Americans are generally outdoors loving people, that’s why the country is the birthplace of many sports – baseball, basketball, American football, softball, to name a few. The popularity of sports had a correlation with economics as well.
“At the turn of the century, the nation was on a sound economic basis and men had the opportunity to direct their attention away from the mechanics of life to the pleasures of living”, wrote James Thurber in the 1920s.
“Baseball assumed a new and enormous importance, prize-fighting reached its heyday; horse-racing became an absorption, bicycling a craze”, he adds.
But the American genius for gimmickry, marketing, staged events, and theatrics is best demonstrated in the unique invention of sports entertainment – professional wrestling. That’s the realm where macho strength meets gripping storylines and the thrill of a staged and controlled blood sport.
As a 90s kid, WWE and its colorful costumes, somersaults, finishing moves, dazzling strobe lights in the arena, and entry music, was a staple of my growing up days Television. POTUS Donald Trump also made a cameo appearance in a battle against the former wrestling promoter Vince Mcmahon, whose wife Linda is currently the United States Secretary of Education.
Kayfabe is a slang that defines the scripted and staged nature of chokeslams, and the entire soap opera-like rivalry. The shadowy world of geopolitics and international relations is replete with secrets, intrigues, false-flags, and diversions, but as the conflict between Israel & Iran has demonstrated, there are conflict kayfabes too.
Tehran’s airstrike on US military bases in Qatar, which otherwise would have been seen as a hostile act of provocation and escalation, defused the conflict. In an act of supreme irony, Donald Trump actually thanked the Iranians for informing DC prior to the attacks, so the troops could evacuate. There were no injuries or casualties on US personnel.
Farnaz Fassihi, the Iranian-American New York Times journalist, [posted on X,](https://x.com/farnazfassihi/status/1937209410046296226?t=I0OUnQPI0-C5UNdyijfO0A&s=19) that the strike was well coordinated between the Qatari and Iranian authorities, and it gave Iran a much needed off-ramp.
The Nobel aspirant Don, the ‘Peacemaker’, was quick to declare that a ceasefire has been reached. Netanyahu, who was all fire & brimstone till a few days back, insisting on regime change, ties that date to Cyrus the Great, and inciting Iranian women to take to the streets and protest against the regime, did a complete volte face.
As many analysts have pointed out, targeted killings and special operations of the ‘Rise & Kill first’ type, spy networks, sleeper cells, guided precision strikes, and combining human intelligence and technology, is the forte of Israel.
Tel Aviv is unsuited to protracted wars of attrition, despite the compulsory draft, a formidable domestic arms industry, and a very impressive military buildup. There are two fundamental reasons for this: Iran has fought a grinding trench war with Iraq that lasted close to a decade in the 1980s.
The use of child soldiers and teenagers as mine sweepers and suicide bombers was common on both the Iranian and Iraqi side. On the contrary, Israel hasn’t fought a full-fledged war that lasted for more than a few months.
The USA has a methodology for assessing military capability through DOTMLPF( Doctrine, Organization, Training, Material, Leadership, Personnel, and Facilities). In many countries, doctrine & organization are fused together in the form of indoctrination and the religious pull of martyrdom, where Iran has an edge over Israel.
Economic considerations are also important. The cost of the war in Gaza and Iran combined is estimated to run north of $400 Billion, while Israel’s GDP is around $550 Billion.
Though the markets in Tel Aviv, or the benchmark Tel Aviv 125 Index, is at an all time high. This is mainly due to the prevailing market sentiment that the US stands firmly in support of Israel.
However, intensified conflict would have led to crude oil prices shooting through the roof, and crossing $130, adding to inflationary pressures, bearish sentiment, reduced discretionary spending, and eventually recession. The exuberance of the market would have then changed to gloom.
After Iran’s strike on US bases in Qatar, global oil prices plunged by 13%. John Authers, the Bloomberg columnist, termed it _‘one of the strangest days of trading oil in history’._
With the recent fracking and shale oil boom, the US has transformed itself from a net importer of oil & gas to a net exporter. This has insured Washington against detrimental supply side effects such as the 1973 OPEC embargo in the wake of the Yom Kippur War.
Oil prices more than quadrupled that year in a matter of days, and long queues at gasoline pumps was a common sight in the US.
Washington has cut off its dependency on oil imports, however the US dollar is still the sole reserve currency for global oil & gas trade. The petrodollar system and subsequent petrodollar recycling are pillars of modern energy economics.
With China and Russia’s heavy involvement and stakes in Iran, Tehran was too big a gamble to risk the shocks to the US dollar and the broader markets, even though American oil companies as well as defence contracts would have made a killing.
Beijing is the biggest importer of Iranian crude, with a 25 year cooperation agreement to ensure supply at cheap rates. Moscow, which has a comprehensive strategic partnership with Tehran, imports Iranian drones for its War with Ukraine. The fall of the Ayatollah regime would be a big setback for the Kremlin and the People’s Palace both.
The Trump brokered truce most probably has a backchannel Russia or China hand too. Just a few days back, the Iranian foreign minister flew to Moscow to meet Putin. More importantly, it comes on the same day when Russia, China, and Pakistan announced their intent to sponsor a United Nations Security Council resolution calling for ‘immediate and unconditional’ ceasefire.
While it remains to be seen whether the ceasefire lasts or not, Trump has outtrumped everyone with this move.
Netanyahu has announced Mission Accomplished with the destruction of Natanz, and the deepening US partnership with bunker buster detonation in Fordow. Iran has got the off-ramp and an exit route to dial down, while also claiming a victory.
Trump got to play the Peacemaker and the Statesman. Other than the government of Pakistan, a Republican senator from Georgia has also officially nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize. The latest season of the Tehran Kayfabe had everything for all sides.