It's been a bit of a slow week in terms of Packers news. Players are soaking up their last bit of freedom before training camp starts, and to be honest, if your players aren't making headlines at the current moment, it's probably for the best. Many have received their fill of OTA news, and everybody, including their uncle, aunt, and cousin's former roommate, has had their fill of Jaire Alexander talk. Bit of a Spaceballs reference thrown in there if you didn't catch it. If you have no idea what I'm talking about, please find Spaceballs on the streaming service of your choice. Grab a beverage, a snack, enjoy, and call me in the morning. But there was one very minor headline that ground my gears this week. That would be a certain analyst's ranking of the current returning head coaches heading into 2025.
If you haven't seen it for yourself, Dalton Wasserman of Pro Football Focus released his top 10 returning head coaches. Here was the ranking:
1. Andy Reid - KC
2. Sean Payton - DEN
3. Sean McVay - LAR
4. John Harbaugh - BAL
5. Mike Tomlin - PIT
6. Jim Harbaugh - LAC
7. Kyle Shanahan - SF
8. Nick Sirianni - PHI
9. Dan Campbell - DET
10. Kevin Stefanski - CLE
First off, I will never argue about Andy Reid topping this list. He deserves it. I do believe he's top of the coaching list right now. Rounding out the top 5, I might move around some names, but overall, not a bad ranking. But then, 6-10, I struggle with. Jim Harbaugh returned to the NFL after a 10-year hiatus and took over a fairly talented Chargers team, and went from 5-12 to 11-6. To be honest, considering the talent on that team and the schedule they faced, I don't think it was that hard of a feat. Before his time with Michigan, sure, he had success with the 49ers, including a Super Bowl appearance, but I'd put Kyle Shanahan over Harbaugh here. Nick Sirianni might even deserve a nod over Harbaugh in my eyes, but I won't argue too hard.
My main frustration, though, lies with Dan Campbell and Kevin Stefanski rounding out the top 10. We get it, Dan Campbell has become this darling of the NFL, helping turn around a Lions franchise that has been miserable for decades. But a 58% win percentage with two coordinators who have been considered the best in their field these last few years, I feel, putting him at number nine is a bit of a reach. I think he should be more like 11-13, right on the cusp of proving himself as that big-time head coach. Kevin Stefanski, come on. A 47% winning percentage that includes a 3-14 season last year. That's a top-10 head coach in the league? He's had two winning seasons in his five-year tenure. I think Dalton Wasserman might be distracted by shiny objects while rounding out his top 10.
As a Packer fan, of course, I'm irritated at the omission of Matt LaFleur. Is that just because he's the Packers' coach? Sure, maybe that plays a little bit of a part, but when you understand that LaFleur has a 67% winning percentage in his six years in Green Bay and put it up against Campbell's 58% in four years and Stefanski's 47% in five years, I'd take LaFleur.
And no, Matt LaFleur is not just an Aaron Rodgers merchant as some like to claim.
Hushing the Disrespect
There's a downside to having a legendary quarterback. That downside is that everyone who plays with or coaches that quarterback gets a little asterisk next to their success. You hear comments like, "Well, yeah, he's a good receiver, look who's throwing him the ball, let's see what he does without them, and we'll talk." Or "That coach is only successful because they have this quarterback running the team, making their job easy." Which, in some cases, can be true; it's like they're guilty until proven innocent.
Former Packers' head coach Mike McCarthy dealt with this when Brett Favre departed Green Bay. He had success with Favre, now what's he going to do with Aaron Rodgers? Funny enough, due to Rodgers' success, McCarthy had to prove himself all over again when he went to Dallas. It's been later understood that Favre had a bit of a career renaissance due to Mike McCarthy, so maybe he was good all along. Matt LaFleur, of course, now has the task of doing what Mike McCarthy did. LaFleur had success with Rodgers for his first three seasons in Green Bay. He then had a slightly below-average season in Rodgers' final year in Green Bay, but then started a new QB in Jordan Love, and has had two winning seasons since. Aaron Rodgers might even agree that LaFleur led him on a career renaissance of his own, winning two more MVP awards with LaFleur as his head coach.
Like any other head coach who has success with a legendary quarterback, LaFleur has had to prove his value in that quarterback's absence. When Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy had success in the wake of Brett Favre's departure, some said it was because they had Brett Favre's team. They had guys that spent time with Brett Favre on offense, so they knew how to succeed cause of Brett. There may have been a little bit of truth to that fact for some of the receivers, but Rodgers and McCarthy proved that to be not the whole reason for the 10 years to follow.
This argument can't exactly be made for Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love's success post-Aaron Rodgers. The offense has seen a massive overhaul since Rodgers' final season in Green and Gold. The success of the offense now is all LaFleur and Love. And they're doing it with one of the league's youngest rosters in consecutive seasons.
Perhaps the greatest strength a head coach can have is overcoming adversity. This isn't just being down by a touchdown or two and pulling off a victory; it comes with handling personnel as well, week to week. When Jordan Love was hurt in weeks 2 & 3 of 2024, Matt LaFleur had to field a quarterback that he'd only known for 2-3 weeks. Malik Willis came in for those games, barely spending a few weeks in Green Bay before, and still helped lead the Packers to victory twice. Sure, Indy and Tennessee were miserable last year, but to still bring in a Quarterback who was yesterday's garbage to another NFL franchise just weeks before, game-plan to their strengths and pull off the victory, even against that QB's former team, is a masterclass in coaching. And it's not just the Quarterback, it's getting the rest of the team to buy into the plan and execute as well.
When outside analysts look at Matt LaFleur, it's obvious that they still see a coach who spent 4/6 seasons sending plays through a headset to a legend. But he's already proved to many close to the Packers that he's more than that. This upcoming 2025 season is more important than most think. Matt LaFleur may be on the cusp of being a top-10 head coach, but he could also be coaching for his job as well if things don't go well. With a very young, moldable roster, if LaFleur doesn't take a step ahead this season, he could be sent packing in favor of another voice to take over for these young players before it's too late for them.
I believe LaFleur is worthy of a top-10 position heading into 2025. But 2025 could also be the difference between him maintaining that position and crashing much further down the ranks.