Learning curve?
Yes, Joe knows the old phrase, “It’s Jimmys and Joes, not X’s and O’s.” While that’s not wrong, Joe is always reminded of what Mike Tanier (then of _Football Outsiders_) once wrote:
_“Nothing drags down talent like bad coaching.”_
Tanier was correct. Nothing will lasso talent like bad coaching. Further, great coaching can squeeze the utmost out of whatever talent a player may have, not to mention good coaching will find ways to position players to best make plays.
Per noted handicapper turned stathead Warren Sharp, coaching is why the Bucs offense skyrocketed to the top-three of the NFL last year. Liam Coen’s coaching.
Sharp didn’t notice a major difference in personnel or motion used, or anything out of the ordinary with Coen transitioning from 2023 offensive coordinator Dave Canales.
Well, except for one thing. And Sharp believes it made all the difference in the world: throwing on first downs.
In the just-published “_[Sharp Football Analysis 2025 Preview](https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/books/warren-sharp-new-book-2025-football-preview-lions-free-chapter/)_,” Sharp notes the biggest help Coen did to jump-start the Bucs offense was running less on first down, which his predecessors Byron Leftwich and Canales loved to do.
> Coen made the very smart decision to be pass-first on early downs to start games, something Canales and Leftwich refused to do.
>
> In 2024 in the first half, the Bucs ranked:
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> #10 in first down pass rate (up from #31 in 2023)
> #5 in early down pass rate (up from #25 in 2023)
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> This was a MASSIVE change.
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> And as a result, first half early down efficiency spiked:
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> #6 in success rate (53%) (up from #30 in 2023 with 34%) #8 in EPA (+0.04) (up from #28 in 2023 with -0.15)
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> #7 in yards/play (6.2) (up from #29 in 2023 with 4.6)
>
> …
>
> This was coaching, pure and simple.
Yes it was coaching. To be fair, Sharp added that a critical tool emerged last year that sure helped Coen and the Bucs move the ball. That was a competent running back by the name of Bucky Irving.
But yeah, Coen knew what he was doing. While he may have been a first-time NFL playcaller, he did have experience calling plays in the SEC at Kentucky. So Coen wasn’t like Canales, who was fully green to calling plays.
Joe sure hopes new Bucs offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, himself a first-time playcaller, doesn’t have that sort of Canales learning curve.