In the time it takes a receiver to run the 40-yard dash, odds-makers issued over-under win totals for every NFL team after the league’s schedule was unveiled May 14.
Who does Las Vegas think will dominate the regular season? Or be a punching bag? Or is in the dreaded middle?
A four-team cluster – the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens – led with 11½ wins. The New Orleans Saints were in the caboose (4½ wins).
As training camp approaches next month (the Bills’ first practice is July 23 in Pittsford), here are five teams apiece to bet the “over” and “under.”
‘Over’ teams
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Led by reigning NFL MVP quarterback Josh Allen, the Buffalo Bills have an over-under this year of 11½ wins, tied for most in the league. Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
Bills 11½
Yes, the Bills play the Eagles, Chiefs and Ravens (all at home), but coach Sean McDermott’s history demands an over wager.
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The Bills have hit the over in seven of McDermott’s eight seasons, the only under was 2018 (6-10 with an over-under of 6½ wins). Even as their over-under has reached double-digit wins (2021-24), the Bills have hit the over.
Playing the NFC South (no teams with an over-under of more than 9½ wins) and the rest of the AFC East (none more than 8½ wins) should produce another season of at least 12-13 wins.
Washington 9½
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Washington’s players, after last year’s surprising run to the NFC title game, are seeing their names in lights this offseason. Will it equal a step back? No.
The Commanders, led by quarterback Jayden Daniels, must use their early-season schedule to start quickly – they open with the New York Giants, followed by at Green Bay, vs. Las Vegas and at Atlanta.
Stacking wins will be required, since Washington plays Philadelphia in Weeks 16 and 18.
Jacksonville 7½
Talk about organizational-wide upgrades this offseason in executive vice president Tony Boselli (new position), general manager James Gladstone (replaced Trent Baalke), coach Liam Coen (replaced Doug Pederson) and cornerback/receiver Travis Hunter (second overall pick).
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The Jaguars are starting over (again), but there are good players on this roster, led by second-year receiver Brian Thomas Jr., and let’s face it, the AFC South remains a debacle.
Jacksonville needs to survive Weeks 2-7 – vs. Houston, at San Francisco, vs. Kansas City, vs. Seattle and vs. the Los Angeles Rams in London. If it does, the Jaguars play one 2024 playoff team (at Denver) in the final seven games.
Las Vegas 6½
The Raiders have improved at coach (Antonio Pierce to Pete Carroll) and quarterback (several players to Geno Smith).
Carroll will make sure the Raiders maximize tight end Brock Bowers (112 catches as a rookie) and edge rusher Maxx Crosby (7½ sacks last year).
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The Raiders play in the ultra-difficult AFC West, so they won’t make the playoffs, but they are a prudent over bet.
N.Y. Giants 6½
A team comes out of nowhere – the outhouse – every year, so why not the Giants improving with new quarterback Russell Wilson?
The Giants have a superstar receiver in Malik Nabors and elite players on defense in Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux.
The Giants have the league’s toughest schedule based on 2024 records (.571 win percentage), but they will get to seven wins.
‘Under’ teams
Philadelphia 11½
Philadelphia’s Super Bowl defense will include a whopping 11 games against 2024 playoff teams, including trips to Kansas City (Week 2), Tampa Bay (Week 4), Minnesota (Week 7), Green Bay (Week 10), the Los Angeles Chargers (Week 14), Washington (Week 16) and the Bills (Week 17). Whew, what a schedule.
Maybe the weakest part of the schedule is Giants, Minnesota and Giants in a three-week stretch, and even the Vikings have the league’s best player (receiver Justin Jefferson).
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Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff will work with new offensive coordinator John Morton this year after Ben Johnson became coach of the Chicago Bears. Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
Detroit 10½
Detroit must overcome a brain drain after offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn were hired to big-whistle jobs with Chicago and the New York Jets, respectively.
In the NFC North, the Bears should be better, but our pick to win remains Detroit with a 10-7 record.
How attractive are the Lions and their schedule? Of their eight road games with a scheduled kickoff, none are at 1 p.m.
Houston 9½
Quick – or we’ll give you several minutes – name one thing the Texans did well this offseason?
Houston signed a bunch of offensive linemen – Cam Robinson, Laken Tomlinson, Ed Ingram and Trent Brown – with the hope that two or three emerge as starter-level players.
The Texans will lean on rookie second-round receivers Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins to make up for the loss of Stefon Diggs (allowed to sign with New England) and Tank Dell (knee injury on Christmas Day).
Tampa Bay 9½
Tampa Bay has won four consecutive NFC South titles, but have won 13, eight, nine and 10 wins during those seasons, so it’s not like the Buccaneers have run away from the competition.
Atlanta should be better, and Carolina showed a pulse in the final half of 2024 (4-5 in last nine games).
The Buccaneers’ big offseason addition on defense was edge rusher Haason Reddick, who promptly skipped the voluntary program.
Minnesota 8½
Plan A for Minnesota was to go through this transition season in 2024 after drafting quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Instead, McCarthy (knee) didn’t play a snap.
The Vikings are confident enough in McCarthy that they let Sam Darnold walk to Seattle and declined to seriously pursue free agent Aaron Rodgers, who eventually signed with Pittsburgh.
Jefferson again will help Minnesota remain competitive, but the Vikings look like an 8-9 team.
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