Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold is one of the NFL’s biggest mysteries heading into the 2025 season.
Insider on Seahawks: Why Macdonald’s defensive scheme stands out
After a disappointing first six years in the league, the former No. 3 overall draft pick resurrected his career with a breakout Pro Bowl campaign last fall. He led the Minnesota Vikings to a 14-3 regular season and five game-winning drives, while finishing fifth in the league in both passing yardage and touchdown passes.
However, the luster of Darnold’s breakthrough came crashing down over the final two games. With the NFC’s top seed on the line in Week 18, he went just 18-of-41 passing for 166 yards in a blowout loss to the Detroit Lions. And the following week, he threw an interception, took nine sacks and lost a costly fumble during a blowout NFC wild-card playoff loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
The 27-year-old Darnold is now in Seattle, where he has a chance to prove that the first 16 games of last season weren’t a one-hit wonder.
Will Darnold continue to rewrite his career narrative with another strong year? Or will he fall back down to earth?
Here’s what three NFL analysts said about Darnold during recent appearances on Seattle Sports’ Bump and Stacy.
‘We could see anything’
The 33rd Team’s Sam Monson thinks there’s a very wide range of potential outcomes for Darnold this fall.
“The first 16 games of last season, Sam Darnold was (at a) Pro Bowl, borderline All-Pro level of play – a genuinely fantastic, completely different player from anything we’d seen in his NFL career thus far,” Monson said. “And then the final two weeks was a complete and total disintegration and it was all the way back to Sam Darnold seeing ghosts.
“So we could see anything (this) year. We could see him back up to the Pro Bowl/All-Pro-level Darnold. We could see him go completely in the tank again and be back to being the New York Jets’ top pick that was ultimately cast aside and became a journeyman. Or really anything in the middle – inconsistent play week to week, or just a sort of middle ground where he’s good but not great.”
Back down to earth
The Athletic’s Derrik Klassen, who co-hosts The Athletic Football Show, doesn’t think Darnold will replicate his level of play from last season.
Klassen pointed to the favorable situation Darnold had last year in Minnesota, where he had the benefit of an elite offensive-minded head coach in Kevin O’Connell and an array of weapons that included superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson, talented wideout Jordan Addison and two-time Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson.
“He’s a fascinating quarterback, because we’ve seen one-off seasons before,” Klassen said. “Do we think it’s going to be the way that 2022 Geno Smith felt, where it’s actually something that he can sustain? Or is it going to be something more like Case Keenum in 2017 with the Vikings?
“And I probably lean a little bit more toward Case Keenum, unfortunately, just because I think, to me, we’re coming from Sam Darnold playing in Minnesota – which was arguably one of the best supporting casts that you could possibly play with when it comes to play caller (and) having the best wide receiver in the league.
“Now he’s stepping into Seattle where, outside of the tackle duo when they’re healthy, is definitely a step down in (that) you have more of a mystery at play-calling and you don’t have a No. 1 receiver quite as good as Jefferson. So I would expect him to come down to earth just a little bit.”
Somewhere in the middle
FTN Fantasy’s Aaron Schatz doesn’t think Darnold will revert all the way back to his early-career struggles, when he went 13-25 over his first three seasons as a starter with the New York Jets. And he thinks new Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is a decent OC for Darnold.
But like Klassen, Schatz thinks a less favorable supporting cast in Seattle will prevent Darnold from having another Pro Bowl-level campaign.
“I think that we will look back and see last year as a little bit of an outlier in his career, but that he also is nowhere near as bad as he looked when he was with the Jets,” Schatz said. “And while he doesn’t have the track record of Kevin O’Connell as far as boosting quarterbacks, I think that Kubiak is a good offensive coordinator. What he did at the beginning of (last) year (as New Orleans’ OC) before everybody got hurt for the Saints was good.
“I think the bigger issue for Darnold is that he goes from having maybe the best receiver in the game and a very good wide receiver No. 2 and a very good tight end to, you know, some talent, but nothing like Justin Jefferson.”
Listen to the full conversations with The 33rd Team’s Sam Monson, The Athletic’s Derrik Klassen and FTN Fantasy’s Aaron Schatz in the audio players throughout this story. Tune in to Bump and Stacy weekdays from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.
Seattle Seahawks news and analysis
• Rost: A potential surprise standout on Seattle Seahawks’ defense
• Bump: Seattle Seahawks RB Kenny McIntosh could shine under new OC
• Buy or Sell: Will Sam Darnold take less sacks than Geno Smith?
• Insider: One final offseason move the Seattle Seahawks should make
• Do Seattle Seahawks have enough in new-look WR room? Insider weighs in