Let’s get one thing straight off the jump: Caleb Williams is talented. You don’t win the Heisman, go first overall, and pull off Mahomes-lite highlight reels if you’re trash. But before Bears fans book hotel rooms for Santa Clara next February, let’s talk about what actually wins Super Bowls in the NFL — and how far Williams still has to go.
We’ve already looked at the scores of the offensive line, defensive line, offensive weapons, and defensive secondary. Today, we go over the final and most important position in football: the quarterback.
We dug into the last 10 Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks, from Brady’s dominance to Mahomes’ magic to that one Nick Foles fever dream. Turns out, there’s a blueprint. And if you stack up Williams’ rookie tape and stats against it, the gap is obvious.
The Gold Standard: What It Takes to Win the Big One
Super Bowl Winning QB Metrics (2015-2024)
Metric Super Bowl Benchmark
Passer Rating 102.9
TD/Game 2.17
INT/Game 0.65
Completion % 66.3%
TD:INT Ratio 4.55:1
Yards/Game 294.3
Want a Lombardi? Hit those numbers, or come damn close. Mahomes (3 rings), Brady (4 rings in that span), and even guys like Stafford and Foles checked those boxes when it counted. Peyton Manning dragged a corpse of an arm to one in 2016, but he’s the exception — not the rule.
Subscribe to the BFR Youtube channel and ride shotgun with Dave and Ficky as they break down Bears football like nobody else.
And when you calculate a composite score across these stats with weighted value (passer rating, TDs, picks, etc.), you need a 75+ out of 100 to be a true Super Bowl-caliber QB.
Statistical Overview of Super Bowl Winning Quarterbacks
Year Quarterback Team Passer Rating Passing Yards TD INT Comp %
2015 Tom Brady Patriots 102.2 4,436 28 8 64.4%
2016 Peyton Manning Broncos 67.9 2,249 9 17 59.8%
2017 Tom Brady Patriots 112.2 3,554 28 2 67.4%
2018 Nick Foles Eagles 79.5 537 5 2 56.4%
2019 Tom Brady Patriots 100.7 4,057 29 11 65.8%
2020 Patrick Mahomes Chiefs 105.3 4,031 26 5 65.9%
2021 Tom Brady Bucs 102.2 4,633 40 12 65.7%
2022 Matthew Stafford Rams 102.9 4,886 41 17 67.2%
2023 Patrick Mahomes Chiefs 105.2 5,250 41 12 67.1%
2024 Patrick Mahomes Chiefs 92.6 4,183 27 14 67.2%
The Caleb Conundrum: Where the Bears’ Guy Stands
Caleb Williams’ rookie line? (StatMuse)
Metric Caleb Benchmark
Passer Rating 87.8 102.9
TD/Game 1.18 2.17
INT/Game 0.35 0.65
Completion % 62.5% 66.3%
Yards/Game 208.3 294.3
TD:INT Ratio 3.33 4.55
Translation: a mixed bag. He protects the ball well and shows flashes. But the raw production just isn’t there yet. His composite score? 58.9/100.
That puts him in the “Playoff Hopeful” category. Not a bust. But not a guy who can drag you to the promised land either.
Let’s Break It Down
What’s Working
Mobility & Improvisation: Kid can move. 6.0 YPC on 81 carries proves he’s not just scrambling to panic.
Pocket Presence: Surprisingly poised for a rookie. When protection held up, he flashed top-10 vision.
Turnover Control: Only six picks? That’s elite-level discipline, especially for a guy throwing into NFL windows for the first time.
What’s Broken
Volume & Efficiency: 86 fewer yards per game than the average Super Bowl winner? You’re not winning in January dinking your way down the field.
Accuracy: 62.5% ain’t terrible, but when you’re aiming for 66%+ to be elite? That’s a problem.
Scoring Punch: 20 touchdowns over 17 games won’t cut it. That’s JV-level firepower for a team with DJ Moore and Rome Odunze.
QB Composite Scores: Super Bowl Winning QBs from 2014-2024 vs. Caleb Williams in 2024
But Wait, Context Matters
Let’s not act like this dude was dealing with the 2020 Chiefs offense. His line was leaky, his OC was learning him on the fly, and Chicago still had one foot in rebuild mode. Despite that, he progressed steadily and never looked lost. That’s rare.
Now he’s got:
A retooled O-line with Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson locking things down
Three WR1-caliber weapons in Moore, Odunze, and Luther Burden III
Ben Johnson calling plays, a mad scientist who made Jared Goff look surgical in Detroit
No more excuses.
The Leap: What It Would Take to Contend
Let’s say Caleb hits every key benchmark next season. What does that look like?
Metric Current Target Needed Growth
Passer Rating 87.8 102.9 +15.1
TD/Game 1.18 2.17 +0.99
Completion % 62.5% 66.3% +3.8%
Yards/Game 208.3 294.3 +86.0
It’s a massive jump. But not impossible. Especially not with the weapons he has now.
If he gets there, his composite score jumps to 89.3. That’s Mahomes/Brady-tier.
Real Talk: What’s the Timeline?
Best case? He takes that leap in 2025 and we’re talking NFC Championship.
More realistically? Year 3. That’s when most high-ceiling QBs hit their stride. Think Allen. Think Burrow. Even Mahomes redshirted year one.
The Bears are finally not screwing up their QB’s development — but that doesn’t mean they’re contenders just yet.
Final Verdict
The Bears and Caleb Williams aren’t frauds. They’re just not contenders yet. The arm talent, decision-making, and mobility are all there. But the production and efficiency have to catch up.
In a league where you need to throw daggers on third down and bury teams in the red zone, 208 passing yards per game and 1.18 TDs ain’t scaring anybody.
Give it time. The bones of a Super Bowl team are there — especially with Johnson at the helm and a revamped roster. But if you’re dreaming about a ring in 2025? You might want to pump the brakes. Yeah, I know it’s a team sport, but let’s be real: quarterback is the main driver of how far a team can actually go.