Rumors are swirling about Jonathan Kuminga potentially being traded to the Sacramento Kings. The former 7th pick in the 2021 NBA Draft has had a rocky start to his career in Golden State, with head coach Steve Kerr keeping him on a short leash in terms of minutes. The Kings have a long tradition of not having players with length and athleticism on the roster, so adding a 22-year-old of that cloth would be welcome. But would an expanded role for Kuminga in Sacramento allow him to blossom, or would it expose the flaws Kerr has long been cautious with?
Let’s take a look at what the numbers might suggest.
Limited Role With The Warriors
Kuminga has shown flashes of true promise and stretches of limited opportunity to start his career with the Warriors. His minutes have increased from 16.9 as a rookie to 26.3 in the 2023-24 season, only to drop back down to 24.3 last season. Kerr would never fully commit to having him on the floor is closing situations or in high-leverage moments. Kuminga himself has stated that he is irritated by being told to stay ready while also saying, “I already know that I’m ready.” When Kerr gave him the most run in 2023-24, Kuminga averaged 16.1 points.
In May, Kerr said: “I’ve been asked to win. And right now, he’s not a guy who I can say, I’m going to play 38 minutes with the roster we have, Steph, Jimmy, and Draymond, and put the puzzle together that way and expect to win.”
It also has been reported that Kuminga began looking for his shot over getting Steph Curry the ball and following the flow of the offense.
In last season’s playoff series against the Houston Rockets, Kuminga did not play in four of the seven games. (He went through warm-ups in one game then did not play because of an illness.) In the following series against the Minnesota Timberwolves, he played in all five games, including a 30-point performance.
Offensive Strengths
His greatest strength is the pressure he puts on the rim. He shot 72-74% at the rim the last two seasons (good for the 88th and 87th percentile), according to Cleaning The Glass. Last season, he drew a career-high 5 free throw attempts per game in 24 minutes played, indicating strong slashing skills. And as his usage rate climbed into the 92nd percentile, his turnover percentage improved to the highest of his career (67th percentile). He added 4.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game to go along with 15.3 points. These are indicators things could scale up in Sacramento.
His Per 36 minutes numbers last season were:
6 points
8 rebounds
3 assists
2 steals
45% from the field
30% from three (yikes)
2 turnovers
In the 2023-24 season in which he played the most minutes, the Warriors were a +2.0 in efficiency differential with him on the floor. In that season, he had 23 games of 20+ points in 74 games. Last season, he tallied three games with 30+ points and 11 games with 20+ points in 47 games.
Defensive Growth
Kuminga has reduced his foul percentage from 4.9% as a rookie to 3.1% last season. His offensive and defensive rebounding percentages have both been respectable the last two seasons, the same with his block and steal percentages. His block percentage was in the 15th percentile in his first season, compared to 63rd last season.
With Kuminga on the floor, Warriors opponents last season had a -2.2% drop in effective field goal percentage (84th percentile), according to Cleaning The Glass.
Would He Flourish In Sacramento?
This is the key question. And with the current roster of ball-dominant, high usage players, the answer is probably not. But things could change quickly, especially if Malik Monk is shipped out. Aside from the roster fit though, let’s consider his potential just with expanded minutes. The stats above show that he has kept turnovers down with higher usage, which is a good sign. He finishes around the rim at an elite level. He can roll, drive, score in transition and on putbacks. His athleticism and speed allows him to make up ground on the defensive side of the ball. The Kings have been in desperate need of players like this for a long time, not to mention younger and switchable talent at the forward spots with such a skillset.
Concerns About An Expanded Role
But will Kerr’s concerns be more prevalent with an expanded role? There are two potential paths with Kuminga: 1. A two-way game changer. 2. A role player who is a ball stopper and can’t space the floor. Spacing the floor is a real concern considering his shooting limitations, which we haven’t got into much yet. While he may be in the 87th percentile in field goal percentage at the rim, when he moves further out things get concerning. Here are his shooting averages from the other areas of the floor last season:
Short midrange: 37%
Long midrange: 27%
All midrange: 35%
Corner three: 28%
Non corner three: 33%
All threes: 31%
The majority of those were declines from the previous season. And his overall effective field goal percentage dropped from 56.3% in 2023-24 to 49.9% last season. That is a drop from the 68th percentile to the 20th percentile. His points per shot attempt last season was good for only the 21st percentile and his assist to usage ratio was a subpar 40th percentile, according to Cleaning The Glass.
The Warriors were 4.2 points worse and -3.5 in efficiency differential with him on the floor. This likely played a big factor into Kerr limiting his minutes, while trying to make things work with the Warriors aging stars. If he can’t improve his shot from the perimeter and embrace a more versatile role, there is a risk his inefficiencies could become amplified. Plus, if Kuminga thought he should look off Steph Curry, the best shooter of all time, and not accept a role on a team with multiple championships, personality could be something to consider should he join the Kings.
The Bottom Line
Kuminga is reportedly wanting $30 million or more a season.
Is it a risk?
Yeah.
Do the Kings need to take some risks to get better?
Yes. Kuminga is a 22-year-old upside prospect that a team like Sacramento should swing on. Because really, what have they got to lose?