Nope, streaming hasn’t slowed its relentless takeover of the TV viewing universe. According to a recently released Nielsen report, streaming viewing has surpassed linear TV (broadcasting and cable) for the first time. Despite a May boost from the NBA playoffs and to a lesser extent the NHL and global news turmoil, there’s no great silver lining for traditional TV. Those hoping for a “man bites dog” story here are just going to have to keep waiting for the video equivalent of Godot.
Nielsen started The Gauge report in May 2021 to report on broad monthly TV usage across broadcast, cable, streaming and gaming platforms as well a look inside those platforms for specific service performance and trends. The latest Nielsen report comes in a mind-numbingly complex media environment for studios, networks, major media companies and advertisers.
There was certainly an atmosphere of optimism – and a great deal of partying – surrounding the annual Cannes Lions media ad industry gathering last week. But uncertainty abounds about the structural future of the media business, with massive corporate reorganizations under way at Comcast with the Versant cable networks spin-off, a similar separation at Warner Bros. Discovery, and the agonizing drama of the proposed Paramount-Skydance Media merger. And by the way you’ve got the ups and downs of the Trump global trade policy, the Federal Reserve’s wait and see on interest rates, shaky consumer confidence, multiple wars, and a ceaselessly vitriolic political environment in the U.S..
This is no Johnny come lately story. In the last 10 years streaming subscriber growth is up 70% to now reach over 80% of the U.S. population. Streaming usage is up 71% since 2021. Overall streaming TV revenues grew by one estimate from $16 billion in 2015 to $55 billion in 2023, and spending on connected TV advertising alone is estimated to be $33 billion in 2025, growing to nearly $47 billion in 2028. Maybe the most surprising element of The Gauge findings was that it took this long for streaming viewing to actually surpass linear TV.
According to Nielsen’s May report, streaming accounted for a record 44.8% of all TV usage in May. By comparison, broadcasting (20.1%) and cable (24.1%) falling just short at 44.2%. In the last year alone, streaming’s share of TV viewing has increased by 25% while shares for broadcasting and cable have fallen 15% and 10%, respectively. This is the first time the lines of streaming and linear usage have crossed. And with a summer ahead of no Olympics, no playoffs in any major sport, no college football or basketball, and no other major event programming, the trendlines aren’t turning around any time soon (if ever).
In terms of where the overall viewing is going, the dynamic duo of YouTube and Netflix rolls forward. In May YouTube garnered 12.5% of all TV viewing. What Nielsen calls “YouTube Main” alone (excluding YouTube TV) has grown 120% in its viewing size since 2021. Netflix is next at 7.5%.
Disney led all major media companies with 5% share of viewing. In its report release Nielsen’s CEO Karthik Rao praised the traditional media world - all key Nielsen customers - noting that they “have deftly adapted their programming strategies to meet their viewers where they are watching TV – whether it’s on streaming or linear platforms.” But the competition is brutal. If there is a particularly major surprise within the Nielsen numbers it might be that the Roku Channel actually has a slightly higher audience share than those from Paramount, Fox (Tubi), Warner Bros. Discovery (mostly Max) or Comcast’s Peacock. Quick, name a hit show from the Roku Channel. Yeah, I didn’t think so.