GREEN BAY, Wis. – In 66 days, the Green Bay Packers will kick off the 2025 NFL season against the Detroit Lions. For the first time in his tenure, coach Matt LaFleur will start the season at home. In fact, the Packers will open with back-to-back home games.
Will that help the Packers get off to a fast start and potentially position themselves for an NFC North championship or homefield advantage in the playoffs? Will it even matter?
The Lambeau Field mystique died long ago. If you had to put a date on it, the obituary would have been dated Jan. 4, 2003. That’s when Michael Vick and the Atlanta Falcons routed the Packers 27-7 in a wild-card playoff game.
The fact is homefield advantage really isn’t much of an advantage. As noted by Fox Sports, the home team has won 53 percent of the time or worse in four of the past six seasons. Over the previous 54 seasons during the Super Bowl era, there were only four such seasons.
“The stadiums are largely the same, the weather is pretty much as hot or as cold as it used to be, and yet the advantage has lessened significantly,” wrote Fox’s Greg Auman.
That certainly holds true for the Packers. Lambeau Field has only grown over the years. The Frozen Tundra is just as frozen.
Relatively speaking, the Packers have been excellent at home under coach Matt LaFleur. Since 2019, Green Bay is 38-12 at Lambeau. Only the Buffalo Bills (39-11) have a better record. However:
– While the Packers went 6-3 at home last season, they were swept by their NFC North rivals. Not all that long ago, the Lions didn’t win a single game in Wisconsin over the span of a quarter-century. Under coach Dan Campbell, the Lions, who play their home games indoors, have won three in a row in Green Bay. Like Packers fans fill opposing venues, Lions fans (and Vikings fans) invade Lambeau in huge numbers.
– Under LaFleur, the Packers are 2-2 at home in the playoffs. By contrast, home teams went 10-2 at home last year and are 28-8 the last three years.
Home vs. Away Under Matt LaFleur
Home or away, the Packers have been excellent under coach Matt LaFleur.
2024: 6-3 at home, 5-3 on the road.
2023: 5-3 at home, 4-5 on the road.
2022: 5-4 at home, 3-5 on the road.
2021: 8-0 at home, 5-4 on the road.
2020: 7-1 at home, 6-2 on the road.
2019: 7-1 at home, 6-2 on the road.
Total: 38-12 at home, 29-21 on the road.
Green Bay’s road record is the seventh-best in the league. Why?
“We do a great job throughout the week of trying to emulate with the speakers and making it a loud environment,” offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said last year. “Just communicating in the huddle, everyone hearing the call and just being able to communicate in a loud environment, I think is the biggest thing. Other than that, it’s just another game. You kind of try and just block all that stuff out. The noise of the crowd definitely is a factor.”
NFL Homefield Advantage
Here are the home records for teams since LaFleur took over as coach in 2019. The league median is 26-24 – or just one game over .500, so Green Bay has been considerably better. Road records are in parentheses.
Buffalo Bills: 39-11. (32-17 on the road.)
Green Bay Packers: 38-12. (29-21 on the road.)
Kansas City Chiefs: 38-12. (40-10 on the road.)
Baltimore Ravens: 34-16. (34-16 on the road.)
Dallas Cowboys: 32-18. (25-25 on the road.)
Miami Dolphins: 32-18. (20-30 on the road.)
Minnesota Vikings: 32-18. (27-23 on the road.)
Philadelphia Eagles: 32-17-1. (29-21 on the road.)
Pittsburgh Steelers: 32-17-1. (26-24 on the road.)
Cleveland Browns: 30-20. (16-34 on the road.)
Los Angeles Rams: 30-20. (26-24 on the road.)
San Francisco 49ers: 28-22. (32-18 on the road.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 28-22. (30-20 on the road.)
New Orleans Saints: 27-23. (28-22 on the road.)
Seattle Seahawks: 27-23. (31-19 on the road.)
Indianapolis Colts: 26-24. (22-27-1 on the road.)
Denver Broncos: 26-24. (16-34 on the road.)
Cincinnati Bengals: 25-24. (21-28-1 on the road.)
Tennessee Titans: 25-25. (23-27 on the road.)
Detroit Lions: 24-26. (23-25-2 on the road.)
Las Vegas Raiders: 24-26. (19-31 on the road.)
Los Angeles Chargers: 23-27. (24-26 on the road.)
Atlanta Falcons: 22-28. (18-32 on the road.)
New England Patriots: 22-28. (23-27 on the road.)
Chicago Bears: 21-29. (16-34 on the road.)
Houston Texans: 20-29-1. (21-29 on the road.)
Jacksonville Jaguars: 19-31. (13-37 on the road.)
New York Jets: 19-31. (13-37 on the road.)
Washington Commanders: 19-31. (22-27-1 on the road.)
Arizona Cardinals: 18-31-1. (22-28 on the road.)
New York Giants: 18-31-1. (14-36 on the road.)
Carolina Panthers: 16-34. (13-37 on the road.)
In a sign of the times, the Packers’ 38-12 home record over the past six seasons pales in comparison to their 30-2 mark under Mike Holmgren from 1995 through 1998.
The icy cold of the late season should be a huge advantage for the Packers. Indeed, they are 13-3 at home in December and January in the regular season, though they lost at home to the Bears last season. Their 2-2 home record in the playoffs includes losses in the 2020 NFC Championship game against the Buccaneers and the 2021 divisional game against the 49ers.
Road Warriors
It’s interesting to note that, during the LaFleur era, 12 teams are over .500 on the road and 12 teams have a better road record than home record. Among the teams that are better on the road are the Seattle Seahawks. So much for that infamous homefield advantage.
Why? Is crowd noise overrated? No, it’s not, but teams have become better at overcoming it.
“No, that’s a real thing. It definitely is a real thing,” LaFleur said before last year’s loss at Detroit. “But you’ve got to handle it. And I think you get accustomed to (it). Half your games are on the road, so you do get accustomed to going on a silent count. Obviously, it’s an advantage for a defense. No doubt about it. But, ultimately, it’s about the execution post-snap.”
For Green Bay, the home-road difference has been a bit more stark since Jordan Love took over as quarterback. For his career, Love is 10-6 as a starter at home and 8-8 on the road. At Lambeau, his completion percentage is 65.2 vs. 61.7 on the road and his passer rating is 95.8 at home and 94.3 on the road.
“You’ve just got to treat it like another game,” Love said before the game at Detroit. “Obviously, it’s going to be a loud environment, so you’ve got to be able to handle that, and I think it starts with the offense being able to get off on the snap count.
The Bottom Line
Given the powerhouse teams set to visit Lambeau this season, with the Lions, Vikings, Eagles, Commanders and Ravens qualifying for the playoffs last season and the Bengals just missing, Green Bay is going to need to play some of its best football in front of the home fans in order to make the playoffs.
That has to be true at the start of the season, with Detroit and Washington – two powerhouses – coming to Lambeau to get things rolling.
Last year, the Lions went 8-0 on the road, the Vikings and Eagles went 6-3, the Vikings went 6-2 and the Commanders went 5-3. On the other hand, the Panthers (2-6), Cardinals (2-6) and Bears (1-7) went a combined 5-19.