We’re four years away from the NFL’s highly anticipated media rights opt-out.
Reports suggest that the league is a “virtual lock” to exercise its option. And why wouldn’t it? The NFL is far and away the most valuable programming in America. And after the NBA recently secured its 11-year, $76 billion media rights agreements, the NFL’s current deals, which were signed in 2021 and began in 2023, are starting to look undervalued. Look no further than the fact that NBC will be paying more per year for its upcoming NBA rights than it will for Sunday Night Football, and it’s easy to understand why the NFL is chomping at the bit to negotiate some new broadcast agreements.
Assuming the NFL does, in fact, choose to exit its current set of deals, 2030 will be the first season in which new broadcast arrangements are in place. A lot can and will change in the five years between now and then, but the NFL hasn’t been all that coy about where things are going.
By 2030, there will almost certainly be an 18th regular season game, making way for a full season package of international games that the league can sell. The NFL also isn’t being shy about its transition to streaming, adding more and more exclusive streaming windows every year. So it’s safe to assume two things for the next deals: more international games and more streaming.
But how will everything else be divvied up? The interest from streamers is much greater now than when the league reached its current set of deals in 2021. Netflix and YouTube have gotten in the mix. But traditional broadcasters like Fox and CBS will be even more desperate to keep NFL programming than they were just a few years ago. It’s not an exaggeration to say the NFL is the very thing keeping Fox and CBS alive, and they won’t simply lay down and die when it’s time to renegotiate. They’ll be emptying their pockets as a matter of survival.
So the NFL, as usual, finds itself in a very enviable position. How will the league capitalize on what’s sure to be the most lucrative media rights negotiation in history? Here’s how we here at Awful Announcing see it playing out:
Thursday Night Football: Amazon/Prime Video
In one of the few deals that might look similar to now, Thursday Night Football will remain on Prime Video. Amazon has poured significant resources into making its weekly NFL broadcast feel premium, and it has worked. The league has been generous to the streamer, giving Prime Video a much more attractive slate of games than when the package previously aired on Fox and NFL Network. The on-site studio team makes each game feel big, and Amazon must be very pleased with where the ratings have trended.
In Year 3 exclusively airing the package, Thursday Night Football on Prime Video attracted audiences on-par with what Fox was drawing in its final year broadcasting the package on linear television. And given that Prime Video is one of the most wide-reaching streaming services out there, the NFL should have no hesitation keeping this package as-is.
But this won’t be the last you hear from Amazon come 2030. They’ll want more.
NFL International Series: YouTube
With the expansion to an 18th regular season game, the NFL will finally get its wish of a full, 16-game international schedule. Each team will travel abroad once per year, and those games will be sold as its own media rights package. YouTube is the frontrunner to land these games for a number of reasons.
For one, YouTube will be airing this year’s NFL Brazil game in Week 1. It’s the first time an NFL game will air exclusively on YouTube. And assuming YouTube paid a similar price as Peacock did for the game last year, over $100 million, the Google-owned video giant seems serious about forming a relationship with the NFL.
But the international series games going to YouTube makes sense for other reasons as well. YouTube provides flexibility that linear networks, or even other streamers, cannot. Imagine a 16-game international schedule. Some games will be played in Europe, some in Asia, some in South America, and some maybe even in Australia. Kickoff times will vary widely. Perhaps games in Europe and Asia will kickoff on Sunday mornings, while South American games will be played on Friday nights. Like other streamers, YouTube is not beholden to a programming schedule. There aren’t affiliates wanting to air local news or Meet the Press. YouTube can stream a game anytime, anywhere, with no issue.
But YouTube also offers something other streaming services cannot. It’s free. That key distinction could be the very thing that allows the NFL to skirt its broadcast restrictions and start airing games on nights of the week it currently cannot, like Fridays.
Google clearly has an interest in a partnership with the NFL. YouTube TV, of course, is the home of NFL Sunday Ticket. But until this season, the platform hadn’t aired its own game. That will change in a big way come 2030.
Sunday afternoon “A” package: Netflix and Amazon
Here’s where things are going to get a bit wonky and look much different from the current status quo. The NFL will look to split its Sunday afternoon games, delineating between “A” games and “B” games. Let me explain.
It’s no secret that Sunday afternoons are still the most desirable NFL windows. It’s when the most people are watching, and it’s the time and day of the week most associated with NFL football. As such, it seems unlikely that deep-pocketed streamers would allow legacy networks like Fox and CBS to keep these packages for themselves. At the same time, streamers don’t necessarily want every game. Airing a Kansas City Chiefs-Buffalo Bills game is very cool! Sending a huge production team to Jacksonville for a Jaguars-Panthers game is not.
Streamers want to “eventize” their own game, so selling the best Sunday afternoon games in a separate package allows streamers to buy what they want, and leave what they don’t.
Here’s how it would work. In this scenario, Netflix and Amazon become the “A” NFL partners on Sunday afternoon. Both streamers would air one game each week in the 1 p.m. ET window. Then, they’d alternate weeks in which they aired the 4:25 p.m. ET national window game, similar to the current arrangement between Fox and CBS in which those networks alternate weeks in which they air a doubleheader.
In total, that’s three Sunday afternoon games per week that will air on Netflix or Amazon. And in order to ensure the streamers get their favored games, they’d conduct mini-drafts of the Sunday afternoon slate a few weeks prior to that week’s games. Say Netflix held the premier national window game in Week 8. After Week 5’s games conclude, Netflix would pick their favorite Sunday afternoon game on the Week 8 schedule to be played at 4:25 p.m. ET. Amazon would then select their favorite Sunday afternoon game to go in their 1 p.m. ET window, and Netflix would get the third selection for their early-afternoon game.
The leftovers? They’ll go to Fox and CBS.
Sunday afternoon “B” package: Fox and CBS
Unfortunately for these legacy broadcasters, their status as second-class will be solidified in the new deals. As much as Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch says he’d like to expand his network’s relationship with the NFL after the league inevitably opts out of their current agreements, it just doesn’t make sense for the league to do so.
And to add insult to injury, Fox and CBS will almost certainly pay a premium just to remain in the fold. They truly have no other option. NFL games are the only programming that allow Fox and CBS to continue negotiating high retransmission fees with pay TV distributors. Without NFL games, these fees, which are the backbone of Fox and CBS’s respective businesses, will all but certainly decline, leaving the networks in free fall.
The NFL knows this and can exert maximum leverage on Fox and CBS. That dynamic is much different than the streamers, who don’t necessarily “need” the NFL. It’s also different from other linear network partners like Comcast-owned NBC and Disney-owned ESPN. Both have strong corporate backing and diversified businesses. Fox and CBS do not.
Knowing that their entire businesses are in jeopardy should they lose the NFL, Fox and CBS will take what they can get. In 2030, that will likely be whatever games Netflix and Amazon don’t want. Fox and CBS will split the seven to nine Sunday afternoon NFL games that aren’t carved off for the “A” package or part of another exclusive window like Sunday Night Football. They’ll air the bottom half of the league’s slate that week, and the games will be split up regionally as is the current practice.
While this new reality might frustrate Fox and CBS, it’ll actually be a good setup for fans (assuming they subscribe to Netflix and Amazon). No longer are fans in the Cleveland market stuck watching Browns games every week. If they want a better matchup, they can flip on Netflix or Amazon, while still having the option to watch their local team.
And in the end, the NFL gets to maximize the value of its media rights by splitting what used to be two packages into four.
Sunday Night Football: NBC/Peacock
NBC will retain its Sunday Night Football package when the league renegotiates its media deals. The network has gone all-in on its Sunday night sports programming. For the next 11 years, NBC will be airing a Sunday Night Basketball package for the NBA. There are reports suggesting that NBC is also interested in acquiring Sunday Night Baseball after ESPN decided to exit its deal with MLB earlier this year. There’s no way NBC will willingly give up Sunday Night Football, the anchor to that corporate synergy.
And the NFL has little reason to put the package somewhere else. Keeping Sunday Night Football with NBC means that the package will air on both a widely available broadcast network and a major streaming platform, Peacock. NBC, with its Comcast-backing, has more than enough in the coffers to give the NFL a sizeable bump in rights fee. And the network’s presentation of the package is received positively by fans.
The NFL knows that there is value in continuity, and with all of the other changes that will likely happen in 2030, keeping Sunday Night Football on NBC seems like a good decision to prevent the perception of “too much, too fast.”
Monday Night Football: ESPN/ABC
Likewise, Monday Night Football seems destined to stay on ESPN. There’s no world where ESPN exits the NFL business and vice versa. And with ESPN likely to own and operate NFL Media by the time 2030 rolls around, the two entities will be even more interconnected.
There’s value for the NFL to be associated with ESPN. Even as the network tries to shake its “Worldwide Leader” moniker, it remains true that ESPN holds massive sway as sports media’s agenda setter. Moreover, by 2030, ESPN will be five years into the launch of its direct-to-consumer product, which the network hopes will eventually become the hub for all live sports. Undoubtedly, ESPN will be one of the first places NFL fans turn to for content about the league year-round, so keeping a premier package on the network seems like a must.
Monday Night Football remaining on ESPN can also make the same accessibility arguments that NBC’s Sunday Night Football can. There will be a broadcast presence on ABC. ESPN is one of the most widely distributed cable channels in the country. And there will also be a direct-to-consumer option with ESPN’s streamer having five years to establish itself as a destination for sports content.
In the spirit of not causing too much disruption and angst among its fans, keeping Monday Night Football on ESPN would seem to be a smart move by the NFL.
Odds and ends
A few things to address before signing off.
One, it’s likely that no matter what the NFL decides to do in 2030, games will continue to air for free on a broadcast network in a team’s local market. That means even if Amazon has a Dallas Cowboys game, fans in the Dallas-Fort Worth media market will still be able to access the broadcast for free through traditional means.
Two, there’s still likely to be plenty of one-off streaming exclusives. The NFL is notorious for not having all of its game inventory accounted for during media rights negotiations. That’s how we’ve gotten Week 1 games in Brazil that air on Peacock or YouTube, Black Friday games on Amazon, and Wild Card games on Peacock and Amazon in recent years. So while this post covers the broad strokes of what the NFL could do, it’ll likely leave itself some wiggle room to experiment on other platforms.
Three, by no means should this post be taken as gospel. As the headline says, this is a prediction, though I’d like to believe it’s an educated one. Plenty can change in five years, but it’s safe to say that watching the NFL in 2030 will look much different than it does in 2025.