On Wednesday, Pro Football Focus released its list of the top-10 NFL head coaches. Most people expected Andy Reid to be in the No. 1 spot. However, Minnesota Vikings fans were surprised when Kevin O’Connell, last year’s Coach of the Year, missed the list entirely.
The top 10 returning head coaches in the NFL today 📊 pic.twitter.com/eCEDHdKXjF
— PFF (@PFF) June 25, 2025
At first glance, it feels disrespectful to omit the fourth-year head coach. O’Connell has compiled a 34-17 record in three seasons, a .667 win percentage that ranks 15th all-time. He has done so with quarterbacks Kirk Cousins, Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Sam Darnold, whose combined record without O’Connell is 93-122-2 (43.3 win percentage). The Vikings have reached the playoffs in two of O’Connell’s three seasons while navigating the salary cap in its “competitive rebuild.”
O’Connell has exceeded any reasonable expectations since the Vikings hired him in 2022.
However, his resumé begins to pale in comparison to the longtime coaches on the list. Sean Payton made the playoffs in his first year with the Denver Broncos. As much as Minnesota fans despise him, he remains one of the best offensive minds in recent memory. Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan are younger, but they have seen consistent success as innovative offensive coaches since being hired in 2017.
Jim and John Harbaugh also made the list. The Baltimore Ravens have been consistently good since John took over in 2008, amassing a .623 win percentage in that span, even if they feel like they can’t get out of their own way in the playoffs recently. Jim got the Los Angeles Chargers back to the playoffs in his first year coaching in the NFL since 2014.
And say what you want about Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers, but they have been the model of consistency. They famously haven’t had a losing season since Tomlin took the job in 2007, even though they’ve struggled offensively since Ben Roethlisberger retired following the 2021 season.
Unlike those coaches, O’Connell lacks playoff success. Despite being favored in both games, the Vikings are 0-2 in the postseason under O’Connell. While we can blame Ed Donatell for the 31-24 loss to the New York Giants in 2022 or Darnold and the offensive line for losing to the Los Angeles Rams this year, O’Connell is ultimately responsible for the results as the head coach.
PFF ranked Nick Sirianni and Dan Campbell No. 8 and No. 9, respectively. Both were hired in 2021, and they have unique coaching styles that probably wouldn’t work in any other city or for any other coach. Still, Philadelphia may be the only place that can fully embrace a screaming lunatic on the sidelines. Sirianni won the Super Bowl back in February, so his style works.
Campbell has an old-school approach, preaching “grit” and “toughness” like your old high-school strength coach. But he’s won back-to-back NFC North titles and got the Detroit Lions to the NFC Championship in 2023. The Lions also have had Minnesota’s number since O’Connell took over, including a 31-7 win in Week 18 to take the NFC North and earn the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
Kevin Stefanski has coached the Cleveland Browns since 2020 and holds the final spot. Stefanski guided Cleveland to the playoffs in his first season but missed their 48-37 Wild Card win over the Steelers after testing positive for COVID-19. In 2023, he made the playoffs despite starting five different quarterbacks. Stefanski won the NFL Coach of the Year award after both seasons.
Still, Stefanski has a 40-44 coaching record. After an 8-9 finish in 2021, the Browns moved on from Baker Mayfield and traded for Deshaun Watson. Cleveland gave up three first-round picks, a third-round pick, and a fourth-round pick in exchange for Watson. Since the disastrous trade, the Browns are 21-30, and Watson has only started 19 games, going 9-10 in those contests.
Like O’Connell, Stefanski hasn’t had much playoff success to warrant the top-10 spot. Even if he had coached Cleveland’s playoff victory over the Steelers, he’d still only be 1-2 in the postseason; 2025 could be a make-or-break season for Stefanski, showing he is trending down while O’Connell seems to be trending up.
Does that mean O’Connell would be a lock for the top 10 if PFF removed Stefanski from the list? Matt LaFleur has a .670 win percentage in six seasons as the Green Bay Packers’ head coach, 13th all-time. He has won three playoff games, reaching two NFC Championship games in his first two seasons.
Sean McDermott isn’t the most popular coach, but the results are hard to argue. The Buffalo Bills have a .656 win percentage in eight seasons. They’ve reached the playoffs seven-straight seasons and have gone 7-7 in the playoffs. In a world without Patrick Mahomes, the Bills, not the Chiefs, may have dominated the NFL this decade.
We can scream that O’Connell has better people skills than both coaches. We can argue that he schemes up better plays than McDermott could ever dream of. And we can project how great the Vikings will be when O’Connell’s handpicked quarterback, J.J. McCarthy, begins to play real games.
Still, until the Vikings begin to win playoff matchups, O’Connell will have a hard time topping lists like this. Maybe we won’t have to wait much longer for that to happen. But until it does, it’s hard to justify O’Connell’s place on these lists when other coaches have had more postseason success.