The Cleveland Browns will return to Berea in three weeks to begin training camp, preparing for the 2025 regular season. The national outlook for the Browns in 2025 is not particularly optimistic, with most sportsbooks predicting their win total to be between 4.5 and 5.5 games. However, some believe the team has enough veteran talent to be competitive this season. Albert Breer has noted that the Browns still have the core group of players who helped them secure 11 wins two years ago and suggests they should be expected to contend for a playoff spot in December.
Every season, Mike Clay of ESPN releases his statistical projections for all 32 NFL teams. His projections for the 2025 Cleveland Browns align closely with the national perspective, with Clay predicting that the Browns will win only 4.6 games, ranking them as the second-worst team in the league at 31st overall. However, a closer examination of Clay's projections raises questions about how he reached these figures. There are specific aspects of his analysis where I have disagreements with his statistical breakdown. Notably, the starting quarterbacks and the number of games each plays are areas of uncertainty, and I believe that excluding Joe Flacco from the list entirely will ultimately prove to be incorrect.
The Browns' return to Kevin Stefanski's wide zone running attack, along with some personnel changes — including the addition of two talented running backs—will play a crucial role to their success in 2025. I anticipate that the run game will produce numbers even larger than those projected by Clay.
It is reasonable to question the Browns' wide receiver room at this stage since it consists of mostly unproven players. While the uncertainty could lead to positive outcomes, we should also consider the impact that rookie tight end Harold Fannin Jr. may have on their passing attack.
Perhaps the most significant flaw in Clay's projections is his ranking of the Browns' defense. He has them finishing 28th in tackles, 27th in sacks, and 32nd in interceptions. In a separate section where he grades each position group, he lists the Browns' defense as 18th overall by grade. This statistical inconsistency may stem from a defense trying to compensate for a struggling offense or a team that is frequently playing from behind.
The Browns' defense features real talent at all three levels and has the potential to return to the top-five form it displayed two years ago. Even if they don't reach that level, ranking 18th and second-to-last in statistical categories seems to undervalue the talent and capability the Browns have on defense.
In this edition of "Things I Think I Know About The Browns," we explore how Clay's projections at quarterback, running back, pass catcher, and defense may differ significantly from the actual outcomes.