Alright Bears fans, NFL sickos, and quarterback nerds — buckle the hell up. We’re about to dive into the wild ride that was Caleb Williams’ rookie season and make the case for why Year 2 under Ben Johnson could turn him from chaotic mess to certified problem. But we’re not sugarcoating anything. Caleb was rough last year. Like, “bottom-five in basically every meaningful stat” rough. But if you look close — past the chaos, the sacks, and the missed slants — there’s still a quarterback with legit superstar tools.
So let’s rip it open, autopsy style: what went wrong, what (surprisingly) went right, and why Bears fans should still be cautiously hyped for 2025.
The Rookie Season: A Dumpster Fire, But Not a Total Loss
Let’s not pretend. Caleb’s rookie season was brutal. He ranked 31st out of 36 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per dropback. Even worse? He was 35th in success rate, per TruMedia. That’s basement-tier stuff.
But the numbers only tell half the story. Context matters — and Caleb was dropped into a Bears offense that looked like it was built by drunk toddlers. The scheme was archaic, the protection was inconsistent, and the route concepts were a damn mess.
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Per Next Gen Stats, Caleb led the league in unblocked sacks and extended sacks (those he held onto the ball too long). That’s not just bad luck — it’s systemic failure. Either he was getting blitzed out of his cleats, or he was indecisively hanging in a collapsing pocket, waiting for something to open up that never did.
Passing and Rushing Efficiencies by EPA/play for the 2024 NFL Season, per rbsdm.com.
Confidence Crisis: The Caleb Conundrum
This dude was the human version of “Be quick, but don’t hurry” — except he either wasn’t quick enough, or he was hurrying everything. His processing often looked like a panic attack. Either he locked onto a read and waited too long, or he bailed and rifled a checkdown in 1.8 seconds. There was no rhythm, no flow, no plan B.
And this is what happens when a guy who’s always been Superman is suddenly surrounded by chaos. No structure. No chemistry. No coaching clarity. He went from freelancing at USC — where every play was a highlight reel audition — to being asked to run a broken system in real-time at warp speed.
The result? Zero confidence. Zero rhythm. Zero chance.
The Mechanics Are a Wreck, and That’s Fixable
This is where it gets fascinating. Caleb Williams’ biggest issue wasn’t his arm strength or athleticism — it was his damn footwork. The kid’s mechanics were straight-up chaotic. Half the time he looked like he was throwing off a trampoline. His front leg would lock up, killing his base. Or he’d drift backwards and spike the ball like he was aiming for the turf.
Watch the Panthers game, third-and-five: DJ Moore’s wide open on a simple slant. Williams reads it correctly, steps up… and fires it at his ankles. Why? Because his front foot was misaligned and his body was falling away like he was trying to fade away in a rec league game.
But here’s the good news: Mechanics can be fixed. With a real coach. With reps. With trust. Jared Goff turned his career around in Detroit by mastering timing and footwork. Caleb can do the same if he actually buys into Ben Johnson’s structure.
There Were Flashes, And They Were Filthy
Before we bury this dude, let’s not ignore the good. Because when Caleb clicked, it was ridiculous. That throw to Keenan Allen in the second Lions game? Rolling left, pocket collapsing, snaps his hips and rips a laser between two zones. That’s a throw maybe 5 QBs in the world can make.
His pocket movement — when it wasn’t rushed — was low-key impressive. Subtle hops, smart slides, the ability to feel edge pressure without panicking. In those rare moments when he actually trusted the pocket, he looked like the guy we saw dominate college football.
Two-minute drills? He was money. Looser. Freer. Less robotic. That late drive against Minnesota to set up the tying field goal? He diced them up like he was back at USC. That’s what a confident Caleb looks like. And it’s still in there.
Why Ben Johnson Changes Everything
The entire damn hope for Year 2 rests on this name: Ben Johnson.
This guy turned Jared Goff — JARED. GOFF. — into a top-10 QB. Not because Goff suddenly got faster or smarter, but because Johnson tailored the offense to what Goff does well. He emphasized rhythm throws, clean pockets, high-percentage concepts that kept the ball moving and the QB confident.
Now take that same philosophy and apply it to a QB with a cannon arm and freaky mobility. If Johnson can get Caleb to just execute the damn basics — get to the top of his drop, fire on rhythm, keep his footwork clean — then the playmaker stuff will take care of itself.
Also, Johnson doesn’t just scheme throw — he builds clarity into the system. Caleb won’t be guessing what Plan B is. He’ll know it. And once a QB knows what his outs are, the confidence floods back.
Top 5 Offenses by EPA/Play for the 2024 NFL Season, per Sumer Sports.
What Has to Improve — And What Probably Will
Let’s get granular:
In-rhythm throws: Caleb ranked 32nd out of 41 QBs in grade on rhythm throws (PFF). That HAS to get better.
Accuracy beyond five yards: He was bottom three in EPA and completion % on throws 5+ yards downfield (PFF).
Mechanics on layups: Slants, outs, curls — he missed far too many basic-ass throws that should be automatic.
Confidence: The most important variable. If he trusts the system and himself, the floor rises fast.
None of this is asking for magic. It’s all fundamentals. The superpowers will show up when the foundation is solid.
Final Verdict
Let’s not crown the man yet. Caleb still has real flaws. He may never be Joe Burrow-level surgical. But if Ben Johnson does his job, and if Caleb buys in? He could easily settle somewhere between 2023 Jared Goff and peak Kyler Murray.
That’s a damn good quarterback. That’s a top-12 guy. That’s a franchise QB you can build with.
So yeah, the rookie year was ugly. But don’t let that drown out the bigger truth:
Caleb Williams is too talented to fail in a real offense.
If this kid flops under Ben Johnson? Fine. Throw him to the bust bin. But if he clicks — and all signs say he just might — you’re looking at one of the nastiest Year 2 jumps we’ve seen in a while.
So buckle up, Chicago. Shit’s about to get real.