CLEVELAND, Ohio — Expectations are not high for the 2025 Cleveland Browns.
Just look at the betting markets. DraftKings will give you plus-180 odds if you think they’re going to win seven or more games. FanDuel will give you plus-130 odds if you think they’ll win six or more games.
If you don’t speak gambling, it means those sites are fairly confident they’re not going to lose money to people who think the Browns will contend for the playoffs this season — or even flirt with .500.
Why wouldn’t they be? They didn’t win three games last season by accident. Their all-in roster imploded under the weight of a massive failed quarterback move and now they need to dig their way out of it.
Just look at the competition to replace Deshaun Watson. It’s more likely a battle between four backup quarterbacks than anyone who will wind up a franchise signal-caller.
The NFL is a crazy league, though. Games can often come down to the bounce of a ball or a kick that sails a few inches the wrong direction. Even the legacies of some of the greatest players ever could look dramatically different if one or two plays had gone a different direction.
Besides, there is still talent on this roster. The depth is a real concern and there are massive holes that couldn’t be filled in one offseason, but it’s not hopeless.
In other words, I’m saying there’s a chance for respectability at least and this is how the Browns can make it work.
The defense dominates
Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins, December 29, 2024
The Browns will need to rely on their defense this season.Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com
We’re spending most of our time on the quarterbacks but any success this season will be mostly about the defense. If the Browns surprise the NFL world and make a push for the playoffs, it will be because their defense looks more like the 2023 version than the 2024 version.
In reality, the 2024 version likely wasn’t as bad as the numbers showed. They really had two things working against them: turnovers and almost no complementary football.
The lack of playmaking was stunning. Only two players in the secondary, Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome II, had interceptions last season — and Newsome’s came off a deflection by Ward.
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was the only Browns linebacker who forced a turnover last season.
Will it get better in 2025? Many of the same players are back — and they will be without Owusu-Koramoah — so the Browns, in part, are betting simply on turnover luck going their way a little more often.
They are also hoping some young players like Alex Wright, Isaiah McGuire and Carson Schwesinger, to name a few, will take advantage of opportunities there for the taking.
The defense also wasn’t helped last year by an anemic offense. The Browns gave the ball away 34 times; tied with Tennessee for the most in the league. They had the worst third-down percentage, averaged the sixth-fewest first downs per game and no one punted the ball more.
The defense was getting no help and was put in bad positions all season long.
If they can make more game-changing plays and if the offense can help them even a little more, things should be better for Jim Schwartz’s unit in 2025.
Control the ball
Cleveland Browns mandatory minicamp, June 11, 2025
The run game is back for the Browns in 2025.Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com
Speaking of which, the Browns controlling possession would certainly help. Myles Garrett wouldn’t mind.
“Putting a great defense out there, having a time of possession, running-game offense,” Garrett said in December when he first floated the idea of wanting out of Cleveland and what he envisioned a successful team could look like.
Time of possession isn’t everything — and there’s probably some causation vs. correlation arguments to be made regarding it — but it’s worth noting the Browns were first in time of possession in 2023, fourth in 2022, tied for eighth in 2021 and 11th in 2020. When we look at common threads in a Kevin Stefanski offense, possessing the ball is part of it.
The Browns are promising a return to a rugged run game behind a veteran offensive line with two young running backs in rookies Quinshon Judkins and Dylan Sampson.
Their choice at quarterback, if we exclude the two rookies for the first part of the season, presents an interesting dilemma: Kenny Pickett, who will minimize turnovers but won’t create much offense on his own, or Joe Flacco, who will create explosive plays with his arm but will also turn the ball over at a high rate.
Are Flacco’s turnovers worth his ability to hit one or two deep throws to Jerry Jeudy that could be the difference in the game? Or is following the model in Pickett’s rookie year with the Steelers — hang around and win ugly — the best option?
It’s not just running, after all, it’s about moving the chains however they can move them. This isn’t 1985, after all. If the Browns can find the right balance, they can control possession and score just enough to win.
Let’s get physical
Scenes from Cleveland Browns mandatory minicamp Wednesday, June 11, 2025 in Berea
The Browns are expecting a more physical, competitive training camp in 2025.Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com
Stefanski has promised a more physical, competitive training camp. This is where the Browns could steal a few wins early in the season.
The NFL likes to tell you every game matters, but in a 17-game season with seven playoff teams in each conference, smart teams understand the most important thing is hitting late November on a surge and carrying it through to the playoffs.
September, for some teams, still has some preseason carryover, with jobs still being determined and identities being sought out.
If the Browns are ready to attack September with a physical run game and defense established in a training camp tougher than any Stefanski has run in his time here, it’s not unthinkable they could catch some teams who aren’t ready for it, especially because they’ll still be healthy in September.
Over the course of the season, the roster’s lack of depth will get exposed and it’s why, even if they do get out to a surprising start, a late swoon is likely, but a healthy team that brings the physicality early could sneak out of the first month of the season treading water and buying a little more time for fans who aren’t ready to start digging into the 2026 draft.
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