AMES — There are 50 days until Iowa State begins its season in Dublin, Ireland against Kansas State.
FanDuel sportsbook lists ISU's over/under for regular-season wins in 2025 at 7.5. That is tied for the fourth-highest total in the Big 12. Arizona State, Kansas State and Texas Tech are listed at 8.5. Three other teams — Baylor, BYU, Kansas and Utah — are listed at 7.5.
There are a couple historical reasons I picked ISU to finish the season under its projected wins total. The Cyclones were 5-1 in one-score games last season, a tough mark to replicate, and the Big 12 is a conference of parody. The last team to appear in the Big 12 Championship Game two consecutive seasons is Oklahoma in 2019 and 2020.
On the field, ISU will need to replace three players picked in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft — second-round pick Jayden Higgins (receiver), and third-round picks Jaylin Noel (receiver) and Darien Porter (defensive back). Higgins and Noel combined for 66.4% of ISU's total receiving yards last season. Even with the loss of Porter, ISU's defense should be improved, considering the onslaught of injuries ISU navigated last season.
With ISU's season bearing down, let's put pen to paper and pick the wins and losses.
Aug. 23 vs Kansas State (Dublin)
It feels like anything can happen in a week zero college football game in Ireland. Last season, Georgia Tech upset No. 10 Florida State 24-21 in the Aer Lingus Classic. In 2023, Notre Dame stomped Navy 42-3.
In a game where weirdness should be expected, I'm taking the team with more continuity in its passing game. KSU returns its quarterback Avery Johnson and leading receiver Jayce Brown. ISU transfer receivers Xavier Townsend and Chase Sowell should both contribute this season, but it may take at least a week to get going.
Projection: Loss
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Aug. 30 vs. South Dakota
This will be tough. The South Dakota Coyotes finished 11-3 last season and reached the semifinals of the FCS playoffs. Immediately after the game against Kansas State, ISU will board a plane back to Iowa to prepare for this game.
It may not be easy — think ISU's uncomfortable 21-3 win against North Dakota last season — but the Cyclones have the talent to win.
Projection: Win
Sept. 6 vs Iowa
After two challenging weeks, the Cyclones will have to stare down their biggest rival.
ISU fans probably know the Cyclones haven't won Cy-Hawk in Jack Trice Stadium since 2011 and Iowa has won seven of the past 10 matchups. I don't think that history matters much to junior quarterback Rocco Becht, who is 1-1 against the Hawks.
What does matter is Iowa will be coming off an easy week one game against Albany and the Cyclones could be a little more battered.
Prediction: Loss
Sept. 13 @ Arkansas State
The Cyclones beat Arkansas State 52-7 last year. I'll give the Red Wolves a chance to score 10 points in 2025 because the matchup is in Jonesboro.
Prediction: Win
Sept. 27 vs Arizona
Arizona was one of the biggest disappointments in the Big 12 last season. The Wildcats went into the season with a solid quarterback/receiver combination of Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan, but finished with the second-worst offense in the conference.
Arizona has a new offensive coordinator Seth Doege to pair with Fifita, but losing McMillan, the No. 8 overall pick in the NFL Draft, still leaves the Arizona offense with lots to figure out.
Prediction: Win
Oct. 4 @ Cincinnati
ISU welcomed former assistant coach Tyson Veidt back to Ames last season. Campbell got the better of his old friend as the Cyclones scored 34 points.
This year, ISU will have to go into Cincinnati, a place they won 30-10 at in 2023.
Prediction: Win
Oct. 11 @ Colorado
After a 15-year hiatus, Iowa State will dust off its rivalry with Colorado in Boulder. Colorado owns a historical 49-15-1 edge in the matchup, but this isn't your father's Colorado, or even the same Colorado as last season.
The Buffaloes lost Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter and quarterback Shedeur Sanders, players who helped cover up for the worst rushing offense in college football (2.48 yards per rush) and bad offensive line play.
Projection: Win
Oct. 25 vs BYU (Homecoming)
On paper, this game got much easier for the Cyclones. This week, news broke BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff is facing a seven game suspension for breaking the school's honor code. Retzlaff is expected to transfer to another major college football team, leaving BYU scrambling for a starting quarterback.
Deseret News reports the starting job is basically a two-man race between redshirt sophomore McCae Hillstead, a Utah State transfer, and redshirt junior Treyson Bourguet, a transfer from Western Michigan. None of those are as scary of a matchup as Retzlaff was.
Prediction: Win
Nov. 1 vs. Arizona State
Remember what happened in the Big 12 Championship game? I wouldn't blame Cyclone fans for trying to put ASU's 45-19 trouncing out of their memories.
Although the Sun Devils lost running back Cam Skattebo, a player ISU had no answers for, they return quarterback Sam Leavitt and star receiver Jordyn Tyson (who didn't even play in the Big 12 Championship).
Prediction: Loss
Nov. 8 @ TCU
Finishing the most brutal stretch of ISU's schedule is a sneaky road game in Forth Worth. The Cyclones will be coming off games against teams that all tied for first in the Big 12 last season and will be forced to go pick up a win in the dog days of the season on the road.
The Horned Frogs figured out some of their defensive challenges last season, winning six of the last seven games in 2024. Josh Hoover returns as TCU's quarterback. He threw for the second-most yards in the Big 12 last season and leads an offense capable of jumping up and biting any team it plays.
Prediction: Loss
Nov. 22 vs Kansas
Did the Jayhawks score 45 points on ISU last season because their roster was better or because they caught ISU in the peak of its defensive injury woes? I guess we'll find out this year.
The New Orleans Saints drafted KU running back Devin Neal in the sixth round, so that's one player the Cyclones won't have to worry about, but there's something about the result last season that's hard to shake.
Prediction: Loss
Nov. 29 @ Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State should be better than it was last season, because it can't get any worse. OSU is coming off its first winless Big 12 season under coach Mike Gundy.
OSU has quarterback questions, coaching questions and lots of unknowns. ISU has a lot to be thankful for regarding this Thanksgiving week matchup.
Prediction: Win
Final prediction: 7-5
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Iowa State running back Carson Hansen (26) celebrates after a 2-yard touchdown run during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Cincinnati, Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in Ames, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall) Charlie Neibergall
Ben Hutchens is an Iowa State University beat writer for the Lee Enterprises network. Follow him on X or send him an email at Ben.Hutchens@lee.net.
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