** 15.2 (32nd)
**Total yards per game:** 300.8 (28th)
**Plays per game:** 65.8 (2nd)
**Dropbacks per game:** 48 (1st)
**Dropback EPA per play:** -0.2 (32nd)
**Rush attempts per game:** 23 (28th)
**Rush EPA per play:** -0.14 (27th)
Some like it fraught
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We’re not saying that there’s no reason to believe in fantasy football upside in Cleveland this year. We’re just saying that you should carefully evaluate what you believe in when you decide to bank your season on **Jerry Jeudy**.
Jeudy was the most-interesting fantasy football player on the Browns in 2024, finishing 14th among all receivers in PPR points and especially taking off in the back half of the season where he averaged 10.6 targets a game while mostly playing with **Jameis Winston**. All three of Jeudy’s highest-scoring weeks came with Winston in the saddle, as well as three of his four touchdowns. The targets remained high over the last three games as Cleveland absolutely tanked evaluated their 2025 quarterback options with **Dorian Thompson-Robinson** and (incredulous voice) **Bailey Zappe**. But Jeudy didn’t crack 100 yards in any of the three games despite being thrown to 34 times.
Is it possible that Jeudy and one of the quarterbacks we’ll be discussing become a WR2-worthy combo again? It sure is. The thing about relying on garbage-time offense is that the passing game still needs to clear a certain threshold of “cromulence.” And the thing about relying on garbage-time offense on a bad team is that all of the sudden they may need some further evaluation for their two drafted rookie quarterbacks.
The Browns did not spend much this offseason. They lavished a new contract on **Myles Garrett** so that he would stop ignoring their texts and restructured **Jack Conklin**‘s contract. The highest-paid outside free agent they signed was **Joe Tryon-Shoyinka** as a potential solution on the edge. He got one year, $4.75 million. And the money was structured with enough void years so that his cap hit for 2025 is $1.9 million. As we said in the intro, the **Deshaun Watson** era is over, but it’s still here.
It’s certainly possible that the Browns have drafted enough difference-makers this year to at least bolster the team so that they aren’t as woeful as they were in 2024. But relying on major jumps from rookies is a game fraught with peril. Relying on receivers to carry you in fantasy football when they don’t know who is starting at quarterback next week carries plenty of risk. And that’s why you can get Jeudy closer to WR40 than WR15. The market has spoken.
Passing game
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**QB:** Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel, Shedeur Sanders
**WR:** Jerry Jeudy, David Bell
**WR:** Cedric Tillman, Jamari Thrash
**WR:** Diontae Johnson, DeAndre Carter
**TE:** David Njoku, Harold Fannin Jr.
Who will be the Browns starting quarterback? (**Shedeur Sanders**.) That’s the question that is dogging the nation. (Here’s **Shedeur Sanders** throwing a touchdown to Johnny Bagoballs in minicamp.) Some reporters say **Joe Flacco** and **Kenny Pickett** are the lead candidates. (But **Shedeur Sanders** was prank called.) And **Dillon Gabriel** of course is the highest-drafted quarterback the Browns selected, so he should have some runway in the future. (Oh my goodness settle down, these people aren’t **Shedeur Sanders**.)
My personal belief is that we should read this out in the order these quarterbacks hit the roster until we see real training camp results. That’s Pickett, Flacco, Gabriel, and Sanders. Pickett was not a fantasy-interesting quarterback in 2022 or 2023, and while some of that is because **Matt Canada** was calling plays, I’m not anticipating a major leap in an offensive infrastructure in Cleveland that is worn to the nubs. I do believe in Flacco as a fringe QB2 if he gets to start because of his success with **Kevin Stefanski** in 2023 — at least we know what that looks like, even if **Amari Cooper** is gone. I would handicap Gabriel as more likely to survive training camp and get the “developmental quarterback” nod late in the season. But I also think Sanders will stick around barring something unexpected happening. I just don’t think the Browns would use the pick if they weren’t at least somewhat committed to keeping him on the roster. And really, when you have four quarterbacks on the roster, you are open to surprises. This is a place where we should keep our eyes glued on the training camp and preseason results in August.
We’ve been over Jeudy. **Cedric Tillman** missed the last six weeks of the season with a major concussion suffered in the snow globe win over the Steelers. After becoming a more-or-less fulltime starter in Week 7, Tillman averaged 10 targets, 75.5 yards per game, and scored three touchdowns in four games. While he’s missed portions of the offseason with injury, I think Tillman makes for a viable late-round stab and should at the very least be on the waiver wire watch list early in the season.
I will write one sentence on **Diontae Johnson** for each team he played for in 2024. He wore out his welcome despite averaging 8.3 targets per game and 51 yards for the Panthers. The fact that he didn’t show in the early portion of the offseason is disappointing, but I’m not opposed to buying in on him if we get good training camp reports. **Jamari Thrash** seems to be the other possible slot option after playing 62 snaps in the last two weeks of the season, a stretch where he was held to two catchless targets. I don’t think Thrash needs to be on the radar until we see deeper signs of fantasy life.
**David Njoku** is now entering his age-29 season and has missed major portions of three of his last five years with injuries. While a Jeudy injury could elevate him higher in the pecking order for a short period of time, I’m largely at “it is what it is” with Njoku as a fantasy option. Low-end TE1 play is likely. He’s capable of huge spike weeks when he’s healthy and the Browns consciously decide to get him involved — he had 10 or more targets four times last year. He’s also capable of spending a lot of the year on your bench.
The Browns spending a premium draft pick on **Harold Fannin Jr.** despite not having a need at the position and trading away from **Travis Hunter** in the name of future picks is an eye-opening disendorsement of Njoku, who is entering the final year of his contract. It’s possible we see a transition away from Njoku as the season digs on, either when the losses pile up to the point where they need to see what Fannin is, or when Njoku gets hurt naturally. I will be curious what Fannin’s productivity looks like, but consider me an early buyer on the idea that he will be able to deliver TE1 production in an offense that lacks other weapons if he makes the field.
Sanders' speeding ticket shows 'lack of awareness'
Mike Florio weighs in on Cleveland Browns rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders getting multiple speeding tickets, discussing why it shows a "lack of awareness" and how he needs to change his behavior.
Running Game
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**RB**: Jerome Ford, Quinshon Judkins, Dylan Sampson
**OL (L-R)**: Dawand Jones, Joel Bitonio, Ethan Pocic, Wyatt Teller, Jack Conklin
The ol’ “let’s invest two draft picks at the position where our starter is entering the final year of his rookie contract” move has historically not ended well for the incumbent back. Ford then accepted a paycut this offseason, hinting at the idea that he may not have been a roster lock had he not.
Judkins and Sampson would both be more interesting fantasy football backs if the Browns had what we regarded as a functional offensive infrastructure, but the path to volume is certainly there. Browns GM Andrew Berry called Judkins a “bell cow runner that can really carry the load for us” in a post-draft presser. Judkins has been hanging around the RB25-RB35 juncture in early drafts despite that path to bellcow-dom, and one has to imagine the Browns would love nothing more than to run the ball given the four quarterbacks they employ. I think there are more paths to upside than currently accounted for in that ADP, and would feel comfortable grabbing him closer to RB20-25 myself once we hit the **D’Andre Swift** zone.
Sampson, to me, feels more like the back that hangs around in the third-down back role. (Berry said he had “untapped potential in the passing game.”) The one where he could slowly cut into Ford’s role there. I don’t know that Ford is worth drafting given his lack of receiving success last year, or if the Browns 3DRB role is worth major consideration in all formats this year. I think Sampson is probably the better back to hold for both committee plays and in the event of a Judkins injury, but Ford probably will retain some early-season value.
Lastly, we have to talk about the offensive line. This is not the 2023 Browns offensive line. Bitonio will turn 34 in October. Teller and Conklin are entering their age-31 seasons. Pocic turns 30 before the season. The best you could say for this line last year is that there were no major weak links and they mostly were able to stay on the field. Now, a year later, with several depth pieces added, I think it’s clear that a huge problem should at least be in the range of outcomes. That lowers the floor of the entire offense, in my view. But then again, that floor was already pretty low and priced in to most of the pieces.
Cleveland Browns 2025 win total
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You have to pay minus-160 to get to the over 4.5 wins line. I don’t know that it’s a great bet to pick them over that even in an NFL where they have the fourth-place schedule, though I can certainly see some rebound.
There’s currently a special where you can bet on Cleveland’s record after five weeks. (The gauntlet to start the season is: vs. CIN, @ BAL, vs. GB, @ DET, vs. MIN.) Zero wins is +340. Just wanted to point that out. The Bengals should give you some real pause there, but this team is bad enough on paper that it should be a significant underdog in all five of those games.
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