In the National Football League, there are about a third of the teams in the league that we can feel pretty strongly won't make the playoffs. Then, there are about a half dozen or so teams that are strong bets to make deep runs in the playoffs. Then, there's the rest of the league, where the outcome could be anything from missing the playoffs to making the Super Bowl.
It's in that third group, probably about 15 teams to so, where the Houston Texans currently sit. Their season win total prop bet in Vegas is 9.5 wins, meaning that a handful fo plays this season will separate them from 8-9 and 12-5. That feels about right.
Each of the last two seasons had ended identically — a 10-7 regular season record, an AFC South title, a blowout win at home in the wild card round, and a frustrating loss on the road in the divisional round. DeMeco Ryans' job is to get the Texans to new heights. Those are his exact words.
Below are the odds (courtesy of BetOnline.ag) for the Texans' season ending at the various levels of the postseason, with missing the postseason altogether an option. What would the Texans' season look and feel like at each of these outcomes. What would have to happen? Let's examine:
To Miss Playoffs +120The Texans haven't reached a level to where missing the playoffs is out of the question. At +120, it's still an underdog, but if there is a regression in their performance in one-score games (14-8 in two seasons under Ryans), or a spate of injuries in the wrong places, they could easily miss the playoffs. An injury to C.J. Stroud? I don't even want to discuss.
To Lose in Wild Card Round +250The Texans have won two wild card round playoff games, both blowouts at home, under Ryans. Obviously, they were at home because they won the AFC South. I think if they lose in the wild card round, it's because they were an actual wild card team, having to travel on the road to go play. It gets particularly dicey if that road trip is to cold weather.
To Lose in Divisional Round +450This is exactly what the Texans have done in the postseason in six of the eight seasons when they've made it, including the last two years. This would not be a surprising place for the Texans playoff journey to end.
To Lose in Conference Championship +900Now we are into selections where, sure, the Texans are getting eliminated, but losing at these stages would absolutely, unequivocally be viewed as progress. I think the biggest key to the Texans getting to a conference title game is winning the games they are supposed to win in the regular season, and securing a top two seed in the AFC, which would guarantee a home game in the divisional round. In 2023, they finished 10-7, but had bad losses to the Falcons, Panthers, and Jets. Similarly, in 2024, the Texans lost to the Jets and Titans, and blew a 23-6 second half lead to the Lions.
To Lose in Super Bowl +2800
To Win Super Bowl +3500I'll put these in the same category of "what needs to happen," because once you get to the Super Bowl, winning or losing the game depends on matchups, so let's talk about GETTING to the Super Bowl. For this to happen, the offensive line absolutely has to improve to being average. Last season, it was abysmal. Stroud needs to be healthy for the postseason (non-negotiable), and the defense needs to be everything we've dreamed about all offseason. These things are all very possible.
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