All anyone wants is a plan.
The angry social media mob of Heat fans who demand action, any transaction at all -– the ones who aren’t appeased by the two Finals appearances this decade -– want a plan.
The significant segment of fans who appreciate the seven Finals appearances this century -- and how the organization fields a relevant, professional product most every year -- also want a plan.
It’s reasonable, for any fan, to expect a clearly conveyed plan after a disappointing start to the offseason, in the wake of an embarrassing first round sweep against Cleveland.
It’s reasonable to expect an explanation when Miami still has 13 of the 15 players that were on the team at the end of a 37-45 season and after team president Pat Riley said in May that “I think we do have to make changes. There’s no doubt. There has to be some change.”
Though it hasn’t been publicly stated, the Heat actually has a plan, and it’s probably the most realistic one at this point, even though it will be unsatisfying to some:
According to people with direct knowledge, Miami’s intention is to “let our young guys show what they can do” and see what this team looks like with Erik Spoelstra having a full training camp, with the Jimmy Butler distraction in the rearview mirror and with first-round pick Kasparas Jakucionis added to a core of young players that the organization believes has a high upside.
Part 2 of the plan is to try to quickly pounce if an in-his-prime star, or very good player, becomes available in the trade market. (It has been widely reported that Giannis Antetokounmpo will be a Heat target if he asks out of Milwaukee, and that’s very likely. Whether the Heat has enough assets to compete with Houston, the Spurs and Knicks in a bid for the two-time MVP remains questionable.)
The Heat admires Kevin Durant and made repeated efforts to acquire him but ultimately decided not to relinquish a half dozen collective assets because the window to win with Durant would have been small because of his age (36) and the risk of “giving up a lot of assets with a short runaway” to win.
Multiple sources said the Heat never thought it was close to landing Durant.
The Heat believes it cannot accurately judge last season’s post-Butler roster because of the chaos that Butler created, a change in roles for different players, Andrew Wiggins’ ankle injury and other factors.
It also believes all of its recent draft picks -- Kel’el Ware, Nikola Jovic, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Pelle Larssen and Jakucionis -- all have a chance to “be really good players” and that at least some of their roles will become more significant, which it characterizes as “internal change.”
As one source said, “we’re getting them in their developmental years” and moving them into larger roles if they earn it. The point was made that it takes players five or six years to reach their prime, so Miami has no idea has good this young core can actually become.
Would Miami part with several pieces of its young core for an in-his-prime star? I believe so. But the Heat wasn’t going to do that for a star in his mid-30s.
Meanwhile, a source with direct knowledge said the Heat has given no consideration to trading Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro and essentially starting from scratch, with a treasure trove of picks that likely could be acquired by dealing Adebayo.
The Heat believes that tanking -- stripping the roster with the hope of a brighter future -- fails more often than it works. That is not a philosophy the organization plans to rethink.
A few other pieces of news:
▪ The Heat is not looking to waive-and-stretch Terry Rozier, a mechanism that Milwaukee used this week with Damian Lillard.
By waiving-and-stretching Rozier, his $26.6 million salary next season (the final year of his contract) would be spread over several years. Miami instead will either trade Rozier (if it finds a deal it likes) or keep him next season.
▪ While the Heat would listen on proposals involving Andrew Wiggins (who likely would have been moved in a Durant deal), Miami is not determined to trade him.
As one source said, the Heat obtained Wiggins in the Butler trade because the organization liked his game and views him as a good complement to Adebayo and Herro, not with the intent of necessarily using his contract to help facilitate a trade.
The Heat views him as a good player and does not want to trade him simply to change around the pieces. Nevertheless, it will listen if presented with offers.
▪ While the Heat likes impending free agent Damian Lillard, there is no roster spot to offer him while he spends next season rehabbing from a torn Achilles. Would the Heat create a roster spot in an attempt to acquire Lillard on a multi-year deal? That’s unclear; it assuredly will be discussed internally.
ESPN and The Athletic reported Tuesday night that a dozen teams have reached out to Lillard and some are willing to give him a contract immediately. The Heat was not identified among that partial list of teams.
Lillard, as of Tuesday, hadn’t decided whether to sign with a team in the months ahead or wait until he is fully healthy, according to a source close to him. The Heat has interest -- and Lillard still likes the Heat, the source said -- but whether that leads to a marriage is questionable.
▪ There is no specific Heat goal of creating 2026 cap space, but there is a desire to maintain flexibility, which likely means having room under the luxury tax line and first apron, which makes trades easier.
The Heat originally appeared to be squirreling away cap space for 2026, but carving out max space will be more challenging after trading for Wiggins (who has a $30.2 million player option for 2026-27) and giving Davion Mitchell a two-year, $24 million deal. No max-worthy free agent might even hit the market next summer.
Jaren Jackson Jr. agreed to an extension with Memphis this week. De’Aaron Fox is widely expected to agree to a long-term deal with the Spurs at some point. Trae Young, who could become a free agent next July, helped recruit free agents to Atlanta and has indicated he’s happy there.
Luka Doncic is widely expected to sign a long-term deal with the Lakers this summer.
Doncic, Young and Fox are the only elite potential 2026 unrestricted free agents and all of them could be signed longterm by October.
That leaves Chicago’s Coby White as the next best potential 2026 free agent.
The next tier including Portland’s DeAndre Ayton, Boston’s Anfernee Simons, Atlanta’s Porzingis, Chicago’s Nik Vucevic and Kevin Huerter, Detroit’s Tobias Harris, Golden State’s Draymond Green (if he opts out of $27.7 million for 2026-27), the Clippers’ Norman Powell, the Lakers’ Rui Hachimura and Austin Reeves (if he opts out of $14.9 million for 2026-27), Washington’s CJ McCollum, the Knicks’ Mikal Bridges and Mitchell Robinson, Portland’s oft-injured Robert Willliams III, San Antonio’s Harrison Barnes, Charlotte’s Collin Sexton and Washington’s Marcus Smart.
Some of those players could be in play for Miami next summer if the Heat emerges with $27 million or so in 2026 cap space, which would be the projection if the Heat trades Wiggins for an expiring contract.
Without Lillard or any new additions whose contracts run past next season, Miami would have about $138 million in cap commitments for 2026-27 if Wiggins is dealt for a player who would come off Miami’s books next June, and if Miami (in the next 11 months) parts ways with Kyle Anderson, whose $9.6 million salary for 2026-27 is not guaranteed.
That $138 million -- which is not a precise figure because the cap charge for Miami’s 2026 first-round pick would depend on the slot of the pick -- is about $27 million below the projected $165 million cap number for 2026-27, a figure that is about $6 million less than what teams originally expected.
(ESPN’s Bobby Marks said the rise in the cap is expected to be only 7 percent - not another 10 percent - next summer.)
So any thought of signing a max free agent next summer is now highly unlikely, in part because nobody worthy of a max likely will make it to market and in part because of the smaller-than-expected cap increase and the fully guaranteed deal given to Mitchell.
If the Heat operates as a “room team” next summer – meaning using cap space and remaining under the cap – Jovic would count only $6.6 million on Miami’s cap even if he signs for substantially more as a potential restricted free agent next summer.
At the moment, the Heat looks neck and neck with Chicago (and possibly Toronto) as the 10th or 11th most talented team in the East, if one presumes that Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid will be ambulatory (always a risky assumption) and that Orlando (Desmond Bane) and Atlanta (Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kristaps Porzingis) take a jump.
Indiana, having lost Myles Turner to Milwaukee and Tyrese Haliburton to a long-term injury, likely will take a significant step back. And nobody knows how the Bucks will replace Lillard’s 25 points per game, even while adding size with Myles Turner.
Though Heat fans justifiably hoped for more significant change, there’s nothing currently available that likely would drastically alter the team’s 2025-26 outlook.
So the current plan - letting the kids play and hoping the team can someday reel in an in-his-prime whale - will require more patience from a fan base wielding pitchforks and calling for immediate action. And there is something to be said for investing in youth.
For Heat fans of a certain age, there has been several eras of instant gratification - the Shaquille O’Neal/Dwyane Wade years, the Big Three era, the first few years of the Butler incarnation. This isn’t one of those eras.
So Miami is taking the long view here, and for better or worse, it’s probably the most realistic remaining path.