In fairness, it takes time both to assemble a puzzle and to evaluate it properly.
In the first two days of free agency, however, some winners and losers already have emerged. All it takes is one major move or whiff to change the dynamics. Below is an assessment of the latest snapshot.
Winners
Milwaukee Bucks/Damian Lillard
Initially, it appeared turbulence awaited the Milwaukee Bucks and Damian Lillard after they waived him unexpectedly.
NBA reporter Chris Haynes reported that Giannis Antetokounmpo “is not pleased” with the Bucks for the move after acquiring Lillard nearly two seasons ago. Lillard, who will turn 35 on July 15, faces more uncertainty about his value two months after rupturing his right Achilles tendon in Game 4 of Milwaukee’s first-round exit to Indiana.
Upon further review, the move appears to be a win-win scenario for both sides.
Although the Bucks should not give Antetokounmpo any reason to reconsider whether he wants to stay, this move actually freed them to make roster upgrades around Antetokounmpo. After letting veteran center Brook Lopez sign with the Los Angeles Clippers to clear cap space, Milwaukee acquired an elite rim protector on an NBA Finals team (Myles Turner). The Bucks also boast strong perimeter depth by retaining Taurean Prince and Gary Trent Jr. and acquiring Kevin Porter Jr.
As for Lillard, people around him view the development through a positive lens. He can stay in Portland to rehab. The Bucks still owe Lillard money for next season ($54.1 million) and in 2026-27 ($58.4 million). Lillard also can choose where he wants to play as an unrestricted free agent. Undoubtedly, Lillard may not command top dollar after returning from an Achilles injury in his mid 30s. But even if Lillard accepts a pay cut to join a contending team, the Bucks will still owe him money.
Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant and Houston Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr. fight for rebounding position at Footprint Center on March 30, 2025.
Kevin Durant and Jabari Smith Jr., shown battling for rebounding position on March 30, will join forces in Houston next season.
Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images
Houston Rockets
The Rockets have done everything a team should do to threaten the defending-champion Oklahoma City Thunder next season.
They acquired a star player that can still play at an All-NBA level (Kevin Durant). Though they dealt a young scorer (Jalen Green), a physical defender (Dillon Brooks) and a first-round pick (No. 10) to the Phoenix Suns, the Rockets maintained an emerging two-way star (Amen Thompson) and an elite big man (Alperen Şengün). Houston acquired a dangerous 3-and-D player (Dorian Finney-Smith), retained a valued veteran point guard (Fred VanVleet) and bolstered its center depth (Steven Adams, Clint Capela).
Expect the Rockets to make more deals to address their glut of centers and large salary. But Houston has a complete team, one mixed with established stars and role players as well as intriguing young talent. Barring major injuries, pencil the Rockets in to meet the Thunder in next year’s Western Conference finals.
Denver Nuggets
Following a turbulent season filled with injuries, inconsistency and tension between ex-coach Michael Malone and former general manager Calvin Booth, the Nuggets should finally feel good about their future. Denver dealt a valued-albeit-inconsistent wing (Michael Porter Jr.) and a first-round pick (2032) to Brooklyn for another proven wing (Cam Johnson). The Nuggets benefit from the deal both in talent (Johnson defends better) and cost savings (Porter makes $79.1 million over the next two seasons; Johnson makes $44 million).
Denver also reunited with a valued wing defender who became a key during its 2023 title run (Bruce Brown). The Nuggets did not retain Brown two years ago because of spending concerns, but Denver acquired him this time on a veteran’s minimum deal.
Does this make the Nuggets title favorites again? No. Nonetheless, consider that Nikola Jokić remains an MVP-caliber player, Jamal Murray has improved his health and David Adelman proved himself as head coach. With these latest moves, the Nuggets have become at least a dark-horse contender.
Boston Celtics center Kristaps Porziņģis operates with the ball as Atlanta Hawks guard Garrison Mathews defends at State Farm Arena on March 28, 2024.
Kristaps Porziņģis and Garrison Mathews, pictured during their game at State Farm Arena on March 28, 2024, are now Atlanta Hawks teammates.
Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
Atlanta Hawks
It appeared as if the Hawks finally would have to consider trading Trae Young following recent underachieving seasons. Instead, the Hawks finally have found some dependable pieces that accentuate Young’s strength (scoring) and shield his weakness (defense).
First, the Hawks acquired a versatile big who thrives as a shooter, passer and floor spacer (Kristaps Porziņģis), a move that the Boston Celtics made reluctantly in a three-team trade mostly to address second-apron concerns. Atlanta then acquired a dependable two-way perimeter player in a sign-and-trade with Minnesota (Nickeil Alexander-Walker) and landed a sharpshooter on a one-year deal (Luke Kennard).
With these moves, the Hawks have a legitimate chance to position themselves well in a weakened Eastern Conference.
Losers
Free agency buzz
In past years, teams miraculously agreed to deals with coveted players a minute after free agency started. Though that exposed that teams never obeyed the NBA’s tampering rules, the alternative dampens enthusiasm for the league’s offseason movement.
Blame other factors, too. With the NBA making star players eligible for supermax extensions, most stars will never enter a free-agency period again. The NBA’s increasing spending penalties also have made teams more concerned about shedding costs than making splashy moves. What a shame. The NBA understandably wishes fans cared more about the actual games than persisting speculation about free agency moves. But the NBA shouldn’t shy away from a vehicle that drives a lot of interest.
There aren’t any easy solutions. Teams worry about how a star player’s pending free agency will affect team dynamics in the locker room, on the court and in trade negotiations. The NBA has tried to ensure parity between big- and small-market teams. Regardless, top minds within the league office and players union need to find that sweet spot to ensure fan excitement both with entertaining games and free-agency sweepstakes.
Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Dončić and forward LeBron James speak during their game against the Chicago Bulls at Crypto.com Arena on March 22, 2025.
Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Dončić speaks with forward LeBron James during their game against the Chicago Bulls at Crypto.com Arena on March 22.
Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images
Los Angeles Lakers
Both the Lakers and LeBron James have valid reasons to feel frustrated with each other.
After James exercised his $52.2 million option to return next season, agent Rich Paul shared a statement that highlighted his client’s desire to win an NBA championship and validated that the Lakers have dueling timelines. The comment may read as boilerplate. Nonetheless, it has also sparked suspicion about James’ motives. Does James distrust the front office about making win-now moves? Does James want to secure his money more than seeing if a pay cut could give the team more flexibility. Did James waive his inability to get traded before the deadline for a reason?
If James has any of those misgivings, the Lakers haven’t really done much to assuage his concerns. The Lakers failed to retain a valued 3-and-D player (Finney-Smith) despite his consistency, strong locker room standing and comfort playing with Luka Dončić with the Lakers and the Dallas Mavericks. The Lakers recovered by acquiring another valued wing (Jake LaRavia), but they still haven’t addressed their biggest offseason priority — bolstering their frontcourt. Most of the coveted big men are now unavailable, including Lopez and Capela.
The Lakers may land Deandre Ayton, who wants to revitalize his career after agreeing to a buyout with Portland. The Lakers could land veteran Al Horford, too. But they seem overly cautious when they should be making moves to maximize their championship window for the short term (James) and long term (Dončić).
Malik Beasley
Technically, Beasley hasn’t been charged with anything and presumably will have his day in court. But in the short term, Beasley likely squandered his potential free-agency earnings with the Detroit Pistons amid his involvement in a federal gambling probe. Beasley’s former marketing agency also reportedly filed a lawsuit that accused him of not paying back a $650,000 advance in the past year.
Beasley had become a key reason for the Pistons’ making the playoffs following five missed postseason appearances. He elevated the team with his outside shooting, locker room mentorship and strong work habits. Uncertainty awaits on whether Beasley becomes implicated or exonerated. But considering that these investigations take time, don’t expect any team to risk signing Beasley.
Dallas Mavericks
Sure, the Mavericks may recover from inexplicably dealing Dončić by surprisingly landing the No. 1 pick and using it on a generational talent (Cooper Flagg). But that’s luck — not vision — as Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison claimed.
This is vision: after repeatedly stating that “defense wins championships” to justify the Dončić deal, Harrison acquired a player who plays very little defense. Sure, D’Angelo Russell can serve as a temporary starting point guard while Kyrie Irivng recovers from his ACL injury. Russell developed strong chemistry with Anthony Davis during their 2½ seasons with the Lakers.
But couldn’t the Mavericks have found a better backcourt option? Russell has remained a streaky shooter. He won’t elevate a team defensively no matter how much he has relatively increased his effort. Despite Russell's strong playmaking and shooting, the Mavericks should have pursued better options that actually enhance the team's defense.
Mark Medina is an NBA contributor for Athlon Sports. Follow him onX,Blue Sky,Instagram,Facebook andThreads.