The New Orleans Saints begin training camp in just under a month, and Tyler Shough — their potential starting quarterback — has not yet signed his rookie contract.
What gives?
The Saints and Shough are negotiating over the guaranteed portion of the rookie's fourth-year salary, a source with knowledge of the situation confirmed.
It's a similar situation across the NFL.
In all, as CBS Sports reported, 30 of the league's 32 second-rounders have yet to sign their rookie contracts. The negotiations have slowed down in part because the Houston Texans and the Cleveland Browns became the first teams this year to give fully guaranteed contracts for their second-round selections, wide receiver Jayden Higgins and linebacker Carson Schwesinger.
Before this year, first-round draft picks were the only rookies to earn fully guaranteed deals. But with the now-established precedent, others — including Shough — want to see if the deals trigger a wave of teams agreeing to a fully guaranteed fourth year. Or at the very least, they want to see if teams start to guarantee a higher percentage of the fourth-year base salary.
To understand more, the Times-Picayune spoke with NFL agent and salary-cap expert J.I. Halsell about Shough’s chances and whether the issue could linger into camp.
Will Saints fully guarantee Shough's deal?
If there’s one thing to know about the NFL, there are exceptions almost always made for quarterbacks.
That doesn’t mean the Saints will automatically meet Shough’s asking price. But Halsell noted that teams tend to get innovative on these sorts of issues when the most important position is involved.
Take Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis, for instance. Drafted 33rd overall in 2023, Levis received additional guarantees in the form of roster bonuses for the second, third and fourth year of his rookie deal. That was a different structure from how the Titans operated with 2022 second-round cornerback Roger McCreary, whose guarantees were limited to the first three years of his base salary, a tiny portion of his fourth-year salary and his signing bonus.
“The great thing about the Saints is that (assistant general manager and cap guru) Khai Harley, if you’ve looked at the deals he’s done since he’s been there, has shown a willingness to be creative,” Halsell said. “He and Mickey (Loomis) have shown a certain level of creativeness.
“You’re going to need that creativity to find some middle ground (that’s) win-win for both the club and the agent.”
Halsell suggested that middle ground could entail having the fourth year of Shough’s contract be guaranteed for injury only or by triggering the guarantee in terms of a roster bonus. That would be similar to how the Saints guaranteed portions of Derek Carr’s four-year, $150 million contract in 2023. That would allow Shough’s camp to claim they got a “fully guaranteed contract” while not actually making it fully guaranteed, Halsell said.
Complicating matters is also the NFL’s rookie wage scale. The scale determines the player’s specific salary based on when they were drafted, adjusted for the growth of the salary cap each year. So, because the salary is non-negotiable, teams and agents typically clash over smaller details such as when bonuses are to be paid and how much of the contract is guaranteed.
Shough was the 40th overall pick, and historically, that doesn't do the quarterback any favors. Last year’s 40th selection, Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Cooper DeJean, had only the first two years of his base salary fully guaranteed and gained a partial guarantee in the third year. New Orleans edge rusher Isaiah Foksey, picked 40th in 2023, received three years guaranteed but not his fourth year.
How do the Saints approach second-round picks?
When trying to determine whether the Saints will guarantee all of Shough's deal, it’s important to examine their history of second-round contracts.
Since 2012, the first year that the league’s rookie wage scale went into effect, the Saints have drafted 10 other players in Round 2. The first eight only received guaranteed salaries for the first two years of their four-year contract.
But the dynamic shifted over the last two years.
Foskey’s contract was the first time the Saints guaranteed the entire third year of a base salary for a non-first-round, rookie-scale contract. And last year, the Saints even went so far as to guarantee a small portion ($168,700) of Kool-Aid McKinstry’s fourth-year base salary.
What changed? Well, blame the Texans, Halsell joked.
Halsell pointed out how in 2022, Houston guaranteed safety Jalen Pitre’s third-year base salary, which agents then used as precedent for players in a similar range. Pitre was the fifth pick in the second round that year, 37th overall.
“(It’s) a trickle-down effect,” said Halsell, who works at the same sports agency that represents Foskey. “This isn’t just unique to the Saints. It’s really a function of, ‘What are the teams ahead of us … and what have they done?’ …The impact of the Jalen Pitre deal helped all the second-round picks the following year get more Year 3 money guaranteed.”
This year, that trickle-down effect started when the Texans set a new standard with Higgins, followed by the Browns with Schwesinger. Shough's leverage could come down to whether the unsigned players ahead of him then blink by agreeing to only a partial guarantee.
When will it be time to worry? And will Shough hold out?
Though precedents can ultimately facilitate deals, they also can slow down negotiations as the two sides go back and forth over whether the terms actually apply.
Foskey and the Saints, for instance, didn’t announce a completed deal until July 19 — days before the start of training camp. And the year before that, cornerback Alontae Taylor also waited until July 19 to sign his rookie contract.
History suggests that the Saints and Shough will figure something out before camp, which players must report for on July 22. If they don’t, Halsell said it would be common for a player in a similar situation to hold out — though rookie holdouts have become a lot more rare since the wage scale was implemented.
Shough, for his part, participated in the entire offseason program despite not having a contract. Rookies can sign waivers that allow them to practice while negotiations take place and protect the player in the event of an injury.
But if the Saints want Shough to be their starting quarterback, and if the rookie wants to win the job, there’s a seeming deadline for a deal to be complete.
Who budges to get it done will be fascinating to see.