Wholesale changes were made to the Jacksonville Jaguars front office and sidelines this offseason, suggesting this team may be in full rebuild mode. Unlike the beginning of the 2023 season when they were pegged as AFC South favourites and future Super Bowl contenders, that is far from the case heading into 2025.
The personnel and staff may have changed dramatically, and there are still plenty of young players who need time to develop. For that reason, this could be yet another unpredictable season for the Jags, not the first time fans have heard that before.
WIth that in mind, here are three reasons they’ll win the AFC South, followed by two reasons they won’t.
1. Led by Brian Thomas Jr., the Jaguars offense is loaded with weapons
Bhayshul Tuten
Jacksonville Jaguars Mandatory Minicamp | Logan Bowles/GettyImages
If Trevor Lawrence is healthy and can’t get it done with the talent around him in the huddle this year, then it may be fair to call the former Clemson quarterback a bust. Brian Thomas Jr. is a legit marquee receiver. Plus, he’s got a Heisman Trophy winner in Travis Hunter and three running backs capable of taking over a game in Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby, and Bhayshul Tuten, with the latter touted as the rookie that’ll make the biggest impact in the NFL this upcoming season.
Tuten's balance of power and explosiveness will come in handy for a team that may have a three-headed monster in the backfield.
I’m a fan of Bhayshul Tuten’s balance and elite explosiveness.
Some examples below of his balance as a runner along with his usage in the Hokies zone-blocking scheme that is similar to what Liam Coen will do with the #Jaguars run game. pic.twitter.com/1yUsfBH59v
— Jared Feinberg (@JRodNFLDraft) June 18, 2025
Not only are there plenty of offensive threats, but James Gladstone signed some hogs up front that can provide Lawrence the time he needs to find his open targets. Lawrence has shown that when he has an extra second or so, he can make big plays. If the offense lives up to its potential, it can contend for the division.
2. Travis Hunter is the real deal and will make an immediate impact for the Jaguars
Travis Hunter
Jacksonville Jaguars Mandatory Minicamp | Logan Bowles/GettyImages
How well Travis Hunter holds up physically on both sides of the football may very well determine how this team fares as well. He was an elite cover man and receiver in college and learned from a guy who played various positions on the field. Deion “Prime Time” Sanders was not just one of the best cornerbacks in NFL history, but he also was explosive in returning kicks.
While he didn’t run wide receiver routes, Sanders knows better than most the energy and intelligence it takes to play several positions and also play two sports at a high level. If he says Hunter can do both in the NFL, then who are we to second-guess the word of a man who was an elite football and baseball player, and has a strong coaching resume as well?
We are officially EIGHT weeks away - EIGHT! - from Colorado football!
To celebrate, here is a highlight of Travis Hunter, turning a 5-yard out into a 40-yard TD.
Season CANNOT GET HERE FAST ENOUGH 🦬🦬pic.twitter.com/6kzr6UEkTP
— TorresontheBuffs (@TorresOnCU) July 5, 2025
Hunter is a game-changer who has plenty of expectations on his shoulders, but he was coached by a man in Sanders who always pushed players past their limits. Sure, Sanders won’t be on the field helping him, but having someone with first-hand knowledge from someone who seemed to play all the time will surely allow Hunter to know how to get his body in the right physical condition to handle this.
3. The AFC South is wide open
C.J. Stroud
AFC Divisional Playoffs: Houston Texans v Kansas City Chiefs | Jamie Squire/GettyImages
While the Jags aren’t the team to beat in this division they aren’t exactly behind the pack by leaps and bounds. They were 4-13 and third place last year. That said, 10 of their losses were by a single score, with five being against playoff teams, including a 28-23 loss to the future Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.
Sure the Tennessee Titans are expected to be better with Cam Ward, but there are plenty of question marks about the rest of the team. You can also say that about the Indianapolis Colts who aside from Jonathan Taylor are rather ordinary offensively and didn’t make massive improvements defensively.
The Houston Texans are the team to beat, but after what happened in that game where Lawrence was grounded for the season, you can bet the Jaguars will have a chip on their shoulder to beat them.
Dirtiest hit all season. Even if he didn't "lead with the helmet", he intentionally hit the defenseless and sliding Trevor Lawrence into the ground... Prayers up for Trevor 🙏pic.twitter.com/FdQeVjJ6Pg
— Malcolm Redd (@MALCOLMREDD) December 1, 2024
C.J. Stroud is the best player in this division, but statistically speaking, he’s not been that much better than Lawrence was early in his career.
Let us start a dialogue 🧠
Trevor Lawrence and CJ Stroud's first two seasons in the same offense #Jaguars #Texans pic.twitter.com/4a7QNA19Hp
— 𝕋𝕣𝕒𝕧𝕚𝕤 🅓. ℍ𝕠𝕝𝕞𝕖𝕤 (@TravisDHolmes) July 2, 2025
The Jags can match up with every team in this division and have just as much talent if not more across the board than everyone in the AFC South, so long as Liam Coen can find a way to bring it all together. If their game changers can do exactly that, those narrow losses from 2024 may go their way this year.
While there are compelling cases for them to win the division, it is still the Jaguars, and things, as we’ve seen in the past, don’t always go as the team had hoped. Thus, here are two reasons they won't win the AFC South.
1. The Jaguars may lack pressure defensively in 2025
Maason Smith
Jacksonville Jaguars Mandatory Minicamp | Logan Bowles/GettyImages
Not much went right defensively for Jacksonville with Ryan Nielsen as coordinator. That was a surprise given his success with the Falcons and how highly rated he was when taking over from Mike Caldwell.
The Jags got the fifth-fewest sacks in the NFL (34) and gave opposing quarterbacks far too much time in the pocket. Nielsen promised to bring the heat often but his team couldn’t deliver. There are still questions on the D-line heading into 2025 with Anthony Campanile at the controls. Travon Walker’s been solid but not necessarily the elite defensive player that saw him go No. 1 in the 2022 draft. Arik Armstead’s ability to stay healthy is a concern.
Maason Smith seemed to make strides in 2024, but it’s difficult to tell if he’s an elite defensive player, while Dawaune Smoot is back and Jordan Jefferson is here as well, two solid players, but solid might not be good enough.
A lil Maason Smith for the timeline.
pic.twitter.com/3OZuwKiVQS
— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) March 18, 2025
2. The Jaguars star players can't live up to expectations
Blake Bortles
Jacksonville Jaguars v Houston Texans | Bob Levey/GettyImages
How often have the Jaguars been loaded with talent but couldn’t live up to the hype? It’s a tale seemingly as old as time for this team. Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert, Justin Blackmon, and Derrick Harvey are just a few examples of players touted as game-changers who rarely lived up to expectations.
It’s possible the likes of Hunter, Maason Smith, Bhayshul Tuten, Etienne, Lawrence, and co. won’t be able to get to the level needed. There’s still some belief in Jacksonville that things can turn around, but recent history has taught fans to not get too far ahead of themselves.
Some of those names, along with Walker and Josh Hines-Allen, have been a part of a losing culture for the most part, and it’s easy to get comfortable in that, which could be disastrous for Coen and the Jaguars team.
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