No one can beat peak Christian McCaffrey: At his best, McCaffrey has outscored every other active running back at their best.
D.J. Moore has continuity at quarterback: The former first-round pick has never had the same quarterback play more than 400 snaps in two straight seasons. Barring injury,Caleb Williams will be the first.
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Several NFL players disappointed fantasy football managers last season for several reasons. In some cases, it was injuries, but in others, changes to the offense or both. While there were cases of declining veterans who might never return to their former value, there are players that we can expect to bounce back this season. All of these players should be healthier this season, and some of their offenses have changed, giving reason for optimism.
The average draft position listed is from a consensus between ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! for where the player is picked on average in a 12-team, redraft league.
Last updated: Monday, June 30
RBChristian McCaffrey,San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 2.01)
Christian McCaffrey was the eighth overall pick of the 2017 NFL Draft. Since he was drafted, there have been 10 cases of a running back averaging at least 24 fantasy points per game in a season, and he has four of them. That includes the only season in the past three years, and the top two seasons in fantasy points per game.
He’s achieved his elite fantasy production by being the best receiving back in the league, as well as the best runner. Since joining the San Francisco 49ers, he’s also benefited from playing in one of the best offenses in the league behind a strong offensive line.
McCaffrey’s downfall in recent seasons has been his injuries. He played every game in his first three seasons. In 2020, he suffered an ankle injury, an A/C joint sprain and glute strain, leading him to only play three games. In 2021, he suffered a hamstring strain followed by an ankle sprain, leading him to play in seven games. This past year, he dealt with Achilles tendinitis in both feet. He returned for four games but then a PCL sprain ended his season.
By all accounts, McCaffrey should be at 100% for the start of the season. However, he is 29 years old, past the age when running backs peak. McCaffrey wasn’t very effective in his four games last season, but he likely wasn’t 100% in those games. He could be back to his normal self, in which case, he could be the top overall running back in fantasy. There is also a chance we never see the same player he was in 2023, when he was a first-team All-Pro.
The 49ers' offensive line was a major asset for McCaffrey in 2023 when it had the highest team run-blocking grade. The line wasn’t as good in 2024, but it still ranked third overall. Left tackle Trent Williams had his run-blocking grade drop from the 90.0s to 81.4, which is still very good but not as elite as he once was. He will be 37 years old by the start of the season, so we can’t expect him to return to his 2023 form. Finding Dominick Puni was a big win for the 49ers' offense. The primary concern heading into 2025 is at left guard after Aaron Banks landed with the Green Bay Packers. Nick Zakelj is penciled in for the starting role, but he hasn’t looked great in his two career starts.
This should still be one of the better offensive lines in the league, but it may fall out of the top five.
McCaffrey is one of the riskiest picks a fantasy manager can make early in drafts because he has a wider range of outcomes than most players. While anyone could get injured, McCaffrey’s repeated injuries make him more of an injury risk. Even if he doesn’t suffer another injury, the 49ers could consider limiting his workload, or the injuries could have stopped him from being as elite, which naturally happens with age anyway. He could also dominate leagues if he returns to his usual form.
WRD.J. Moore,Chicago Bears (ADP: 5.01)
DJ Moore spent the first five years of his career with the Carolina Panthers. From 2019 to 2021, he consistently gained 1,150-1,200 receiving yards but secured only four touchdowns each season. In 2022, the Panthers usedBaker Mayfield,Sam Darnold and P.J. Walker at quarterback throughout the season, and they combined for less than 3,000 passing yards, so Moore gained only 888 yards. However, he caught seven touchdown passes, despite the team having only 16 passing touchdowns. He consistently finished in the WR16-WR25 range, making him a reliable starter but not among the league’s elite.
The Panthers traded Moore to the Chicago Bears in 2023 as part of the deal that landed themBryce Young. This paired Moore withJustin Fields, with whom he enjoyed the best season of his career. His PFF receiving grade, receiving yards, yards per route run and receiving touchdowns were all career highs. He was consistently strong at avoiding tackles early in his NFL career, and while that took a step back in his later years with the Panthers, his rate rebounded with Chicago.
The Bears made several changes on offense in 2024, featuring new quarterbackCaleb Williams, new wide receivers Keenan Allen andRome Odunze and new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. They ran more passing plays, but Moore’s target rate decreased slightly, leading to a very similar number of targets and receptions as in 2023. While he remained the team’s X receiver, his average target depth dropped considerably, as did his deep target rate. This left him averaging more than 20 fewer receiving yards per game, just from the different role. His end-zone target rate also decreased, leading to fewer touchdowns. After a top-10 finish in 2023, Moore returned to being a reliable WR2, as he was with the Panthers.
New Bears head coach Ben Johnson is a positive force for the team's offense. His Detroit Lions ran a lot of plays and scored a lot of points. However, he consistently runs more than the average team, which will likely lead to a decrease in routes per game. His offenses have had no problem targeting other positions, which will stay true this season after Chicago's first-round draft investment in Colston Loveland.
Johnson’s Lions had a unique trio of wide receivers, including a tall, possession-centric X receiver with a low target share in Tim Patrick (and previously Josh Reynolds), a speedy Z receiver inJameson Williams and a slot receiver who can also play on the outside inAmon-Ra St. Brown.
The Bears' receivers are generally bigger than the Lions’. The closest fit is Odunze at X, as he is the tallest, biggest and slowest of the trio. Moore has traditionally played on the outside as an X or Z receiver, and Burden is more experienced in the slot from his time at Missouri, but there is at least a chance their roles will flip this season. Burden is the fastest and lightest of the three, which best matches Williams. Moore is a little faster than St. Brown and slightly larger, but he is the closest comparison to St. Brown.
The best chance for Moore to maximize his fantasy value could be by learning St. Brown’s role in the offense. However, given the differences in the Bears' receivers compared to the Lions', Johnson might reinvent his passing game to better play to his players' strengths.
Assuming Caleb Williams doesn’t suffer an injury that costs him most of the season, this will be the first time in Moore’s NFL career with a quarterback who plays at least 400 snaps in back-to-back years. Moore is usually a safe WR2 option, but many variables could influence his fantasy value in 2025. He could play the slot role in Ben Johnson’s offense with an improvedCaleb Williams, giving him top-10 potential.
WRJaylen Waddle,Miami Dolphins (ADP: 7.02)
Waddle was the sixth overall pick of the 2021 draft. He immediately became the top wide receiver on a Dolphins depth chart that had DeVante Parker, Albert Wilson and Mack Hollins. His 7.0-yard average depth of target was the lowest of his career, leading to a low 9.8 yards per reception. He earned 104 receptions for 1,015 yards. He finished 15th in fantasy points per game.
Injuries started to become a problem for Waddle at the start of the 2022 season. He started the season in the injury report due to a quadricep injury, spent two weeks off the report and then spent nearly a month with a groin injury, over a month with a shoulder injury and a week with a fibula injury before he was listed again with a shoulder injury followed by an ankle injury to end the season. In 2023, it was an oblique, followed by a concussion, which cost him a game. He returned and was relatively healthy for a month but then dealt with back, knee and ankle injuries that cost him the final two games of the regular season.
Last season was the worst of Waddle’s career, but he was relatively healthy throughout. He caught five passes for 109 yards in Week 1. He averaged 32 yards per game over the following five games withTua Tagovailoa out. He showed up on the injury report for a week due to a quadricep injury, but he still struggled for another month with 34 yards per game during a four-game stretch. He finally returned to form for three weeks, finishing with 21 receptions for 296 and a touchdown over three weeks. He suffered a knee injury in the following game, costing him two games, and then returned to a quiet game. While Waddle didn’t appear on the injury report nearly as much in 2024 as the previous two seasons, his NGS Tracking Data suggests his speed was slower last season compared to previous years.
Despite the injuries and low level of play last season, he’s still among the better receivers once the ball is in his hands. His 5.8 yards after the catch per catch over the last three years is second-best among all wide receivers. This has helped him gain at least 10 yards on 69.3% of his receptions, which is also the second-highest rate.
His primary competition for targets remainsTyreek Hill, although there have been trade rumors on and off throughout the season. Waddle is around the age when wide receivers peak, while Hill is around the age when wide receivers retire, so it’s possible that Waddle becomes the team’s target leader. The Dolphins have tried out several different wide receivers for the third, fourth and fifth spots on the depth chart during Mike McDaniel’s term. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine appears to be taking that third role this season, despite competition from Malik Washington. None of them will threaten Waddle’s target rate, and one will need to step up if Hill is traded.
Waddle is a top-10 fantasy wide receiver at his best, but he had a down season last year, and there is no clear reason why. It was probably the cumulative effect of injuries over several years. If that’s the case, maybe he’ll be back to normal next year, but it’s also possible he’ll never be back to being the same player.
RBRhamondre Stevenson,New England Patriots (ADP: 10.05)
The Patriots changed coaching staffs and gave Stevenson a new backup in Antonio Gibson for 2024. He started the season as the clear focal point of the offense, finishing with 46 carries for 201 yards and two touchdowns in the first two weeks. However, he fumbled four times in the first four weeks. He didn’t start in Week 5 but ended up running for 89 yards and a touchdown anyway. He was inactive for Week 6 with a foot sprain.
The Patriots eased him in one week and then went back to relying heavily on him, as he received at least 15 touches per game and finished three games with at least 20 carries. However, he averaged 4.0 or fewer yards per carry in each of his first six games back from injury. Stevenson started playing better for a three-game stretch in December, finishing with 73-94 yards per game, but he also fumbled twice during that stretch. The Patriots were blown out 7-40 the following week, and they turned more toward Gibson again due to Stevenson’s fumbles. Stevenson was one of the veterans the Patriots opted not to play in Week 18.
Stevenson didn’t have a problem with fumbles in the first three years of his career, and most of his fumbles occurred in the first four weeks last season. Fumbles aren’t consistent from one season to the next, so that shouldn’t be a major problem this season.
The Patriots retained Antonio Gibson, who is experienced on both early downs and passing downs, but also addedTreVeyon Henderson with the 38th pick in the NFL draft. Henderson was the passing down back for Ohio State last season. Henderson has been praised for his receiving and pass protection, and he will likely take most of the third-down work away from Stevenson. There is a decent chance that Henderson will also take a lot of the two-minute drill work, which will also cut into Henderson’s value.
Josh McDaniels is the new Patriots offensive coordinator after spending two years as the Las Vegas Raiders head coach, over a decade as the Patriots' offensive coordinator under Bill Belichick, a brief stint as the Denver Broncos head coach from 2009 to 2010 and serving as the St. Louis Rams‘ offensive coordinator in 2011.
Throughout McDaniels’ coaching career, he has consistently utilized a committee at running back. In 18 years as a head coach or offensive coordinator, there has only been one season where the back leading the team in carries was also the back receiving the most third-down snaps. The exception was in 2011 with three-time Pro Bowl running back Steven Jackson. His last running back wasJosh Jacobs, who played more third-down snaps before McDaniels arrived and after McDaniels left than when McDaniels was there.
McDaniels has often turned to three-back committees. This included his last season with the Patriots, where Stevenson and Harris both played on early downs and Bolden on third downs. The ideal case for Stevenson is that he’s in a two-back committee with Henderson, where Stevenson is the early down back and Henderson gets the passing-down work, but Stevenson may need to rotate with Gibson in the same way he once had to rotate with Harris.
Stevenson’s rushing production relies heavily on his offensive line, more so than nearly any other running back. He averages 8.0 yards per carry on perfectly blocked runs and 3.1 on non-perfectly blocked runs. All running backs are better with better blocking, but his yards per carry gap on the two is among the largest in the league. His 3.2 yards after contact per attempt rank seventh-best among running backs, suggesting he is a better back than his recent stats suggest, but his offensive lines have been the problem. The Patriots' offensive line was in the top 10 in his rookie season when he ran for 4.6 yards per carry. They ranked at the bottom of the league last season, leading Stevenson to average 3.9 yards per carry. This left his fantasy value relatively low despite a career-high in rushing attempts per game.
While the Patriots had the lowest team run-blocking grade last season, they’ve taken some steps to improve. This includes selectingWill Campbell with the fourth overall pick and bringing in veterans Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury. Both Moses andMike Onwenu had down years last season. It seems unlikely the line will be average next year, but the Patriots have hopefully done enough not to be in last again. Even a small difference could lead to a big difference in Stevenson’s rushing production.
While some are assuming Stevenson will be a complete non-factor after theTreVeyon Henderson selection, Stevenson should still receive double-digit carries each week and be more effective on those runs than last season. However, his receiving work might not be enough to make him someone worth starting every week. He could be very game script dependent, making him someone to start if the Patriots are expected to win, and someone to sit if not.
QBTrevor Lawrence,Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: 15.08)
Trevor Lawrence’s fantasy value peaked in 2022, finishing with a career-high 25 passing touchdowns and a career-high five rushing touchdowns. This led him to finish 12th in fantasy points per game. His quality of play improved in 2023, and he dropped back to pass more often. This led to more passing yards, but he threw fewer touchdowns and ran for fewer touchdowns. This helped him finish among the top-18 fantasy quarterbacks more often but among the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks less often, and ultimately decreased his fantasy value.
Lawrence’s fantasy value continued to dip in 2024. His per-game stats are somewhat deceiving, as he had a game with only 10 passing attempts, but he was held under 200 passing yards in five other games. He failed to reach 200 yards only twice in 2023. Two of these games were from a very low passing attempt total, but there was one game where he had 38 attempts and 178 yards. These games largely occurred beforeBrian Thomas Jr. fully broke out and whileEvan Engram was injured.
Lawrence suffered a shoulder injury in Week 9, which he also suffered at the end of 2023. He returned briefly in Week 13, but he suffered a concussion and didn’t return that season. Throughout Lawrence’s last three seasons, he’s been a high-risk, high-reward quarterback. His 1.8 big-time throws per game over the last two seasons are the fourth-most among quarterbacks, but he’s also had one of the highest turnover-worthy throw rates.
Lawrence is learning a new offensive system this year with Liam Coen as his new head coach. One big reason for optimism for Lawrence is how wellBaker Mayfield played last season in Coen’s system. Mayfield received a 72.8 passing grade in 2023, which is very comparable to Lawrence in recent seasons, and Mayfield’s passing game jumped to 82.4 in 2024. Similarly, his fantasy points per game jumped from 16.7 to 22.5. Lawrence has generally run the ball more often than Mayfield, so there is room for Lawrence’s fantasy production to be even higher.
Lawrence’s time to throw was consistently low during his time under Doug Pederson, but his average depth of target skyrocketed, leading to lower accuracy rates. We should expect his average target depth to decrease considerably. Lawrence’s deep ball accuracy over the last three years was in the bottom quarter of the league, but he finished in the top quarter of the league on short passes. The change in offensive philosophy should be a great asset to his fantasy value.
The Jaguars have largely reworked their receiver room. Jacksonville traded up to the second overall pick forTravis Hunter and signed Dyami Brown to be their field stretcher in free agency. The Jaguars have tried several veteran wide receivers to help Lawrence, but the young duo ofBrian Thomas Jr. and Hunter should be the best pair of Lawrence’s career. Jacksonville moved on from Lawrence’s safety net ofEvan Engram, butBrenton Strange had a very similar receiving grade last season. Strange is another ascending player who should fill his role respectably.
Trevor Lawrence is a high-upside backup option in single quarterback leagues, and he, at best, can become your usual starter and, at worst, be an adequate fill-in during bye weeks. In superflex leagues, he is a somewhat risky second option.