We look ahead to this quarter-final at the 2025 Club World Cup with our PSG vs Bayern Munich prediction and preview. Will the European champions prevail?
PSG vs Bayern Munich Stats: The Key Insights
The Opta supercomputer is backing PSG to win this one, giving them a 57.7% chance of progressing to the semi-finals.
PSG have lost half of their matches against German opposition under Luis Enrique (3/6).
Bayern Munich have won each of their last four games against PSG, with all of those matches coming since 2021 in the UEFA Champions League.
The 2025 FIFA Club World Cup is set for a heavyweight European quarter-final clash on Saturday as Paris Saint-Germain take on Bayern Munich in Atlanta.
Champions League winners PSG thrashed Inter Miami 4-0 in the round of 16, but face a much sterner test in the last eight.
Both of these teams are fallible, having already lost a game at this Club World Cup tournament. In the group stage, PSG lost 1-0 to Botafogo, while Bayern were beaten by the same scoreline by Benfica.
PSG’s defeat was the only blemish on an otherwise excellent recent record. They have won eight of their last nine matches in all competitions, conceding only four goals in the process. Botafogo’s goal is the only one they have let in during their Club World Cup campaign.
Bayern have looked rather less secure at the back; their only clean sheet at the 2025 Club World Cup came in a 10-0 win over lowly Auckland City. They have shipped four goals in their last three games, including two in their round-of-16 match victory over Flamengo, a game in which they lost the xG battle.
flamengo 2-4 bayern munich xg race
The German side have won their last four games against PSG, though, with all of those meetings coming since 2021 in the Champions League. The last team to win five in a row against PSG was Rennes, doing so between 2007 and 2009 in Ligue 1 (a run of six wins).
Their last meeting – a 1-0 win for Bayern in November 2024 – was the only game in the Luis Enrique era that PSG have both lost and had less possession than their opponent (42.9%) in the same match.
PSG have also lost half of their matches against German sides under Luis Enrique (3/6 – two defeats vs Borussia Dortmund and one vs Bayern). If they suffer defeat here, they’ll have lost as many games against German opponents (four in seven games) under their current manager as they have against opponents from their native France (four in 84 games).
However, they have improved a lot recently. They have gone eight straight games across all competitions in which they have limited their opponents to under one expected goal and fewer than 10 attempts.
It is expected to be hot in Atlanta when this game kicks off at midday local time, but don’t be surprised if the teams still produce an intense game. In the group stage of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, PSG (6.7) and Bayern (7) were the two sides with the lowest PPDA average (opposition passes allowed per defensive action), as well as the two sides who applied the most high-intensity pressures in the final third (366 for PSG, 337 for Bayern).
PSG vs Bayern Munich Prediction
PSG vs Bayern Munich Prediction Club World Cup
PSG are the favourites to progress from this tie, winning inside 90 minutes in 45.6% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations, and making it into the semi-finals one way or another 57.7% of the time.
It is far from a foregone conclusion, though, with Bayern Munich winning the tie 43.3% of the time. They win inside 90 minutes in 28.7% of the supercomputer’s pre-match simulations, and the game is sent to extra-time in the remaining 25.7% of simulations.
The strength of these two teams is reflected in the fact that the supercomputer says there is almost a 40% chance of one of them winning the whole tournament. PSG are given a 24.9% chance while Bayern come out victorious in 14.8% of simulations.
PSG vs Bayern Munich Squads
Paris Saint-Germain
Gianluigi Donnarumma, Achraf Hakimi, Presnel Kimpembe, Lucas Beraldo, Marquinhos, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Fabián Ruiz, Gonçalo Ramos, Ousmane Dembele, Désiré Doué, Vitinha, Lee Kang-in, Gabriel Moscardo, Lucas Hernandez, Senny Mayulu, Nuno Mendes, Bradley Barcola, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Matvey Safonov, Yoram Zague, Noham Kamara, Naoufel El Hannach, Ibrahim Mbaye, Lucas Lavallée, Willian Pacho, Arnau Tenas, João Neves.
Head Coach: Luis Enrique
Bayern Munich
Manuel Neuer, Dayot Upamecano, Kim Min-jae, Jonathan Tah, Joshua Kimmich, Serge Gnabry, Leon Goretzka, Harry Kane, Leroy Sané, Kingsley Coman, Eric Dier, João Palhinha, Michael Olise, Daniel Peretz, Tom Bischof, Raphaël Guerreiro, Sacha Boey, Gabriel Vidović, Thomas Müller, Konrad Laimer, Cassiano Kiala, Maurice Krattenmacher, Wisdom Mike, Jonas Urbig, Jonah Kusi-Asare, Jamal Musiala, Josip Stanišić, Aleksandar Pavlović, Lennart Karl, David Santos, Leon Klanac, Adam Aznou.
Head Coach: Vincent Kompany
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.
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