In a matter of 12 months removed from a championship, the title-winning team is now dismantling the pieces that got them there. The 2024 champion Celtics' trading of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, in an effort to mitigate their luxury tax bill, officially marks the beginning of the hard-cap era in the NBA. Regardless of whether they repeated as champions or not, this was nearly unavoidable.
Two trades for Boston, resulting in $27 million in salary savings, saved them nearly $200 million in luxury taxes due to the exponential nature of the tax penalties. The intentions of this assertive, if not outright aggressive, collective bargaining agreement have largely been achieved. Dynastic super teams are a thing of the past, but consequently, good-to-great teams have very limited windows. Boston’s was two years.
Now, as Oklahoma City raises Larry O’Brien, potential perennial contention dominates their narrative. But why does their window for contention appear to be a little more open than Boston’s? They are subject to the same CBA with the same restrictions, so what gives them more time to work with than Boston?
The answer is youth.
The NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement is a harsh and brutal document only understood by some of the best, most specialized analysts out there. Basically, without falling down too much of a digression, there are a few different types of contracts. Max contracts and super max contracts range from 25 to 35 percent of the salary cap, with the highest tier being reserved for those meeting the qualifiers of All-NBA, MVP, or Defensive Player of the Year along with seven or eight years of service.
The Celtics have two of these, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Conversely, the Thunder have none. Their highest-paid player, league and Finals MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, signed a 25 percent max, which was boosted to 30 percent after his achieving All-NBA honors. His most recent extension will get him to that 35 percent mark once it kicks in in 2027.
Meanwhile, OKC’s other two best players, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, are on rookie-scale contracts. Rookie scale deals are determined by the league and draft position and are capped relatively low. If a rookie turns into a star ahead of schedule, it becomes a team-friendly deal very quickly. Williams and Holmgren’s contracts will make up a collective 13.14 percent of their cap in 2026. All told, that’s three great players for OKC under 45 percent of their cap room.
Looking back at Boston, their two best guys make up nearly 70 percent of their cap room. Williams and Holmgren will of course, eventually demand more compensation, but even after their rookie-scale deals, the most they could potentially earn is the 30 percent max.
It will still be a hefty payroll, but as can be seen with Boston’s tax bill, saving that five percent per player makes an exponential difference once in the luxury tax. And any savings gives their front office that much more flexibility.
Acquiring talent for a team is a skill, but managing the cap space to pay that talent is another and nearly impossible if the goal is longevity. The only hope for efficiency is to find youth and hope they pan out. This is good news for the San Antonio Spurs.
Victory Wembanyama is obviously still on a rookie-scale deal, making up about 8.65 percent of the Spurs' cap space this upcoming season. Provided he makes All-NBA, wins MVP or Defensive Player of the Year, as most predict, he will qualify for a 30 percent max. Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle, as well as incoming rookie Dylan Harper, are naturally also on rookie scale deals. Their two salaries will be around 15 percent of the cap combined.
This youth gives the Spurs not only options to build right now, but also the ability to continue to build with their guys. One is already a star, if Harper, Castle, or both can join Wembanyama among those ranks, its effect will be twofold. It’s the talent they provide and the payroll efficiency and flexibility. Thus giving the Spurs more options when building a contender around them.
What this all hinges on is the front office's ability to evaluate talent, and the coaching staff’s ability to develop it. It’s not a secret that finding talent at a young age is an all-around win for an organization. But it isn’t easy. Winning a championship is hard enough; winning multiple is reserved for the elite of the elite, and something we have yet to see in this CBA era. To get there, teams need to find their franchise guys fast.
The Spurs are no stranger to this effect. Tim Duncan entered the league as an All-NBA first team player, and they won a championship in just his sophomore season with him still on a rookie contract. Then went on to win four more.