We’re just over four hours away from the official start of free agency at 5 p.m. Central, though as we’ve already seen, many extensions occur before then, and let’s not kid ourselves: teams are probably already talking to players they’re technically not supposed to. But anyway, let’s look at what’s on the Bucks’ docket as they enter this busy time of year and put together a new roster for 2025–26.
Where does the Bucks’ roster currently stand, salary-wise?
With news of Bobby Portis’ new contract yesterday, the Bucks have approximately $162.3m committed to nine players for 2025–26. While we don’t know officially what his salary for next year will be, a three-year, $44m deal with 8% annual raises (the maximum figure any contract can increase by, year over year) would start at between $13.5 and $13.6m. That’s a slight pay bump—between $100–200k—from the $13.4m Portis would have made had he picked up the final year option from his last deal. A nice bit of business for both parties.
That $162.3m figure doesn’t include new second-round pick Bogoljub Markovič, since we don’t know yet whether or not the Bucks will bring him stateside for the year ahead. If he’s rostered, he will cost $1.3m. But that figure could also decrease pending salary guarantee decisions on three players: AJ Green, Andre Jackson Jr., and Chris Livingston. None of those players have fully guaranteed contracts in 2025–26, so Milwaukee could opt not to keep any of them and owe them no money. Green would be due $2.3m, and the other two would be due $2.2m each. The Bucks must decide whether or not to guarantee Ajax by July 7th, Green by July 8th, and Livingston by July 15th.
Let’s assume for now that all three of those guys are back; I’m a bit doubtful they’ll guarantee Livingston, while the other two are locks to return. Let’s also assume that the Bucks do not waive-and-stretch Pat Connaughton, which would spread the $9.4m he’s owed in the final year of his deal (which he opted into last weekend) over three years of payments at $3.1m each. That means Milwaukee needs to fill at least five more roster spots with standard contracts (two-way deals don’t count) to get to the NBA-mandated 14-player minimum. The NBA will officially set its salary cap for 2025–26 later today, but the latest projections have it around $154.6m, meaning the Bucks are over the cap and can’t use cap space to sign free agents.
So, how can Milwaukee round out its roster? Well, they can re-sign their own free agents (more on them later) without worrying about the salary cap thanks to Bird rights, making trades, or using cap exceptions. Let’s dive into the latter below.
What can the Bucks offer free agents?
Much more than last year! In recent offseasons, the Bucks were limited to minimum contracts because of their proximity to the second apron above the luxury tax. With that apron projected at $207.8m, Milwaukee has not only lots of room before hitting the restrictions associated with that apron, but this also opens up more cap exceptions for them. This summer, GM Jon Horst has the $14.1m full midlevel exception and $5.1m biannual exception available for use on free agents. They can utilize the BAE this year but not next, of course, and the MLE can also be used to acquire a player via trade, not just free agents.
Important caveats from using any of those exceptions to note here. If the Bucks use more than $5.7m of the MLE—also known as the taxpayer portion—or use the MLE to sign any player beyond two seasons regardless of the salary, they will be hard-capped at the first apron above the tax, which is projected at $195.9m. Using the BAE would hard-cap them at the first apron as well. Dipping into any part of the MLE hard-caps them at the second apron.
So while the $162.3m would seem to indicate that Milwaukee has $33.6m beneath the first and $45.5m beneath the second aprons, that’s not actually the case because Kyle Kuzma’s contract includes $2.8m in unlikely benefits. Those must be factored in when calculating a team’s apron number since using any of those exceptions would invoke a hard cap, and if those benefits hit—however unlikely they actually are—a team can’t cross that line if they’re hard-capped. In actuality, the Bucks have $30.9m in space under the first apron and $42.7m under the second.
Who might be available in those salary ranges?
With only a couple of teams (mainly Brooklyn) able to use cap space this summer, nearly all free agents are going to have to take a deal between the minimum and full midlevel if they want to change teams. Some will take the minimum or a smaller exception than they might get elsewhere to join a team that they see as a good fit, just as Gary Trent Jr. did signing a minimum with Milwaukee last summer or when Bobby Portis signed with the BAE in 2020. All player and team option decisions were due yesterday, so here is the list of all current free agents.
Before I pick some candidates, I’ll start off the way I usually do in these types of articles by identifying some team needs Milwaukee should address, in order of importance:
Point-of-attack defense
At least one ball handler in the backcourt
Wing depth, preferably at forward
Frontcourt depth, specifically at center
First off, let’s look at guys who could be available for the midlevel or biannual exceptions, sorted by what I think their earning power will be in free agency. Since the taxpayer portion of the MLE (TPMLE) and biannual exceptions are so close in value, I’ve combined those two (I don’t necessarily think each of those players will earn the entirety $5.7m TPMLE or $5.1 BAE, but at least a portion of it):
MLE & BAE Targets
|Nickeil Alexander-Walker|27|Wing depth|Full MLE|
Of course, some of these guys would be more than depth pieces and may be legit starters on Milwaukee, such as Ayton, Brown, and Alexander-Walker. The Bucks apparently have interest in Ayton, who is being bought out, and while I don’t think he’s a very good fit with Giannis in the frontcourt, he’d raise their ceiling somewhat and improve their interior defense quite a bit. NAW would be a huge get for any team, as would Yabusele, who the Bucks are also interested in. However, with Portis returning, getting Yabu may be less likely.
A Brogdon return would be fun, but potentially very valuable on the court. Depending on who is back between Kevin Porter Jr. and Ryan Rollins, who we’ll discuss in the next section, his ability to run an offense would be very helpful with Damian Lillard out for so much of the season. As we know, Brogdon can play off-ball, so he’d work alongside either KPJ or Rollins if they’re back. While he’s the oldest of the backcourt targets I mentioned, I think he offers the best combination of defense and point guard abilities of any free agent guard. If not him, GPII and Melton (who tore his ACL last November but could be back in time for the regular season) would provide even better point-of-attack D for a similar price, though they’re more limited players overall.
Milwaukee may address their wing needs via trade, as we’ll get into, but I do think there are a few free agents who could slide into a starting role if need be. NAW, Robinson, Finney-Smith, and Brown have each started a fair bit in their careers. DFS opted out of $15.3m for next year, so he probably is seeking the full MLE or at least an eight-figure annual salary on a multi-year deal, and that’s too too rich for my blood, as his once vaunted wing defense has slipped a bit in recent seasons. Amir Coffey may still have some untapped starter upside, but Jake LaRavia is the guy I liked most, as I discussed in my trade exception piece last week.
I have seen some hypothesizing Kornet as a solution at center, which would also technically be a return, as he played one game (three minutes) with Milwaukee as a COVID replacement in early 2022. However, he doesn’t stretch the floor anymore after taking plenty of threes in his first few years in the NBA, and isn’t much quicker than Brook Lopez. I doubt Looney leaves Golden State. Hayes has off-court issues and Capela is too old, so I’d rather address center depth with a minimum and start Portis.
Who are those potential minimum signees? Here are guys I think would be available for the vet minimum, which all teams have access to:
Minimum Targets
|Dalano Banton|26|Ball handler|
Banton is intriguing with his length, and Butler has legit NBA point guard abilities. Morris and Fultz were successful backup (or even starting) PGs in the not-too-distant past. Any of them would make sense as an extra ball handler alongside Rollins and Porter, if they’re both back. But they’d all be in over their heads as starters, as would Simmons, who is still as confounding as ever. On a minimum, though, I’d do it.
Garrison Mathews has some defensive chops, but these wings are unexciting outside of Caleb Houstan and Brandon Boston Jr., who would be intriguing upside plays. In the middle, Bassey has always interested me, as has Reed, though he may not want to play for Doc Rivers again. Thomas Bryant would offer a nice combo of shooting and size, though he’s not a great rim protector. Ideally, any of these bigs are mainly insurance, slotting in behind Portis, Sims, and 10ish minutes of Giannis at the five.
Finally, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Thanasis Antetokounmpo as a possibility at the minimum, given that he’s now a year removed from his Achilles tear. Bringing him back to fill a roster spot is worth it to keep Giannis happy, especially with the rumors continuing to swirl around his future in Milwaukee. We’ve seen how little value the 15th roster spot actually has in recent years, as Livingston has hardly seen the floor or looked impressive.
Who are the Bucks’ free agents?
Now that Portis and Connaughton’s situations are settled, Porter declined his player option, and Rollins got his qualifying offer, here are the Bucks’ free agents, linked with previews of their markets that we published this month:
Check each of them out for more thorough discussions on their potential suitors and next contracts, but we’ll run them down here, grouping them by their Bird rights, which is the primary mechanism teams use to retain their own free agents.
Bird rights: Sims and Lopez
Since neither of them has changed teams via free agency in the past three seasons, Milwaukee has their full Bird rights and can re-sign them to any contract up to their max without using cap space, the MLE, or BAE. Sims will undoubtedly be cheaper, but the question is whether or not he’ll receive another minimum deal or if he’ll get a small raise. Another is whether or not he’ll get more than one year on the contract. Other teams could likely sign him with the TPMLE or BAE.
Lopez is in line for a significant pay cut from last season’s $23m, wherever he winds up. With Portis’ market (like many others’) topping out at the full MLE, I would think Lopez’s is more inexpensive, probably in the $5–10m range, and just for one guaranteed season at his age. A team option for a second season could happen too. The Bucks can offer that without any issue, but other teams would have to use the full MLE to exceed $5.7m on him, hard-capping them at the first apron.
Early Bird rights: Rollins
If Rollins became unrestricted, then the Bucks could offer up to last year’s estimated average annual salary ($13.5m) to retain him without using cap space. But they extended the qualifying offer, so now they have the ability to match any offer sheet a team gives him, but in order to do so, that team would need to use cap space. That offer sheet can’t be for more than the full MLE of $14.1m. If the Bucks were to match whatever that offer ends up being, they could retain him without needing to use their own cap room or by using Early Bird rights. Since that comes really close to the full MLE value, there is technically a very remote possibility the Bucks couldn’t match, or would have to use their full MLE to retain Rollins, but it’s highly unlikely Rollins will get over $10m in first-year salary on a new deal.
Non-Bird rights; Porter, Prince, Trent
Since each of these guys signed a new contract last offseason, the Bucks only have Non-Bird rights on them, even if the player signed that deal with another team and came to the Bucks via trade like Porter. With Non-Bird rights, Milwaukee can only offer them a new contract with a 120% raise on last year’s salary without using cap space or one of the exceptions we’ve been discussing. Since each guy was on a $2.1m minimum deal, though, that raise isn’t very much. For Trent and Porter, they’d be able to earn far more on the open market, perhaps approaching the full MLE and certainly at least $5.7m. So the Bucks would have to use their midlevel or biannual exception to keep them. They can split that $14.1m MLE among multiple players, so they could offer GTJ $9m and KPJ $5m, for example.
I do think the Bucks would like to retain Porter and Trent, given how well they fit and their key roles down the stretch and into the postseason. So I believe they will split their MLE between the two of them (preserving the BAE for a new free agent) with Trent getting the lion’s share, or perhaps give Porter the BAE and use whatever is leftover from Trent to sign a free agent to whatever is left over. They’d want to keep that number close to the $5.7m TPMLE that nearly all teams can offer, so in that scenario, they should give Trent a starting salary next year around $8.4m tops.
Prince would only come back on a minimum, most likely, as that’s probably what he’d get from most teams, even with nearly leading the NBA in three-point percentage last season. Finally, two-way wing Stanley Umude is an unrestricted free agent, as it seems he did not receive a qualifying offer. While he remains eligible for a two-way contract, the Bucks only have Non-Bird rights on him.
What about trades? Can they aggregate players?
Since the Bucks dipped below the second apron at the deadline in February, they can now aggregate players to their heart’s content. So they need to only abide by the NBA’s salary-matching rules, which are as follows for teams over the cap, like Milwaukee:
They can take up to 200% (plus $250k) of their outgoing salary if that’s under $7.5m.
They can take back $7.5m more in salary for any outgoing salary they send out between $7.5m and $29m.
They can take back up to 125% (plus $250k) of their outgoing salary if that’s over $29m.
That second one would allow the Bucks to trade, for example, Kyle Kuzma for Andrew Wiggins, whom they may be sniffing around. Making any of these trades, all of which involve receiving more salary in return than they’re trading away, would hard cap the Bucks at the first apron. Of course, trading away more salary than they’re bringing in doesn’t run afoul of any of these rules, and wouldn’t hard cap them.
They also have a $7.2m trade exception generated by the Khris Middleton-Kyle Kuzma swap from February. I ran through how that works last week, plus how they can use it to add a player without trading away anyone. In addition to the dozen candidates I discussed, I’ll add one more: Phoenix’s Nick Richards. Between the Suns acquiring Mark Williams, Richards’ former backup in Charlotte, and drafting Khaman Maluach, they may no longer have a need for him. With his $5m salary next season, the Bucks can absorb him into that exception, and he probably wouldn’t cost them much in outgoing draft capital, if anything. It could be a straight-up salary dump.
My guess is that Sims, Rollins, and Trent (on the MLE) are coming back on new deals, which we may hear about as soon as tonight. Porter seems less certain to come back, but he may not get a better role as probable starting point guard for $5–6m, which is likely what he’ll get from other suitors as well as the Bucks. I think Prince is definitely moving on, while Lopez would probably only be back if he agreed to something in the $5–8m range from Milwaukee, and he may land more cash elsewhere. Whatever happens, stick with us tonight through the coming days and weeks—we’ll have it for you straight away.