It's hard to stay good long term in the NFL. In baseball, there is no salary cap, so if your owner can do it, you can keep paying people. In the NBA, you can use all kinds of shenanigans to keep your homegrown players. In the NFL, not only is there one hard cap number, but players rarely play into second or third contracts anyway. Let's take a look at how the inferior teams in the NFC North may evolve next off-season.
Bears
As it stands, the Bears have a yikes-inducing ($4.6mm) of cap space in 2026. That's a negative number. Just to sign their draft class, they'll need to shed at least $10mm. Right now, they have about $14mm of 2025 space that would carry over. That covers the downfall but leaves them basically nothing to use in free agency. And that's only if they don't spend anything else this year. We'll go over mechanisms they can use to get more space, but, first, let's talk about who they could lose in free agency.
And...it's not really anyone significant. Off and on safeties Kevin Byard and Jaquan Brisker will be free agents. Journeyman d-lineman Andrew Billings will be one. And that's close to it among impactful players.
So, who's at risk? The two most obvious are DJ Moore and Montez Sweat, who combine for a total of $53.1 million against the cap. Sheesh! Moore is already signed through 2029, his age-32 season, so an extension isn't really an option there. Sweat is signed through 2027, when he'll be 31. Probably no extension there either. If they traded Sweat and restructured Moore they'd save close to $29mm in a couple fell swoops (more like fail swoop amirite). That opens up plenty of space, but it sucks to get rid of a guy who was the best player on your defense like a year ago and shove $15mm of cap out to over age 30 years for like the 27th best receiver in the NFL. These are the things you have to deal with in a sh** franchise.
Another option is to cut Tremaine Edmunds. That saves $15mm and he's bad, so double-plus good. But, again, it sucks to cut a "star" free agent. De'Andre Slow would save around $7.5mm and Cole Kmet would save $8.4mm.
Not a lot of options! I guess they can count on a top-ten pick.
Lions
The Lions are also starting out in a rough spot: they're $55mm over the cap for 2026. Not good!
They're at about $40mm in space right now for 2024, so plenty to roll over, but still not close to enough. Note that Over the Cap still has Frank Ragnow on the books for both seasons. His retirement may change those numbers.
How about free agents? DJ reader, Alex Anzalone, Tim Patrick and Amik Robertson are the biggest names. Again, not bad. Probably don't need to re-sign any of them.
So we need to dump/move around probably $30mm of cap, minimum, to get to where you can sign the draftees and have some flexibility. There's a big ole elephant in the room here.
Jared Goff has a $70mm (!!!!!!!) cap number. Well, $69.6mm, but still. Give me several breaks. And you can't even cut him! Cut him pre-June 1 and he leaves $99mm of dead cap, meaning he counts $30mm MORE against the cap than he would have otherwise. Cut him post-June 1 and there's no savings - equal dead cap and cap hit. So, that's out.
A trade is possible: that would save $55mm, which would be pretty good. And who knows what you could get in the draft with your shiny new 2029 7th-round pick. And that's the problem. Who the hell wants Jared Goff for $60mm?
So the answer is to restructure him. Max out the restructure and you save $40.2mm in cap space. That gets you where you need to be to operate. But it's horrendous, really. The Lions had 1.5 good years and they got themselves into this insane place where Jared Goff (Jared Goff!) has a $70mm cap hit and they have to push $40mm into his age 33-35 seasons to do the bare minimum with their roster. And guess what?! His cap hit in 2027 is $54.6mm as it stands and $61.6mm in 2028. They're meant to increase those hits by $15mm and then sign Brian Branch and Aidan Hutchinson? Who's gonna play at the other 18 spots?
You can say they're betting on the salary cap increasing between now and then, but that's not a cinch bet. The Packers did that pre-COVID, and now the Aaron Rodgers era Packers only won one Super Bowl. Do we really expect another huge jump in the cap the year after Taylor Swift loses interest in the NFL?
Vikings
Alright, the Vikings have $23.5mm in carry-overable space for 2025 and they are $61mm in the hole for 2026. Somehow, the worst yet!
Again no real blue-chip free agents, with Harrison Smith probably the only big name. So we have about $40mm in cap space to clear.
Cutting Brian O'Neill, Harrison Phillips and Aaron Jones saves $34mm. Still $5 or $6mm to go. The easy answer then is to restructure Justin Jefferson and get his number down from $39mm. They can max that out and save $18mm or go lower and keep some room for future years, when they'll have to pay a QB if they're lucky.
Each of the inferior teams has a clear enough pathway to opening up space. And I'm sure the cap will be higher than what Over the Cap is showing but the point is clear: you can't be good forever. All three of these teams are going to have some tough decisions next off-season. Lace up.