The Magpies have a substantial transfer budget available with head coach Eddie Howe targeting 'three or four' significant upgrades to his current starting XI
The plan is for Newcastle United’s big summer to come in three stages.
The first – kickstarted this week with a substantial bid of around £40-45m for Nottingham Forest winger Anthony Elanga that is set to be followed up in the coming days – is to secure “three or four” significant upgrades on their current starting XI.
Negotiations are under way with Burnley over goalkeeper James Trafford and Brighton for forward Joao Pedro, while the club are also working on a small pool of centre-back targets that includes Crystal Palace’s Marc Guehi.
All are Eddie Howe’s top targets as the manager, who puts a premium on Premier League experience, consolidates his influence over the club’s transfer strategy as Paul Mitchell heads for the exit door. Other, overseas targets are also in play.
When stage one is done – and Newcastle have financial headroom and the inclination to spend around £150m on stage one, it is understood – they will then turn to player trading before a third, more dynamic stage before the transfer deadline in September where additional recruits will depend on the funds raised in the second stage.
Sources insist Alexander Isak will not be sold this summer (Photo: Getty)
At no point do they intend to sell Alexander Isak to Liverpool, despite talk of anxiety at St James’ Park this week.
Insiders laughed off rumours of a £120m bid – he is simply not for sale – and there is no deadline for completion being put on contract negotiations that will open later this summer.
Still, there is a measure of frustration on Tyneside that Newcastle remain stuck in the negotiation stage of things given they have just completed two transfer windows without bringing in a major signing.
The reason for a fallow January was complying with profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) that have hemmed in the Magpies. Now they are freed of them they can spend big, right?
“Look at our transfers so far,” one insider says. “Every single one of them has represented good value and it’s the same this summer. If we can’t find that, we’ll move on pretty quickly to a deal that does give it.”
It was pointed out that former minority owner Amanda Staveley’s line about the club not being able to afford a “transfer dud” still rings true so that is why they intend to stick to their valuations.
How much should they pay for their top targets?
Newcastle’s first bid for Elanga, tabled on Tuesday, was a package worth between £40m and £45m which was rejected by Forest – who say they don’t want to sell – although there is a belief that a deal could be done.
But if Forest do want £60m, that is more than Newcastle should pay, according to market experts.
The i Paper commissioned football analytics company Sci Sports to assess a reasonable price for Elanga and Pedro using their high-tech Estimated Transfer Value (ETV) model, which uses past prices, on-pitch performance and cutting-edge artificial intelligence to track valuations.
Elanga’s value, they report, is at an all-time high of £42.1m after a steep rise in the last 18 months.
For Pedro, with Brighton willing sellers, they estimate his value at £52.1m.
Anthony Elanga’s estimated transfer value as per Sci Sports (Graphic: Sci Sports)
Joao Pedro’s estimated transfer value as per Sci Sports (Graphic: Supplied)
Sources suggest Newcastle’s valuation of both is similar, although they’re willing to negotiate.
So what we are waiting to find out is how good the Magpies are at spinning plates.
As of Thursday night, they are still working on deals for Elanga, Pedro and Trafford – but club sources say they’re ready to move on if the difference in valuation is too high.
Who are they closest on?
There is still work to do on a deal for Trafford, but all parties seem to agree that the move should be completed.
Trafford is keen, Newcastle believe he is the likely successor to Jordan Pickford as England goalkeeper and Burnley have already signed a replacement.
But there is still work to do and a resolution this week feels unlikely.
Newcastle already have five keepers of course, but The i Paper understands that John Ruddy, the experienced third-choice last season, is exploring his options as he considers whether to re-sign at St James’ Park.
It is understood there is some interest from former club Norwich City.
The path is also clear for Odysseas Vlachodimos to leave on loan though he only wants to leave for a club in a top five European league, having turned down a move to Saudi Arabia in January.
Nick Pope doesn’t want to leave and the plan would be for the increased competition to sharpen the focus of the former England international, with Trafford viewed as the long-term answer.
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What about player trading?
Still seen as key to Newcastle’s recruitment model, the club want to become smart sellers again this summer.
Mitchell began that process with astute deals to sell Lloyd Kelly and Miguel Almiron in January.
Similar outgoings would be entertained during this window, with the club open to potential offers for the likes of Sean Longstaff and Joe Willock.
While Howe has always insisted Lewis Miley is the future of the club, a sale of the midfielder would represent pure profit in PSR terms.
As first reported last month, Arsenal have an interest in Anthony Gordon, although Newcastle’s valuation is north of £80m.
The early indications are that there isn’t much of a market for Gordon at that price.