Quarterback Caleb Williams and Coach Ben Johnson have the Bears looking to improve in 2025. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
The worst-to-first transformation has become an NFL staple. Nearly every season, at least one team travels from a division basement to the penthouse. It didn’t happen last year, although the Washington Commanders came close, winning 12 games and contending for the NFC East title before finishing two games back of the Philadelphia Eagles. That made 2024 just the third season since the NFL’s 2002 expansion without a team that went from worst to first.
There is an obvious candidate to make the leap this year: the San Francisco 49ers, who finished fourth in the NFC West after horrendous luck last season, especially when it came to injuries.
Star quarterback Brock Purdy injured his throwing shoulder at midseason, and backup Brandon Allen played through a broken finger. The backfield was decimated. Christian McCaffrey missed most of the season with Achilles’ and knee issues, and Elijah Mitchell never played a snap. Top wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk tore his ACL and MCL, and tight end George Kittle battled a nagging hamstring problem. The offensive line lost multiple starters, including stalwart Trent Williams.
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The defense was equally ravaged. Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and Talanoa Hufanga played through serious injuries, and Dre Greenlaw missed nearly the entire season. According to research by analyst Aaron Schatz, the 49ers led the NFL in adjusted games lost, a proprietary metric that quantifies the impact of injuries by accounting for missed games and diminished performance, weighted by the player’s role.
With many of those injuries seemingly resolved, the 49ers could rebound. Pro Football Focus ranks the 49ers’ roster as the 14th best in the NFL, hardly typical for a last-place team. With elite coverage units, promising talent in the trenches and the possibility of McCaffrey’s resurgence, San Francisco’s roster is built not just to bounce back but to contend in the loaded NFC. My power ratings, based on the betting win totals and point spreads released by sportsbooks for each game this season, give the 49ers a 36 percent chance to win their division.
An NFC West title for the 49ers, in other words, would hardly qualify as a surprise. Here are the other, not-so-obvious contenders, listed in order of likelihood to go from worst to first.
Elite line investments, the hiring of an offensive mastermind as head coach, dynamic playmakers and defensive upgrades are the arguments in favor of the Bears improving enough to snag the NFC North title.
The front office turbo‑charged Chicago’s offensive line, spending nearly $130 million in free agency on elite protectors Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson. The offseason was solid enough that Pro Football Focus highlighted Chicago’s offensive tackles as the team’s biggest strength heading into 2025. The unit needed it after allowing an adjusted sack rate of 11 percent last season, the worst in the league, per analytical site For The Numbers. The hope is that new coach Ben Johnson, the offensive coordinator for Detroit’s top‑scoring offense in 2024, will give second-year quarterback Caleb Williams a proven system to go with better protection.
The receiving corps, featuring DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, second-round pick Luther Burden III and tight end Cole Kmet, also appears strong. The defense is led by cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson (who had the highest PFF coverage grade last season) and Tyrique Stevenson (tied for seventh in pass breakups), anchoring a secondary praised for its depth.
One obvious obstacle: The division’s three other teams all won at least 11 games and made the playoffs last season.
The Patriots’ aggressive approach to free agency brought in cornerback Carlton Davis III, edge rusher Harold Landry III, defensive lineman Milton Williams, linebacker Robert Spillane and wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Pro Football Focus ranked Davis 21st among cornerbacks before a fractured jaw ended his season in Week 15. Landry recorded nine sacks for Tennessee last season and had double-digit sacks in 2021 and 2023. Williams helped bolster the interior defense of the Super Bowl champion Eagles, and Spillane was a top-five linebacker in snaps played and tackles for the Las Vegas Raiders. Diggs, who spent last season with the Houston Texans, was ranked 21st among wideouts before a season-ending ACL tear.
Pro Football Focus awarded the Patriots — who hired Mike Vrabel as their coach and Josh McDaniels as their offensive coordinator — an A+ for their offseason moves, noting “[t]his is an easy A grade, and one that was bumped to an A+ for the moves in the front office and coaching staff.”
In addition, the Patriots landed one of the NFL’s easiest 2025 schedules. Nine of their games are against teams with a betting win total that would put them below .500, and the Patriots are favored to win 11 of their matchups. New England wasn’t favored in any games last season.
Under second-year coach Brian Callahan and new general manager Mike Borgonzi, the Titans addressed their biggest need, the offensive line. They gave a four-year, $82 million deal to former Pittsburgh Steelers left tackle Dan Moore Jr. and acquired Detroit Lions guard Kevin Zeitler (the third-best guard of 2024, per PFF), reshaping a unit that allowed 52 sacks in 2024. Pairing this revamped line with rookie quarterback Cam Ward, the No. 1 draft pick, could give the Titans a real shot at an offensive turnaround.
Ward’s unorthodox rise from zero-star recruit to top NFL prospect is reflected in his bold but inconsistent play. His aggressive mentality and willingness to challenge tight windows often came at the cost of efficiency and ball placement during his college career. However, he has excelled at throws at or beyond the sticks, per Pro Football Focus, while his performance remained steady across different offensive approaches, making him less scheme-dependent than his peers. That should help a team that scored seven fewer points per game than expected last season based on the down, distance and field position of each play, per TruMedia. Only Las Vegas and Cleveland were worse.
Plus, the AFC South isn’t exactly stocked with powerhouses. The Houston Texans are the only team expected to be even average, per my power ratings based on point spreads released in May, giving the Titans a shot at pulling off a surprise.
They bolstered their roster with free agents such as elite safety Justin Reid (the 11th-best safety of 2024, per PFF). Wideout Brandin Cooks (named by Pro Football Focus as the Saints free agent signing with the most upside) will join running back Alvin Kamara, wide receiver Chris Olave and reliable tight end Juwan Johnson, giving whoever takes over for the retired Derek Carr at quarterback some reliable weapons. But who will that be? Rookie Tyler Shough earned an 87.7 PFF passing grade at Louisville last season, tied for the fifth best among qualified quarterbacks in 2024, but he’s no sure thing.
Meanwhile, the hiring of former Los Angeles Chargers coach Brandon Staley as defensive coordinator could reinvigorate one of the NFL’s worst defenses.
Under new coach Pete Carroll and new general manager John Spytek, the Raiders are attempting to remake themselves on and off the field. They locked in edge rusher Maxx Crosby via a record-setting $106.5 million extension, keeping the four-time Pro Bowl pick in silver and black for the foreseeable future. Last season, Crosby led the team in sacks (7.5), tackles for loss (17), quarterback hits (20) and total quarterback pressures despite being placed on injured reserve in mid-December.
The focus, however, will be on quarterback Geno Smith. Acquired from the Seattle Seahawks via trade, Smith completed a career-best 70.4 percent of his passes for 4,320 yards, 21 touchdowns and 15 interceptions last season. He finished 21st in ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating but seventh per Pro Football Focus, suggesting his process and decision-making might not be fully reflected in his counting stats.
If you believe football games are won in the trenches, you might love what the Giants did this offseason. They signed former Dallas Cowboys pass rusher Chauncey Golston while restructuring the contract of Brian Burns, who had a career-high 71 tackles to go with 8.5 sacks in 2024. The Giants also brought in No. 3 pick Abdul Carter, a pass rusher out of Penn State. Dalton Wasserman of Pro Football Focus called this a “potentially elite pass rush.”
Offensively, quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston offer short-term stability, while rookie Jaxson Dart provides upside behind them. Pro Bowl wide receiver Malik Nabers (1,204 yards on 109 receptions) and breakout running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. (192 carries for 839 yards and five touchdowns) give the Giants real playmakers on offense. But the Commanders and Eagles played in the NFC championship game last year, and the Cowboys won 12 games in three consecutive years before falling apart last season.
The Browns finished fifth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate last season (46 percent). They doubled down on their defensive identity by signing defensive tackle Maliek Collins for two years and $20 million and extending 2023 defensive player of the year Myles Garrett on a four‑year, $160 million deal. Collins tied his career high with five sacks last season for the 49ers, while Garrett was the top-rated edge rusher of 2024, according to Pro Football Focus.
Cleveland invested draft capital in athletic running backs Quinshon Judkins (a second-round pick out of Ohio State) and Dylan Sampson (a fourth-round pick from Tennessee), potentially boosting a ground game that was underutilized and ineffective last year. In non-garbage-time situations, the Brown ran the ball 36 percent of the time, per TruMedia. Only the Cincinnati Bengals ran it less often. The league average was 43 percent.