Since the Buffalo Bills moved on from wide receiver Stefon Diggs, it’s fair to say the team’s receiving game has been a work in progress. Yes, reasonable to consider despite the offense putting up prolific points-scored numbers in 2024.
Though many are quick to point to (insert your favorite Bills pass catcher here) making the passing game hum, there is no clear top option in the mold of a WR1. It works for Buffalo right now because Josh Allen is an elite quarterback, one of the game’s very best.
Whether by design or necessity, the Bills have very vocally taken on the “everybody eats” persona. It’s a concept that isn’t too dissimilar from the Run & Shoot, which puts receivers in motion pre-snap and allows (asks) them to make on-the-fly route adjustments after diagnosing a defense.
Allen has become a field general with surgical-like ability to read and thread a completion to anyone anywhere on the field, and often his work behind the line of scrimmage requires receivers staying available for an extended time, often well outside of the scripted route. That plays well into what wide receiver Khalil Shakir does well, losing defenders in traffic between the sticks.
In the past, everyone knew Allen was looking for Diggs in critical moments — and it wasn’t up until the very end of things that anyone could do a thing to stop it. Yes, Diggs’ incessant need for the football became a problem, but there’s a reason so many teams covet WR1s.
The idea that everyone is on equal footing, involved in a featured role or as supporting cast game to game has its pluses, certainly. But when a defense manages to shut the concept down, and has defenders who play a brand of football superior to the Bills’ receivers, problems appear.
One has to wonder if there’s a lack of well-developed chemistry between Allen and (insert receiver name) to rise above these roadblocks. To believe there is anywhere on the same level as the Allen-Diggs connection is foolish. But it’s not as though Buffalo lacks options.
Most would say that Khalil Shakir is Allen’s top target, and Allen speaks highly of his game. But is he a 120-target, 1,400-plus receiver? He hasn’t shown to be such yet (100 targets, 821 yards in 2024). It also appears as though Shakir isn’t someone Allen looks to specifically in certain situations — his production more akin to making things happen apart from design.
Consider Buffalo’s final game, its latest playoff loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. We’ll avoid discussing the defense’s featured role in the loss for this article. In the waning moments of the game during a drive to re-claim the lead, Allen didn’t have a top target who he’d worked the entire season with to overcome the odds. Instead, during the Bills’ final offensive play — where protection broke down thanks to an expert defensive call — Allen was forced to ad-lib, eventually heaving an incomplete pass to tight end Dalton Kincaid.
Watching that moment play out, it’s impossible to believe that Kincaid was the preferred target, instead his look more the product of opportunity meeting an “expiring clock” of Allen’s. That was a moment where an alpha playmaker could have changed the team’s fortunes — and one where Kincaid should have never been the play given what they knew about his injuries.
But if not Kincaid, who was Allen going to find?
All of Bills Mafia saw Buffalo’s selection of Kincaid in Round 1 as a sign. The offense was finally going to feature an athletic, pass-catching tight end — someone who could take over a game in ways that Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, and David Njoku have in recent years. To this point in time, that hasn’t happened for the Bills. But why? It’s not because tight end Dawson Knox has vultured all the snaps.
It’s because everyone eats, and concepts are the priority, asking players to understand the entire concept of a play rather than just their specific role. Conceptually, it sounds great — and should allow players to lead with their athleticism. That is, once they’ve mastered the play and committed every route to muscle memory. Yet when those concepts break down and a defense is closing in on Allen, he no longer has a top target to look for first. Instead, he has to scan the entire field and work through his progressions.
To this point, offensive coordinator Joe Brady hasn’t developed a go-to receiver the likes of Diggs. Do the Bills have the right personnel to develop the type of playmaker capable of winning 1-on-1 matchups that save a season?
Tyler Dunne believes they do, and he’s putting his chips in on Kincaid. Choosing Kincaid feels right, given the priority placed on him in the draft. But also because the hope is that he’s fully healthy for the 2025 NFL season, or at least enough where his on-field production isn’t stymied by injury.
Dunne believes that “even 10 percent healthier, he hauls in Allen’s prayer last season at Arrowhead and there’s a good chance the Bills are in the Super Bowl.” I’m not sure I feel the same way, even when considering Kincaid’s 73-catch rookie season as pointed to by Dunne. Do you remember who played outside receiver when Kincaid was a rookie? Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, who both had strong chemistry with Allen and took away a large percentage of defensive attention on Kincaid.
We need to see Brady make more of a commitment to develop Kincaid into a receiver at all levels of the field. Otherwise, asking him to ad-lib on a heave by Allen in a playoff game will continually render too off-script for a player many expect to become “the guy” downfield. Yes, Kincaid has proven to be effective catching passes deep downfield, but few if any tandems featured more incompletions than did Allen-to-Kincaid.
We heard general manager Brandon Beane talk of Kincaid’s physical makeup, and the Bills organizationally have asked him to bulk up. It’s unclear what adding weight will do to Kincaid’s game, but it should allow him to hold up to the rigors of NFL life as a tight end.
Does that make Kincaid into the 1-on-1 matchup nightmare this offense so desperately needs? Reports during early offseason work stated that Kincaid still looked fast. It’s important to remember that speed in shorts a t-shirt is vastly different than wearing a full uniform and facing a hostile opponent.
I’ve long-viewed former NFL wide receiver Ed McCaffrey as an interesting if-not-apt comparison for Kincaid’s future. Putting on weight doesn’t necessarily take such a lofty goal off the table for Kincaid, unless it’s being done to make him more into a traditional tight end.
I’m not calling for Kincaid to switch positions and become a traditional slot receiver as was the case with McCaffrey. Today’s NFL doesn’t require it. It would be great if Buffalo managed to develop Kincaid into someone talented similarly to McCaffrey, leveraging the mismatches certain to be found out of tight end formations.
Dunne sees a promising 2025 for Kincaid, ending his recent mailbag on the topic by saying:
“I’d wager Kincaid leads this team in receptions, yards and gets his shot at playoff redemption.”
It’s an idea that should find favor with all of Bills Mafia. Undoubtedly, developing a top passing target will benefit the Bills far beyond crunch time, and give other receivers more opportunity against single coverage.
How do you see the 2025 NFL season going for Dalton Kincaid?