Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. I totally understand if you were waiting until the end of the NBA Finals to start paying attention to baseball. Let’s get you caught up on one of the biggest surprises of the season.
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In today’s SI:AM:
🏀 Popovich’s defining legacy 🤦 Another NBA gambling probe 🇺🇸 Big win for USMNT
When the calendar flips to July tomorrow, two teams will be tied for the best record in baseball. One of the two is, of course, the Los Angeles Dodgers. The other is far more unlikely: the Detroit Tigers.
The Tigers were one of the most pleasant surprises of last season, sneaking into the playoffs as the final wild-card team to snap a decade-long postseason drought despite shipping multiple players out of town at the trade deadline. They were 55–63 on Aug. 10 but caught fire over the final seven weeks of the season, going 31–13 to finish at 86–76, their first winning season since 2016.
It was a nice story, but no one really expected it to be the start of a dominant run that put the Tigers on par with the Dodgers. On Opening Day, the Fangraphs playoff odds gave Detroit a 46.6% chance of making the postseason, second-best in the AL Central behind the Minnesota Twins, and projected the Tigers to win roughly 83 games. Detroit has exceeded all expectations this season, though, and picked up right where it left off. Since Aug. 11 of last year, no team in the majors has won more regular-season games than the Tigers. They’re 84–45 over that span. The Dodgers have the next best record at 83–47 and no other team has won more than 77 games.
The guy leading the way for the Tigers is ace Tarik Skubal, the reigning AL Cy Young winner and an early favorite for this year’s award. Skubal was masterful in Detroit’s 3–0 win over the Twins on Sunday night, allowing just one hit in seven innings of work with 13 strikeouts and one walk. He now leads the majors in strikeouts (138), WHIP (0.835), FIP (1.98) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (9.86). Fellow starter Casey Mize, the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft, has also been excellent. He currently has a 2.86 ERA, the best of his career.
But strong pitching isn’t anything new for the Tigers. They ranked eighth in Fangraphs pitching WAR (17.0) last season and third in team ERA (3.61). The real difference this season is that the Tigers have a potent offense to complement their stingy pitching.
Detroit ranks fifth in the majors this season with 4.99 runs scored per game. That’s a significant improvement from last season, when it ranked 20th (4.21 per game), and it’s mostly due to the improved play of the holdovers from last year’s roster. Yes, free-agent acquisition Gleyber Torres has hit very well (a career-best 134 OPS+), but the Tigers have benefited greatly from other guys suddenly finding their rhythm at the plate after struggling mightily last year.
First baseman Spencer Torkelson, the top pick in the 2020 draft, was so terrible over the first three months of last season that he was sent down to the minors for two months. He’s now second on the team with 17 home runs. Utilityman Zach McKinstry has always been a glove-first player who’s below average at the plate, but he suddenly has a very respectable .283/.357/.450 slash line. His .807 OPS this season is markedly better than the .643 he posted in his first five seasons in the bigs.
The most remarkable turnaround, though, has been from veteran Javier Báez. He was one of the worst hitters in the majors last season, posting a dismal .516 OPS in 80 games. He missed the final month of the season with a hip injury, and it was fair to wonder whether his absence was addition by subtraction as the Tigers went on their season-ending hot streak without him. But Báez has been excellent this season, not just at the plate but also in the field. His .783 OPS more than 100 points better than his previous best as a Tiger and is even more impressive when you consider that his offensive renaissance comes at the same time that he’s adjusting to a new defensive position. After spending the first 11 years of his big league career almost exclusively as a middle infielder, Báez spent about a month and a half earlier this season playing mostly in center field before shifting back to shortstop due to the struggles of youngster Trey Sweeney. Báez had been a below-average fielder last season, ranking in the 39th percentile in Outs Above Average, but now that he’s healthy again he ranks in the 81st percentile in that same metric.
The AL Central has been one of the weakest divisions in baseball in recent years, but the Tigers aren’t just good for an AL Central team. They’re a legitimately fantastic team that should be considered a serious World Series contender.
Gregg Popovich stands on the sideline during a Spurs game.
Greg Nelson/Sports Illustrated
… things I saw yesterday:
5. Diamondbacks prospect Slade Caldwell’s nice catch in left.
4. White Sox minor leaguer Evan McKendry’s immaculate inning.
3. White Sox big leaguer Chase Meidroth’s crafty slide to avoid a tag.
2. Toronto Argonauts safety Derek Slywka’s 105-yard fumble return touchdown.
1. Slywka’s 120-yardblocked field goal return. (Yes, 120 yards. The field is huge in the CFL.)