Results matter. Or, at least they should. And by the results the Big Ten has plenty about which it can boast.
National champions in 2023 and 2024. Two teams in the College Football Playoff semifinals in 2024. Four teams overall in the CFP. Eleven picks in the first round of the NFL Draft, accounting for 34.3% of the selections.
If there’s one area where the league struggles to crow, it’s in Heisman Trophy winners. In the 21st Century, the Big Ten has produced just one Heisman, Ohio State’s Troy Smith in 2006. Oklahoma itself has four since 2000. Lincoln Riley himself has coached four.
The last time a Big Ten player finished second? It’s more recently than you think, but it’s telling nonetheless that you probably can’t guess it.
Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson in 2021, a distant second to winner Bryce Young.
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There’s a reason for the shift away from Big Ten winners: Since 2010, only one running back, Alabama’s Derrick Henry in 2015, has won the award. Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor, a spectacular back who rushed for a stupendous 6,174 yards in three years, never even got invited to the New York ceremony. Saquon Barkley had 2,329 all-purpose yards in 2017…and finished fourth.
The number of electors hasn’t changed much over the last 25 years, so the voting pool hasn’t been. The trend toward quarterbacks just hasn’t favored the Big Ten.
We begin the Beach Read series suggesting that’s about to change.
It may have already changed when the West Coast four joined the league. But over the next three-to-five years, a combination of rising league profile, high school recruiting and the transfer portal could bring the Big Ten into a golden age of quarterback play. Not a guarantee. A decent bet.
Here’s why.
Five-star infusion: It’s possible, even likely, that six teams will have five-star starting quarterbacks when the season begins. Drew Allar (Penn State), Dylan Raiola (Nebraska), Julian Sayin (Ohio State), Dante Moore (Oregon), Nico Iamaleava (UCLA) and Bryce Underwood (Michigan) were each standouts in their respective recruiting classes, and while service ratings aren’t a perfect barometer of success, a full third of the league has a prized arm talent running the show. Allar enters his final season of eligibility as top-five Heisman Trophy candidate. Only Underwood, just arriving in Ann Arbor, has never taken a collegiate snap; Raiola, Moore and Iamaleava have all started multiple games.
More young talent: Former four star recruits like Demond Williams (Washington), Aidan Chiles (Michigan State) and Mailk Washington (Maryland)
Portal plan: A fluke hand injury suffered against Nebraska derailed the Heisman campaign of Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke — who still threw for 3,042 yards 29 touchdowns last season, but Rourke’s immediate success further underlined what might be possible for his successor, Fernando Mendoza, who three for 3,004 yards last season at California.
Or perhaps it gives shapes to what Billy Edwards can do at Wisconsin after for 2,881 yards and 15 touchdowns at Maryland. Or what Preston Stone can do at Northwestern after a solid career at SMU. Or how Malachi Singleton might perform at Purdue after strong spot duty at Arkansas. Or what Iowa’s Marc Gronowski can do after throwing for more than 10,000 yards over four seasons at South Dakota State before he chose to spend his final year of eligibility at Iowa. (Nobody’s predicting a redux of Brad Banks — who finished second in the 2002 Heisman balloting — just yet.).
Already, Jayden Maiava gave USC’s offense a different dynamic when he took over the Trojans’ offense in November last season. Maiava joined the team after a standout year at UNLV in 2023.
So what does a reasonable current ranking of Big Ten quarterbacks look like?
Allar, by virtue of his track record and experience, zooms to the top of that list like Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel did in 2024. And Illinois’ Luke Altmyer, who led his team to a 10-3 season, generally gets the No. 2 spot even as he loses some of the weapons he had in 2024.
No. 3 is a debate.
247Sports says it’s Sayin, largely because he has the nation’s best cast of receivers, including Jeremiah Smith.
USA Today says it’s Raiola, who broke freshman records at NU and started every game as Sayin watched Will Howard lead Ohio State to a national title.
Sports Illustrated says it’s Altmyer because Moore, who completed 53.5% of his passes during one season at UCLA, is No. 2.
Here’s another take on the top seven:
Drew Allar, Penn State
The obvious pick for No. 1, given his performance, the strength of his team and upgrades PSU had at the wideout spot.
He’ll have an efficient season.
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
IU plucks an experienced quarterback from Cal who, so long as he’s healthy, comes into a Hoosier offense primed to be explosive for a second straight year.
Indiana isn’t necessarily a CFP contender, but it’s a top-25 team and Mendoza’s skillset fits the franchise, so to speak.
Dylan Raiola, Nebraska
NU’s new offensive coordinator, the high octane, hands on Dana Holgorsen, will be a good match for Raiola.
Holgorsen will challenge Raiola, aim to get him in an early rhythm, and provide playcalls with better answers.
Luke Altmyer, Illinois
Good player, cagey, gamer, who lost receiver Pat Bryant to the NFL.
It’ll matter.
Bryant, a third round pick by the Broncos, was very good.
Jayden Maiava, USC
To watch both simply the game of football — recruiting rankings aside — you wouldn’t put Moore about Maiava in terms of athleticism or skillset.
Maiava can be mistake-prone.
If he works those wrinkles out, he’s in for a big year in Los Angeles.
Julian Sayin, Ohio State
A lot to like on limited film, but it typically takes any new starter a bit of time to acclimate.
Sayin will put up numbers because his receivers get open, but one has to peer behind the statistical performance to some degree.
Can he run out of trouble? Can he deliver a deep ball? Can he lead — which Howard did?
Marc Gronowski, Iowa
If he were taking over Oregon’s offense, he’d be top five on most lists, and if Iowa hadn’t extended a generous NIL package, he’d probably be in a NFL training camp.
The Hawkeyes have a schedule that requires taking the training wheels off the offense.
You’ll see the passing game get a boost.
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