Yet another NFL analyst is taking the under on the Giants win total this year — and this time it’s a former player.
Ex-Giants offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz, now a betting analyst at Fox Sports, wrote last week that he does not believe his former team will reach the 5.5 wins threshold set by Vegas oddsmakers before the season.
Here’s what he wrote via FOX Sports:
“The New York Giants have three ingredients that I often view as reasons why teams go Over their win total,” Schwartz wrote via FOX Sports. “The first, as mentioned above, is injury regression to the mean.
“The second is the result of one-score games. The Giants were 1-8 in those games last season, and the following season that tends to reverse. It’s unlikely a team is 8-1 in one-score games, but they shift from 1-8 to somewhere around 4-5 or 5-4. That’s a huge difference in the overall result of a season.
“The third factor is a quarterback upgrade. I’m not high on Russell Wilson in general, but he is still better than the Giants’ quarterback situation from last season.
“So, the Giants meet most of the criteria I’d use for picking a team to go Over their win total.
“However, they have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, and I’m unsure they’ll come out of October with more than a single win. In fact, they’d be fortunate to be favored in more than one game this season.
“Here’s the first two months of their season: They open at Washington and Dallas, then host the Chiefs and Chargers. After that, a trip to New Orleans, followed by two games against the Eagles, with the Broncos sandwiched in between. They start November with the 49ers, then face the Bears, Packers and Lions — oh my! They’ll be an underdog in every game, and possibly a pick in New Orleans.
“So that poor record in close games may not even matter this season, as they could find themselves down by double digits late in games. When they start slow, the coaching staff may quickly turn toJaxson Dart, who isn’t ready to be a starter yet. New York’s season is going to spiral out of control quickly. So I’m going with the Giants Under 5.5 wins.”
Schwartz, a six-year pro, played two seasons with the Giants in 2014 and 2015.
You can’t really knock him for his prediction considering how dismal things have been for the Giants of late. Big Blue went 3-14 last season and has logged a worse record in each season since Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll took over.
Thank you for relying on us to provide the journalism you can trust. Please consider supporting us with a subscription.
Ryan Novozinsky may be reached at rnovozinsky@njadvancemedia.com. You can follow him on X@ryannovoNFL