“He’s just a rookie.”
“Have patience.”
“He needs time to develop.”
“You know, players can actually improve.”
When a player has an underwhelming rookie season, these are popular refrains along with other similar statements.
These statements frequently do have merit. There are players who don’t do much in year one but ultimately develop into quality NFL contributors.
Still, most players who don’t produce much in year one never amount to anything on the professional level.
I think these discussions frequently neglect two essential questions.
1. What should we reasonably expect from a rookie?
2. How much improvement can we reasonably expect from a player after his first season.
There’s much more nuance in answering the first question than people realize. A player selected after round two probably isn’t going to contribute a ton, but there is a difference between occasional flashes where he looks the part and a season lacking any substantive contribution.
The second is a bit easier to understand. Sure, players can improve. Still, the history of the league is littered with players who never appreciably got better upon entering the NFL.
Even among those who do, it’s difficult to expect an infinite amount of improvement. A rookie who is a plus starter has a reasonable chance of developing into a star. An average starter could become a plus starter. A decent rookie role player could become a starter. Somebody who occasionally shows a pulse could reasonably one day turn into a role player.
But what’s the realistic expectation for a rookie who showed zero?
Of course you have the occasional guy who shows massive improvement. Still, I don’t think it’s smart for a team to base its bets on “Anything is theoretically possible.”
This brings me to Malachi Corley. The Jets hyped up the third round pick between selecting him in the 2024 NFL Draft and the start of the season. Then once the season came, the Jets got virtually nothing. Corley caught only 3 passes all season. His only memorable moment came in the Halloween Night win over the Houston Texans. The Jets drew up an end around for Corley in the second quarter. The play was perfectly executed and blocked, setting up Corley for what should have been an easy walk in touchdown. Instead Corley celebrated prematurely, dropping the ball at the 1 yard line. It rolled out of the end zone for a touchback.
Of course even great players sometimes make really dumb blooper reel plays, but that particular moment was symbolic of a lost rookie season.
Was Corley’s lack of impact really a red flag, though? We usually don’t see teams count much on third round receivers in year one.
I decided to take a look at how rookies selected in the same range as Corley in the Draft typically produce. Including Corley, there were 37 wide receivers selected between picks 55 and 75 (ten picks before to ten picks after Corley’s spot at 65) between 2011 and 2024.
What were the results?
Well, they weren’t promising for Corley. His 3 receptions was the third lowest output. Only Cody Latimer and Tutu Atwell had less. So Corley’s struggles go beyond, “He’s just a rookie,” and, “You can’t expect much.” It was pretty reasonable to expect more from him.
Perhaps the more important matter is determining how much improvement is likely going forward. How much is rookie success or failure a sign of future success or failure?
The outputs here are pretty striking.
The players in the top ten in receptions during this stretch are Jarvis Landry, Rashee Rice, Cooper Kupp, Greg Little, Diontae Johnson, DK Metcalf, JJ Smith-Schuster, Tyler Boyd, Tyler Lockett, Torrey Smith, Allen Robinson, and Tank Dell.
Nine of those twelve players went on to have at least one 1,000 yard season in the NFL. Of the three who didn’t, two (Rice and Dell) have only been in the league for two years. (And Rice missed most of his second season due to injury.)
Meanwhile, the bottom of the list hasn’t shown a promising career trajectory. Corley is only the eighth player from the group to register less than 10 catches. Atwell is the only player to produce a season with more than 300 yards, and his high year was 562.
Now I’m sure some people will say, “Corley’s circumstances are different from all of those guys.” That’s a common refrain whenever I compare a young player’s alarming lack of production to others. I’ve heard this on everyone from Christian Hackenberg to Denzel Mims.
Of course the specifics of Corley’s situation are different from anybody else’s. Every player who ever set foot on the field has had different circumstances from every other player.
Yes, some players have radically different development trajectories from the norm. Again, though, it is important to discuss how much improvement we can reasonably bet on a player having. “Anything is possible” is no way to build a team.
I am sure others will look to blame the Jets’ coaching staff. I have some sympathy for this argument because the Jets coaching staff was legitimately awful, one of the worst groups we have seen in a long time.
Still, there isn’t much to suggest this coaching staff actively prevented promising young players from getting onto the field and flourishing. Will McDonald, Joe Tippmann, and Olu Fashanu showed varying degrees of promise last season. The latter two were at the position where the Jets’ coaching was probably at its worst.
What does all of this mean?
I wouldn’t say Corley should be cut today. You have to bring 90 players to training camp.
I also wouldn’t say Corley should be cut. That depends on what we see in camp.
What I will say is this. To make the 53 man roster, Corley has to earn the spot. It has to be based on him being one of the top 53 players (or more precisely one of the top six to seven receivers).
Players always make the roster on some combination of talent and potential for the future. Some players might land a spot on the 53 not because they can help the team today but because there is a shot at development.
I think for Corley the latter argument would be difficult to build. If he doesn’t show up to training camp looking vastly improved, it would be tough to justify keeping him over a receiver who outperformed him based on potential.
“Potential” isn’t enough. Malachi Corley needs to earn his roster spot with the New York Jets.