Free agency hasn’t formally started yet, but the Miami Heat’s roster is already almost full.
While NBA teams were allowed to begin negotiating with their own impending free agents on June 23 after the NBA Finals ended, free agents can start negotiating with every team in the league on Monday at 6 p.m. Most free agent signings aren’t eligible to become official until the league’s moratorium is lifted at noon on July 6.
But with guard Davion Mitchell agreeing to a new two-year, $24 million deal on Saturday to return to the Heat, Miami already has 14 players on standard contracts with partially guaranteed or fully guaranteed salaries for next season — just one short of the 15-man regular-season limit for an NBA standard roster — even before league-wide free-agent negotiations are permitted to begin.
The Heat’s current salary-cap breakdown includes these 14 players: Bam Adebayo ($37.1 million), Tyler Herro ($31 million), Andrew Wiggins ($28.2 million), Terry Rozier ($24.9 million of $26.6 million salary currently guaranteed), Mitchell ($11.5 million), Kyle Anderson ($9.2 million), Haywood Highsmith ($5.6 million), Nikola Jovic ($4.4 million), Kel’el Ware ($4.4 million), Kevin Love ($4.2 million), Jaime Jaquez Jr. ($3.9 million), Kasparas Jakucionis ($3.7 million), Pelle Larsson ($978,000 of $2 million salary currently guaranteed) and Keshad Johnson ($2 million).
There are a few things worth noting:
▪ With Mitchell agreeing to his new two-year, $24 million deal with the Heat on Saturday, his salary for this upcoming season can start as low as $11.5 million. But his exact salary for this upcoming season is still being finalized, according to a league source.
▪ Jakucionis has not signed his rookie-scale contract yet because he’s not permitted to. He’s slotted to make about $3.7 million next season as the 20th overall pick in this year’s draft and will be under team control for five seasons. This year’s first-round picks — a group that includes Jakucionis — can begin signing their contracts on Tuesday.
▪ One of the Heat’s three two-way contract slots is currently occupied. Miami agreed to a two-way deal with undrafted Michigan center Vlad Goldin on Thursday shortly after the completion of the NBA Draft.
The expectation is that guard Dru Smith will return to the Heat on a two-way deal, as Miami extended a two-way qualifying offer to him. But Smith, who is set to become a restricted free agent, has yet to sign the qualifying offer.
The Heat’s other two season-ending two-way contract players, guards Josh Christopher and Isaiah Stevens, are set to become unrestricted free agents. Christopher is not eligible for another two-way contract and Stevens is not on the Heat’s summer league roster this year.
Two-way deals do not count against the salary cap, luxury tax or aprons.
▪ Jovic becomes eligible to sign an extension with the Heat on Tuesday. He has one season left on his rookie contract, as he’s due $4.4 million this upcoming season.
When including the full salaries for Rozier, Robinson, Larsson but not including cap holds, the Heat has about $176.3 million in salaries committed to 14 players for next season. This includes the $2.5 million in “unlikely to be earned incentives” that raise Herro’s cap number for this upcoming season to $33.5 million.
With the projected salary cap for the 2025-26 season set at $154.6 million and the projected luxury tax set at $187.9 million, that means the Heat is about $11.6 million below the luxury-tax threshold for this upcoming season. The Heat also finds itself $19.6 million below the punitive first apron of $195.9 million and far from the dreaded second apron of $207.8 million.
The list of players from the Heat’s season-ending roster who are set to become free agents this summer includes Duncan Robinson (unrestricted free agent), Christopher (unrestricted free agent), guard Alec Burks (unrestricted free agent), Smith (restricted free agent) and Stevens (unrestricted free agent). Mitchell was on this list as a restricted free agent before he reached an agreement to return to the Heat prior to Monday’s start of league-wide negotiations.
AVOIDING THE TAX
After finishing as a luxury tax team in each of the last two seasons, the expectation is the Heat will try to find a way to get below the luxury tax threshold this upcoming season. This is important to avoid the onerous repeater tax that’s triggered when a team crosses the luxury tax threshold in four straight seasons or four times during a five-season period.
“I think we’ll have to make an adjustment,” Heat president Pat Riley said in May of dealing with the looming threat of the repeater tax. “You don’t want to be in it four years in a row or four out of five. Otherwise it gets pretty punitive financially.
“I think we can handle that. This is not a priority. But it is in order to manage the financial part of the team and the roster, it’s important. ... I think we’ll probably try to get back out [of the luxury tax] and then get back in to reset it.”
The positive news for the Heat is it’s in position to avoid the luxury tax this upcoming season, as it currently sits about $11.6 million away from the luxury-tax line with only one spot to fill on its standard roster.
THE DUNCAN SITUATION
With a 5 p.m. deadline on Sunday to decide on the early-termination option in his contract for next season, Robinson decided to exercise that option to become an unrestricted free agent this summer, a league source confirmed to the Miami Herald.
Robinson’s other option was to allow Sunday’s deadline to pass without exercising his early-termination option, which would have kept him on the Heat’s books and guaranteed $9.9 million of his $19.9 million salary for next season — a decision that likely would have led to the Heat waiving him or trading him before his full $19.9 million salary became guaranteed on July 8 to get under the luxury-tax line. But Robinson turned down that guaranteed money to hit free agency.
While Robinson could begin talking about a new deal with other teams when free agency opens around the league Monday at 6 p.m., returning to the Heat on a new contract also remains a possibility, according to a league source. Since the Heat has Robinson’s Bird rights, it can exceed the salary cap to re-sign him up to his maximum salary despite holding no salary-cap space.
One option for the Heat to retain Robinson is a contract that would pay him the $9.9 million he would have been guaranteed for next season with additional season of guaranteed money tacked on. For example, a $33 million contract over three years that would give Robinson a significant amount of guaranteed money while also keeping his cap hit for this upcoming season at $9.9 million to keep the Heat under the luxury-tax threshold.
Robinson could also be used in a sign-and-trade deal if he strikes a deal elsewhere and needs the Heat to help facilitate such an agreement. This could, in theory, net the Heat a few assets while also possibly getting Robinson’s salary completely off its books without getting any salary in return by dealing him into another team’s midlevel or trade exception. Such a move involving Robinson is also on the table, according to a league source.
According to longtime NBA reporter Marc Stein, the Detroit Pistons could be among the teams interested in Robinson in free agency. The Pistons are in need of outside shooting in the wake of the news that federal authorities are investigating Pistons impending free agent guard Malik Beasley on allegations of gambling related to NBA games and prop bets.
One thing is for sure, Robinson’s decision to exercise the early-termination option in his contract for next season created a bit of salary-cap flexibility for the Heat this summer.
Robinson, 31, joined the Heat after going undrafted out of Michigan in 2018, becoming the franchise leader for the most career three-pointers made by a Heat player. He averaged 11 points, 2.3 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game while shooting 43.7 percent from the field and 39.3 percent on 6.5 three-point attempts per game for the Heat last regular season.
WHAT HEAT CAN OFFER OUTSIDE FREE AGENTS
If the Heat doesn’t bring back Robinson, it will have enough room under the luxury tax to use the $14.1 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception and/or the $5.1 million bi-annual exception to offer outside free agents without crossing the first apron.
This is important because using either the non-taxpayer midlevel exception or the bi-annual exception would hard cap the Heat at the first apron of $195.9 million.
The issue with using the full $14.1 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception is the Heat is only $11.6 million away from the luxury-tax line, which Miami is expected to try to avoid this upcoming season.
So, the Heat could instead choose to use the $5.7 million taxpayer midlevel exception to add an outside free agent instead of the $14.1 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception and/or the $5.1 million bi-annual exception. The benefit in doing this is that using the $5.7 million taxpayer midlevel exception would keep the Heat out of the luxury tax and only hard cap the Heat at the second apron of $207.8 million.
The Heat also has three trade exceptions at its disposal of $16.1 million (expires on Feb. 6, 2026), $3.1 million (expires on Feb. 6, 2026) and $2.1 million (expires on Dec. 15, 2025). But using a trade exception, which allows a team to acquire a player in a trade even if their salary would otherwise put the team over the salary cap, hard caps teams at the first apron.
Among the outside midlevel exception options in free agency are Bruce Brown, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Ty Jerome, D’Angelo Russell, Brook Lopez, Clint Capela, Luke Kornet, Spencer Dinwiddie, Guerschon Yabusele, Al Horford, Caris LeVert, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, Gary Trent Jr., Russell Westbrook, Malcolm Brogdon, Chris Boucher, Amir Coffey, Luke Kennard, Gary Payton II, Dennis Schroder, Chris Paul, Tyus Jones, Jaxson Hayes, Tre Jones, Monte Morris, Kevin Porter Jr., Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, De’Anthony Melton, Talen-Horton Tucker, Cameron Payne, Kevon Looney, Landry Shamet, Precious Achiuwa, Jake LaRavia, Trey Lyles, Doug McDermott, Larry Nance Jr., Taurean Prince, Paul Reed, Mason Plumlee, Dalano Banton, Garrison Matthews, Nic Batum, Kyle Lowry, Gary Harris, Trendon Watford, Javonte Green, Eric Gordon, Dante Exum, Marvin Bagley, Cam Reddish, Josh Richardson, Alex Len, Torrey Craig, Moe Wagner, Lonnie Walker IV and James Wiseman.
Among the outside restricted free agents who have been linked to the Heat by multiple reports is Golden State Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga.
The Heat has some level of interest in Kuminga, but is currently exploring other potential moves, according to a league source. Any move for Kuminga would almost definitely need to come through a sign-and-trade transaction since Miami doesn’t have cap space and he’s expected to get more than midlevel money, and any team that acquires a player through a sign-and-trade is hard-capped at the first apron of $195.9 million.
RUN IT BACK?
With the Heat’s roster just one short of the regular-season limit of 15 players on standard contracts, the only new face on the current roster is Jakucionis. The two players from last season’s Heat season-ending roster currently not yet committed to return to Miami are Burks and Robinson.
Burks signed a one-year veteran minimum contract with the Heat last summer and again will likely need to settle for a minimum deal to re-sign with the Heat this summer. Burks has made it clear that he hopes to return to the Heat.
“The only thing I’m looking at is coming back here,” Burks said on June 17 of his desire to return to the Heat in free agency. “Everything else is what it is.”
Burks, who turns 34 on July 20, shot a career-best 42.5% from three-point range on 4.2 three-point attempts this past regular season in his first season with the Heat.
But if Robinson returns, there wouldn’t be an open roster spot for Burks unless the Heat makes a trade to free room on its roster.
Either way, the Heat could end up bringing back 14 of the 15 players from last season’s season-ending roster if Burks or Robinson return. Of course, an offseason Heat trade would shake things up.