Saquon Barkley broke long touchdown runs at a historic rate: By any definition of “long touchdown run,” Barkley accomplished this at one of the best rates, if not the best rate, in NFL history. This is something that will likely regress this season.
CanJonathan Taylor return to 2021 form?: His efficiency has swiftly declined since his historic 2021 season, but he’s also dealt with injuries. It’s possible a healthy Taylor can return to form, but it’s also possible his efficiency will continue to decline.
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Estimated reading time: 17 minutes
Many fantasy managers fall into the trap of assuming a quality veteran player will repeat their fantasy production the following season. However, there can be many reasons for a player to decline, such as changes to the offense or if they had some unstable statistics last season but are expected to regress to the mean. The five running backs mentioned in this article are being drafted without sufficient consideration for potential declines in their performance, so they should be avoided at their current cost.
The average draft position listed is from a consensus between ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! for where the player is picked on average in a 12-team, redraft league.
Last updated: Tuesday, July 1
Saquon Barkley,Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 1.02)
Barkley landed with the Philadelphia Eagles in free agency in 2024. The good news was that his offensive line was a lot better. The bad news was thatJalen Hurts would take the touchdowns from the one-yard line, and there wasn’t as much potential for receiving production.
That all ended up being true. The Eagles had the fourth-highest team rushing grade. When the Eagles were on the one-yard line, Hurts earned 15 carries for 11 touchdowns while Barkley had three carries for no scores. He ran fewer routes and earned a much lower target rate. He was among the league leaders in carries per game, and volume is king in fantasy football, but his per-play metrics suggest a good, but not great, running back.
This should have all added up to a low RB1 performance, but Barkley scored 60-plus-yard touchdown runs at a rate that has never been seen in the history of the NFL. Barkley accomplished this seven times, including the playoffs, which is the most in NFL history in a season. There is a tie for second between Adrian Peterson in 2012 and Jim Brown in 1963, four each. Barkley has 11 60-plus-yard touchdown runs in his NFL career, which ranks second behind Adrian Peterson’s 15 and ahead ofDerrick Henry (nine), Barry Sanders (eight) andChris Johnson (eight). He had four such runs earlier in his career, so his 11 all-time ranks second to Peterson’s 15.
Barkley similarly led the league in touchdowns of 15 or more yards in the regular season (eight). If you removed all of the 15-plus-yard touchdown runs from not just Barkley but all running backs, he would have finished seventh in fantasy points per game instead of first. Long touchdowns aren’t very consistent from one year to the next, and those 60-plus-yard touchdowns, in particular, should regress substantially. He is still in a position to break more long runs than any other running back, but it’s implausible he can continue at the same rate.
Barkley’s primary competition for touches, from a fantasy perspective, isJalen Hurts. When the Eagles needed one yard for a first down or score, they ran 43 times with their quarterbacks and 21 times with their running backs. This is almost entirely due to the tush push's success. The vote to ban the tush push this offseason was unsuccessful, so the Eagles are likely to continue using this play at the one-yard line. Barkley’s touchdown total should regress on the long touchdowns, without the short touchdown total increasing.
A large part of Barkley’s success has been the offensive line, which ranked fourth in team run-blocking grade last season. The tackles are largely to thank, as Jordan Mailata had one of the best run-blocking seasons in PFF’s history last year at left tackle. Lane Johnson has played for over a decade and just posted his highest overall grade at 34 years old. Left guard Landon Dickerson made substantial progress in his fourth season, while Cam Jurgens wasn’t Jason Kelce but still graded fine in run blocking in his first season at center.
The big question is at right guard, where Mekhi Becton left in free agency. Tyler Steen is the favorite to take over at right guard, but there should be competition from Kenyon Green or Matt Pryor. Whoever wins the right guard job probably won’t play as well as Becton, and there could be some regression from the tackles, but this should remain among the best lines in the league.
Barkley is a talented running back who dominated fantasy leagues last season with an unsustainably high rate of long touchdown runs. He will continue to be a great back who sees elite volume, which alone makes him a top-10 running back, but it will be hard to remain elite due to likely touchdown regression.
Jonathan Taylor,Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 2.06)
Jonathan Taylor was the 41st overall selection of the 2020 NFL Draft. While he was the third running back off the board, many dynasty managers made the right decision in picking him over Clyde Edwards-Helaire andD’Andre Swift. The Colts eased him into action as a rookie with a 50% snap rate. In 2021, he was the clear best running back in the league. He led the league in rushing attempts, yards and touchdowns. He earned the most fantasy points and points per game regardless of league format, an Associated Press first-team All-Pro and was PFF’s highest graded running back. No other running back has ever accomplished all of that in the same season.
Taylor hasn’t been nearly as effective over the last three seasons. Taylor’s 73.7 rushing grade during the previous three years is tied for 43rd-best among the 49 running backs with 300 or more carries. The running backs tied with him or lower include Ezekiel Elliott, Jamaal Williams and Dalvin Cook, who are unsigned free agents, and Zack Moss,Rachaad White andJavonte Williams. The other three running backs below a 76.0 rushing grade are also expected to be backups this year.
Part of Taylor’s problem has been injury, where he’s missed at least three games in the last three years. He’s been listed with an ankle injury on the injury report in November 2020, October 2022, November 2022, October 2023 and October 2024. Throughout his career, he’s also been listed with a thumb, ankle, toe, ribs, knee and shoulder injuries.
Taylor’s role was larger last season than in other recent seasons, but the Colts brought in new backups for this season. They spent a fifth-round pick onD.J. Giddens and veteran free agent Khalil Herbert. All three running backs are best suited for early-down work rather than on third downs. While Taylor’s work in short-yardage situations and at the goal line should be safe, there is a solid chance that one of these running backs can cut into Taylor’s playing time on early downs.
An 88.7% snap rate is exceptionally high for a modern-day running back with an extensive injury history. The Colts appear fully committed to Taylor being the feature back, but he may lose some volume, which could also help his efficiency. Given Taylor’s injury history, it’s also possible one of these backs starts multiple games this season.
Taylor has mixed high volume with inefficient play. Usually, this is the recipe for a big decline in fantasy production. However, Taylor has a high rate of big plays, the trust of the coaching staff, and an excellent 2021 season, so there is always a chance he returns to that form. Taylor is a fine top-15 fantasy option, with a decent chance to finish in the top 10, and an outside chance to return to the league’s elite.
Breece Hall,New York Jets (ADP: 3.12)
Breece Hall’s 2024 season was expected to be a step forward with another year removed from his 2022 injury, but it was largely similar to 2023. He ran the ball the same amount per game for the same number of total touchdowns. WithAaron Rodgers at quarterback, Hall was less involved in the passing game than in previous seasons. He also fumbled six times total after fumbling three times over the previous two seasons combined.
Despite some up-and-down play, at times, his career 3.4 yards after contact per attempt are the best among running backs over the last three seasons. He has one of the more extreme splits in how well he plays during perfectly blocked runs compared to not, going from 8.6 yards per attempt to 3.0. The problem is that he’s seen fewer perfectly blocked runs than most backs. He also has a very extreme split, playing better on gap runs than zone, but he’s run more zone plays
For most of last season, Hall played around 75% of New York's offensive snaps. He played notably more than last season, but rookiesBraelon Allen and Isaiah Davis received significant attention for how well they were playing. Hall was the lowest-graded running back of the three.
Hall’s role noticeably transformed with them on the roster instead of Dalvin Cook or Michael Carter. Hall played much more in clear passing situations and less in short-yardage situations. Allen is one of the bigger backs in the NFL, and Davis is bigger than Hall, so we can expect the limited short-yardage snaps to continue. This helped Hall run 24 routes per game, the most among running backs last season.
If the Jets retained their same coaching staff from last year, we could expect a similar split. However, New York has a new coaching staff. Josina Anderson reported before the draft that Hall was potentially available via trade. However, that might have been contingent on the Jets drafting a running back. Head coach Aaron Glenn said, “We have three running backs on this team that we’re going to utilize as much as possible,” but plenty of coaches hype up their third running back at this point of the season and end up not using them. Hall is also in the last season of his rookie contract, which also complicates matters.
Hall would ordinarily be a clear top-10 running back option in fantasy drafts, but the uncertainty around how role and how much the coaching staff likes him compared to the other young running backs leads to the risk of Hall being a bust in fantasy leagues in a major way. Whoever drafts Hall could get a steal or a bust, and there isn’t much room in between compared to most players.
The Lions' new head coach, Aaron Glenn, brought former Detroit Lions passing game coordinator Tanner Engstrand with him to New York. It’s his first year leading an offense, so we don't know how far off his offense will be from Ben Johnson’s. It is very easy to pictureBraelon Allen taking theDavid Montgomery role in this offense while Hall takes theJahmyr Gibbs role. This wouldn’t be as good as a feature role in the offense, but Gibbs has been an elite option. The Jets will need to have a good offense for Hall to have any chance of matching Gibbs' value.
The Jets had the eighth-highest rate of using zone runs last season, while the Lions were the sixth-highest. Given that Hall plays better in gap schemes compared to zone, this could help explain why the Jets could be open to trading Hall. Most of the potential teams that need a running back are also expected to use a high zone run rate, but the Washington Commanders are the notable exception. Both Allen and Davis played better on zone runs last season.
A big difference in this offense compared to the Lions is that New York hasJustin Fields at quarterback. He runs much more thanJared Goff and will also take more sacks. Generally, rushing quarterbacks tend to hurt the value of receiving running backs because they will scramble rather than check down, at times. This means Hall’s receiving production is unlikely to bounce back with Fields, regardless of what his playing time is like.
Hall’s past rushing and receiving production make him a potential top-five fantasy running back. Still, it’s very difficult to predict exactly what his role will be in this new Jets offense, and there is a possibility that he’s primarily a receiving back while the other two younger players take a lot of the carries. This puts Hall outside of the top 10 running backs by ADP and makes him one of the biggest high-risk, high-reward options among the running backs from 11-20 by ADP.
Joe Mixon,Houston Texans (ADP: 4.04)
Joe Mixon was a second-round pick by the Cincinnati Bengals in 2017. From 2018-2023, he consistently had an RB7-RB11 finish, outside of one season. He averaged anywhere from 15-20 carries per game. As his career progressed, he would get more involved in the passing game, and the offense improved, leading to more touchdowns.
He was a good running back with a lot of volume. His PFF rushing grade generally fluctuated from 74.0-82.0 each season and 71.0-81.0 overall. He’s been good enough to remain a starter, but never good enough to be among the NFL’s elite fantasy talents. The Houston Texans traded for Mixon last season, and it was more of the same. Mixon was tied for eighth in fantasy points per game, finishing with 17.5 carries per game and a relatively average level of play.
Mixon’s role was largely similar in Houston as it was in Cincinnati, except for the two-minute drill. While Mixon’s target rate was higher in Houston than in Cincinnati, his routes run per game notably decreased due to the lack of two-minute drill snaps. Mixon’s carries per game were up despite having a similar role because he received the ball much more often when he was on the field. The Bengals haveJoe Burrow andJa’Marr Chase andTee Higgins.C.J. Stroud isn’t currently on Burrow’s level, and the Houston Texans had several injuries at wide receiver, so they had to rely more heavily on Mixon.
Mixon will also likely see his playing time drop, leading to fewer carries. Mixon will be 29 years old by the start of the season, and his 1,816 career rushing attempts rank second-most behindDerrick Henry among active running backs.
The Texans added fellow former AFC North veteranNick Chubb after the draft. Chubb was a better runner than Mixon in his prime, but he suffered significant injuries and wasn’t his usual self last season. Chubb will likely cut into Mixon’s playing time at least a little bit and have an outside shot of becoming the starter if he can return to his usual form. The Chubb addition makes drafting Mixon a bit more risky, but he could remain an RB2 even with a slight decrease in volume.
Mixon has consistently been a low-end RB1, but that will likely change. The combination of his age, more receiving options, the Chubb addition and the Laremy Tunsil loss could move him down multiple spots. He should be viewed as a low-end RB2, with the upside of remaining a low-end RB1, but also the risk of getting benched in favor of Chubb.
David Montgomery,Detroit Lions (ADP: 5.04)
David Montgomery spent the first four seasons of his career with the Chicago Bears. He was sometimes a feature back, leading him to the fourth-most fantasy points in 2020. Khalil Herbert emerged as a legitimate threat, taking some of Montgomery’s carries and playing time. He was still a borderline fantasy starter during his final two years in Chicago but made them more comfortable moving on from Montgomery in free agency.
Detroit just had Jamaal Williams run 262 times for 1,066 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2022, but Detroit decided to upgrade with Montgomery over Williams. That offseason, the Lions also addedJahmyr Gibbs in the draft and tradedD’Andre Swift. This left Montgomery sharing the backfield with Gibbs. It’s rare for a team to have two running backs who can both be fantasy-relevant on a weekly basis, but the Lions have made it work.
Montgomery averaged 15 carries per game with a high first-down conversion rate. He rarely broke long runs and averaged just over one reception per game, but he scored 13 touchdowns. While he had a three-touchdown game, those scores were generally spread out, as he didn't score in only three games. In 2024, it was a lot of the same for Montgomery. His first down rate remained high, and he scored in 10 of 14 games. He lost a small amount of carries per game, which impacted his rushing yards, but he made up for it by getting much more involved in the passing game, as he did throughout his career with the Bears.
Former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson earned the head coach job at the Chicago Bears. Scottie Montgomery had been working with the running backs, but now, he’s working with the wide receivers. John Morton is the Lions' new offensive coordinator, and he hasn’t worked with Morton before. Tashard Choice was added as the running back coach after a seven-year NFL career and working as a running back coach in college, most recently at Texas.
In recent seasons, Morton has been part of teams using a committee in the backfield, but he also has experience with feature backs, most notablyJosh Jacobs. However, in his one season as an NFL offensive coordinator with the New York Jets in 2017, he had a three-back committee with Bilal Powell, Matt Forte and Elijah McGuire. Morton has stressed the importance of explosive plays, which is something Gibbs is exceptional at. We should expect how snaps and touches are distributed to change under Morton’s offense. Most of the potential changes should be positive instead of negative for Gibbs, and negative instead of positive for Montgomery.
In Morton’s one season with New York, Powell took a higher rate of snaps at the goal line than in normal situations, despite being the lightest of their three running backs. In his stints with the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos, those teams had their lead running back take high rates of goal-line snaps, even though both teams had larger running backs on the bench. This could mean some major touchdown regression for Montgomery.
Montgomery has benefited from having an excellent offensive line in front of him, but the line might take a step back this season. Penei Sewell is the top run-blocking right tackle, and left tackle Taylor Decker has nearly a decade of history of great pass blocking and has been consistently good as a run blocker. However, the Lions lost center Frank Ragnow to retirement and Kevin Zeitler in free agency.
Graham Glasgow is the one returning interior starter, but he had a down year and will be 33 years old by the start of the season. Christian Mahogany looked excellent on a 63 run-block sample as a rookie, including a 91.9 run-blocking grade against the Washington Commanders in the playoffs as a starter. The Lions spent a second-round pick on Tate Ratledge, who was a better pass protector than run blocker. These changes will likely result in less rushing efficiency for Montgomery. If the team needs to create space for their running backs rather than allow on the line to make room, that could lead the team to lean more on Gibbs and less on Montgomery. If Ben Johnson remained the offensive coordinator with the Detroit Lions, Montgomery would be a relatively safe option to set in your fantasy starting lineup each week, even if his upside is limited. However, with John Morton, there is a risk that he will mostly become a handcuff option toJahmyr Gibbs.